Posted February 01, 2014
my name is catte
i touch your foods
my name is catte Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Mar 2010
From United Kingdom
Telika
Registered: Apr 2012
From Switzerland
Posted February 01, 2014
I love how absolutely no one seems to care. I may be tired, but, is that an obvious rhetorical joke, or is there something here ?
amok
FREEEEDOOOM!!!!
amok Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Sep 2008
From United Kingdom
Posted February 01, 2014
amok: Depends how you look at it...
Since the draw of being scum is not related to whether one was scum or not before, the chance of being so is the same for each game. Lets say 1/4 (3/12). So if he was scum in the last game, his chances for being scum in this is 1/4, and his chances of being scum in this game if he was town in the last game is also 1/4.
SirPrimalform: That was exactly my point (but you actually explained it instead of just being snarky like me). Chances of being scum in any given game aren't in any way affected by previous games. Since the draw of being scum is not related to whether one was scum or not before, the chance of being so is the same for each game. Lets say 1/4 (3/12). So if he was scum in the last game, his chances for being scum in this is 1/4, and his chances of being scum in this game if he was town in the last game is also 1/4.
So in other words, it doesn't depend on how you look at it.
I'm not quite sure what you meant by "Depends how you look at it..." when you just went on to agree with me. :P
You can calculate the chance for getting drawn as scum (the 1/4 chance) in 1 draw, 2 draws, 3 draws and so on. It should be a binominal distribution calculation (Bernoulli / fail or success calculation)
DarkoD13
No Strings On Me
DarkoD13 Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Feb 2013
From Greece
my name is catte
i touch your foods
my name is catte Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Mar 2010
From United Kingdom
Posted February 01, 2014
amok: Because you can also start calculating the chances of how many times that 1/4 chance hits or do not hit :)
You can calculate the chance for getting drawn as scum (the 1/4 chance) in 1 draw, 2 draws, 3 draws and so on. It should be a binominal distribution calculation (Bernoulli / fail or success calculation)
But how does that have any bearing on what RB was saying? Previous games don't have an effect on the likelihood of anyone being mafia in this game. :PYou can calculate the chance for getting drawn as scum (the 1/4 chance) in 1 draw, 2 draws, 3 draws and so on. It should be a binominal distribution calculation (Bernoulli / fail or success calculation)
Vitek
Master of Karate and friendship for everyone
Vitek Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2009
From British Indian Ocean Territory
Posted February 01, 2014
I am not the one to beat around the bush. :-p
But pazzer has history of claiming day ability before so I would wait with accepting his claim.
Telika: I love how absolutely no one seems to care. I may be tired, but, is that an obvious rhetorical joke, or is there something here ?
Gah, I read start of that sentence then skipped to end, even wondered if I should ask what day cop is he talking about and if I should correct him about CSPVG but then I decided to leave it. But pazzer has history of claiming day ability before so I would wait with accepting his claim.
amok
FREEEEDOOOM!!!!
amok Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Sep 2008
From United Kingdom
Telika
Registered: Apr 2012
From Switzerland
Posted February 01, 2014
Well, I'd appreciate a little dialogue between Pazzer and Flub, here.
Vitek
Master of Karate and friendship for everyone
Vitek Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2009
From British Indian Ocean Territory
Posted February 01, 2014
I meant fake day abilities in my previous post.
my name is catte
i touch your foods
my name is catte Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Mar 2010
From United Kingdom
Telika
Registered: Apr 2012
From Switzerland
JoeSapphire
Consultant Liar
JoeSapphire Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jun 2011
From United Kingdom
Posted February 01, 2014
Well yes I know NOW whether or not they were all telling the truth but please let me get to that in my own time!
Telika had been voted for by Telika, nmillar.
JMich had been voted for by nobody.
Flubbucket had been voted for by pazzer .
pazzer had been voted for by nobody.
Robbeasy had been voted for by nobody.
Vitek had been voted for by P1na.
p1na had been voted for by nobody.
amok had been voted for by DarkoD13, red_baron.
DarkoD13 had been voted for by nobody.
