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Robbeasy: ok.

Unvote Muttly

That makes things a lot clearer.

Vote Twilight

Theres role-fishing, and then theres role-fishing.
What exactly do you consider as fishing? Part about muttly? About itai?
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Vitek: Pegging another of them? So you investigated mafia on night 2? Why don't you share it then? I don't think there is reason not to now.
Please tell me you are not serious. It is clear he investigated town and he won't tell because if he will then that player is dead. Thus rendering our cop useless.

And in order to answer TB I will take you through my thought process examining Muttly-Baron discussion.

First:
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muttly13: I would love to hear explanation for any of this Red_Baron...
This is the post that started it all - a weak case against Baron. Please take note of the fact that Muttly is not voting but asking for clarification.

A WOT attack by Baron quickly followed this post which led to Muttly vote on post 447 but that is not the interesting part. The good stuff comes a little after a few more WOT attacks by Baron.
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muttly13: His deep suspicion of me started right after I pressed him for info in with a single post, really? If that doesnt define hitting the mark, I dont know what does.
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muttly13: I requested information from Baron. Clearly I was leaning on him as scum. However, I offered the opportunity to respond, and he did, in most hysterical fashion
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muttly13: That is what ultimately prompted my vote, his complete overreaction made me believe my theory was rock solid
Many more quotes declaring that it was the REACTION of Baron that prompted the vote. But I chose to include those three because it is easily explained with them.
Now, why would the reaction prompt a vote? Simple, it was the first night action and a cop hitting non-town on his first investigation must ask himself this - am I SANE? An overreaction in the form of 11 pages PDF confirms that I suppose.

The last nail in the coffin came just after Baron claimed survivor.
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muttly13: I actually believe this claim. Basically because its about the only thing I would have believed
Why is this the only thing Muttly would have believed? Because investigation on a survivor flips non-town. Actually, if you think hard about Baron's claim, you understand he is a "one shot" (serial?) killer.

I would like to emphasize that this all dawned on me only after post 572.

Second:
Hitting survivor is THE toughest thing to do. Had he spotted a mafia, I could agree with Vitek about the bussing theory - but hitting survivor (serial killer) is hard even if you are mafia. This sums up the parallel thought process that made me believe he is town, and that is why I said I don't believe luck was involved.

I would say the town has played as a bunch of hypocrites who blamed Muttly for the starting a wagon that six more players supported.

The second part of my post will address TB's accusation of me not throwing my vote all around. This stems from the fact that all mafia members are still alive which could easily lead to a claim that, let me check, has actually happened on the worst possible town member.

Third, Rob's vote on TB can be interpreted in three ways:
1. Trying to bus the most likely mafia member to be lynched.
2. Signaling the most likely mis-lynch.
3. Voting for the one he actually thinks is mafia.

However, I did not hide the fact that Rob is my top suspect and as such I find option three the least likely.

Came out quite long, sorry about that.
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TwilightBard: Interesting that you say it's 'clear' that I've seen your breadcrumbs. I'd like an elaboration on what breadcrumbs you mean, because I don't make a habit of looking for them (and since you've said it, it's your burden to prove it.), actually, any breadcrumbing that's been in games I've been in has had to have been spelt out for me to notice <.<.
Sure thing...

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TwilightBard: ... I have two conclusions to draw from this, and one of those is him being Mafia, which I fully believe he is.
...
You state the obvious conclusion you came to, you beleiveing I am scum, but never mention your other path of thought. At this point I feel you had ID'ed my role. Obviously I dont know it for sure, but after this point you went from your "lynching a lurker" being your primary focus to picking up Barons arguments with more gusto.

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TwilightBard: I don't like that you're not willing to be forward with information, especially at this point. It feels like a ruse to keep you from being lynched. I'd also like to know how your results were being given to you, town/not town?
Of course its an attempt not to get lynched. Again, I cant do much for anyone if I am dead. I also feel at this point it can do town more harm then good. No, my results are not given as Town/Mafia, they are given as Killer/Not a Killer. Which, with hindsight, got me into trouble with Baron.

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TwilightBard: I believe the claim, it makes sense when putting the pieces together. Muttly, please correct me if I'm wrong but you pushed Lynch All Lurkers to remove possible people who'd you investigate and find town, aka, pushing for people to say more and thus get better reads?
In large part within this game, yes. Outside this particular game however, I beleive lurking is the worst form of play. First, it instatnly gets you tagged as possible scum. Second, you are offering nothing to town players if you are town save for making them suspect the wrong people. In other words, you are actively playing against town. Just dont play then. If we were more adamant about lynching lurkers here, people in general would start posting more frequently. As it stands now it is clear (Z also pointed this out D1) that posting on GOG Mafia is predominately a negative and remaing generally quite will get you through the day.

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TwilightBard: Your comment today when the day first started sounded really scummy still, and if you weren't a target for scum you sure as hell made yourself one then.
Not sure exactly what quote your talking about here. What makes me a target is my claim, little I could do about that since I have been placed in the position of claiming to at elast share whatever I could with town.
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itai.sharim: Please tell me you are not serious. It is clear he investigated town and he won't tell because if he will then that player is dead. Thus rendering our cop useless.
Interesting. Please tell me you are not serious. Why it will render our cop useless? Why is the player dead? Why do you think mafia will pick that player over cop?
And he said "pegging another of them". Unless he considers Red_Baron part of mafia he sounded like he got scum on N2.
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Vitek: Interesting. Please tell me you are not serious. Why it will render our cop useless? Why is the player dead? Why do you think mafia will pick that player over cop?
Take a look at what Pazzer did game 2 (I think) when he was cop. Each day he revealed his night action, and the following night this guy was dead. How is it not rendering cop useless?

By the pegging another one of them I think he meant TB. (?)
Our doctor is dead why do you think muttly will survive the night? It's better to learn who is town today, than never.
I was hoping to avoid this as I realized it was poor wording on my part to accomplish what i was looking for. But it is becoming a distracting topic so I will answer. The wording was specific to see if i could drive out any additional scum before the NK. I suppose I should have thought better of this but I couldnt be sure people would believe my claim and would last very long. Anyway, as I mentioned it all already out there...

N2 - Vitek - Not a killer (in fact something of a light weight in the flavor text :)).

For those still wondering about the breadcrumbs, check out the words and phrases I use when addressing specifics : investigate, case, bust, etc... Not terribly obvious, but pretty clear as well. I was looking for a decent balance between easy enough to see (as I have experienced the "code" messages and no one ever seems to pick up on them) and not totally apparent to the scum I was a cop. Obviously on either level I have failed somewhere, sorry about that.

Anyway, here are my concerns about outing Vitek:

1 - Since I believe TB to be scum and had ID'ed my breadcrumbs, I must also think they may have been able to manipulate the read I was given. This is by no means 100%, or even 10%, but i cant in good conscience simply declare its correct. I was hoping for a N3 to get a better idea on this.

2 - Mentioning it immediately and then being insta-lynched was a possibility. I didnt want to risk putting Vitek out there as an immediate NK. not that the scum dont already know if he is/isnt town, but I felt that would put undue pressure on him.

3 - Insane - pretty sure I am not as Barons read was dead on.
Votecount:

3 - Twilightbard (Muttly, Stuart, Robbeasy)
1 - Muttly13 (Pazzer)
1 - Vitek (Joesapphire)
1 - Itai.sharim (Twilightbard)

Not voting: Vitek, Itai.sharim, Peanutbrittle

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is 1am GMT 5 February.
I am now 100% convinced Muttly is telling the truth.

Vote on Twilight stays.
Hrm, I'm pretty convinced too.

TwilightBard has been my backup suspect all day, so I'm going to go ahead and vote TwilightBard.
unvote twilightbard Just dont want to make it easy on the scum before TB has a chance to respond. Perfectly willing to return my vote in the future if needed.
I guessed it's me. :-)

I have to say I wouldn't be able to pick up on these crumbs.
Well, like I said I failed somewhere. Probably on both sides it seems. I guess the "not to obvious" part came out okay :).

So, I would like to know why you think TB is such a townie.
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Vitek: Our doctor is dead why do you think muttly will survive the night? It's better to learn who is town today, than never.
Is this a trick question? Will I get accused of suggesting mafia night actions if I answer this? (I know Muttly has already answered this, but you asked me a question so...).
I guess I have no choice but to claim. I'm John Smith (Town Vanilla). I'm a family man who lives locally, I have nothing to do with the company. I'm a down on his luck guy who snuck in for free food and an attempt to mingle with the powerful people. The only thing I have that might be interesting, is that I'm not the only one with my name. The other John Smith is the Sales Manager responsible for making a profit from this launch.

And I'd like to point out that the only 'case' against me is I 'dared' to think that the town cop was scum. Unfortunately, what I saw was the strongest case in the game.

Muttly....yeah, there's no way in hell I would have noticed those breadcrumbs. You're gonna lynch a townie because you refuse to consider the fact that you just looked scummy.

Actually, I admit I had guessed that there was the possibility that Muttly might be a cop. Look at the quote I took from Itai in my last post, about how it wasn't luck with Baron. Isn't it odd that everyone else thought there was an element of luck because we thought Muttly was scum, but Itai seemed to believe Muttly knew about Baron the entire time?

Believe me, or not, I know what my alignment is, and I'd look at Rob and Peanut if you guys do decide to lynch me. Very quick to flip flop around. Especially Peanut who came out with no case against me, but refers to me as his backup lynch.

Tomorrow's LyLo if I'm lynched anyway, so I would be very careful if this is what you guys end up choosing to do.