CSPVG had been voted for by nobody.
Twilightbard had been voted for by nobody.
SirPrimalform had been voted for by nobody
nmillar had been voted for by Robbeasy, SirPrimalform
Red_Baron had been voted for by amokand Vitek.
and, yes!
There is no-one else.
meaning that Telika, amok, nmillar and red_baron were just just SIX votes away from a majority vote!!! I could hardly breathe!
While that was going on Twilightbard, and CSPVG, and JMich flubbucket were conspicuous in that they had voted for nobody at all!
And I remember being in bed by 7th Feb o'clock.
Telika had been voted for by Telika, nmillar.
JMich had been voted for by nobody.
Flubbucket had been voted for by pazzer .
pazzer had been voted for by nobody.
Robbeasy had been voted for by nobody.
Vitek had been voted for by P1na.
p1na had been voted for by nobody.
amok had been voted for by DarkoD13, red_baron.
DarkoD13 had been voted for by nobody.
CSPVG had been voted for by nobody.
Twilightbard had been voted for by nobody.
SirPrimalform had been voted for by nobody
nmillar had been voted for by Robbeasy, SirPrimalform
Red_Baron had been voted for by amokand Vitek.
and, yes!
There is no-one else.
meaning that Telika, amok, nmillar and red_baron were just just SIX votes away from a majority vote!!! I could hardly breathe!
While that was going on Twilightbard, and CSPVG, and JMich flubbucket were conspicuous in that they had voted for nobody at all!
And I remember being in bed by 7th Feb o'clock.
Post edited February 01, 2014 by JoeSapphire
Red_Baron
Best Rant Ever!
Red_Baron Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Nov 2009
From Denmark
Posted February 01, 2014
pazzer: -snip-
I saw your vote as critical as belive i'm right in saying at that point amok and red were on a similar number of votes. So if you'd moved your vote in all likely hood one of them would have been lynched.
-snip-
I don't believe I was that close to a lynch, but heck if I had been lynched I would have kept our proud and sad tradition alive. I saw your vote as critical as belive i'm right in saying at that point amok and red were on a similar number of votes. So if you'd moved your vote in all likely hood one of them would have been lynched.
-snip-
Oh and yes, of course I am. We constantly bigger because I keep forgetting that he is my underling and argues with him, while he doesn't know who I am, but based on the portraits on the walls he is guessing that I am either the mayer he was about to kill or his don. :P
Great, another claim.... If all of these are true claims we really gotta think carefully about this lynch......, so lynch amok :P
Vitek: '-snip-
Only impression I got form this is that you are trying to avoid being "metaed" so it can't be used against you.
Sorry, I am not going to grant your request.
But seriously, look at it and tell me it is not the same situation as here.
-snip-
I also said that your LAL is mostly null for you. Thanks to meta. It's not why I am voting you.
-snip-
As long as the meta isn't the reason you are voting, then feel free to judge on whatever you believe you can. I took a look back and I do recall something about sisters with Robbeasy and me hammering to win, but that is about it. And if I recall in that game I was way way absentminded given that my focus was on something entirely else - my master project. So again, you are welcome to try to meta, but you can't predict anything from it. Not because I want to discredit it, but because I am a very very random person and as such I would consider it unlikely you can compare one reaction of mine in one game to a reaction in another - even if we had had those who shall not be named in the first game, the fact that it was a game where I barely read before responding doesn't really help. Only impression I got form this is that you are trying to avoid being "metaed" so it can't be used against you.
Sorry, I am not going to grant your request.
But seriously, look at it and tell me it is not the same situation as here.
-snip-
I also said that your LAL is mostly null for you. Thanks to meta. It's not why I am voting you.
-snip-
But yes, as long as that is not the sole reason I see no reason to discuss this would you, I would just hate to see it used as the argument, because it would be impossible to explain, refute and be completely wrong as to whom I am ;)
Quoted for truth :)
my name is catte
i touch your foods
my name is catte Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Mar 2010
From United Kingdom
Telika
Registered: Apr 2012
From Switzerland