Liberty: Romney's confidence and Obama's lack of energy might also be indicative of the internal polling both campaigns have.
tangledblue11: Interesting point. I teach MBA courses and - specifically - stats for business on occasion and my class had a similar discussion last night. I've noticed that the polls seem to favor Romney big time despite the spin for Obama surrounding them. In particular, Romney is always leading independents, middle class voters, and consistently on top on the issue of the economy. Under no circumstances can that possibly translate to an Obama win.
Obama seems to be modelling his campaign after FDR's 1936 campaign (where FDR won almost every state in the country). In 1940 and 1944, the elections were dominated more by World War 2. So, aside from FDR's landslide victory, what else is unique about 1936?
In every presidential election, the incumbent president gets thrown out if there is a bad economy. It has been a trend that has gone on for hundreds of years. During the Long Depression, both political parties kept being thrown out each election cycle since the economy stayed bad.
1936 is a unique exception. Despite the Great Depression, FDR won re-election in a landslide. FDR campaigned against Wall Street, against Hoover, against the banks, and soon. Obama seemed to channel similar statements.
I decided to look it up and found something interesting. FDR's opponent, Landen, campaigned on the same exact terms that FDR did. The Democratic Party actually complained Landen was stealing their campaign which he replied, "Why not?" The only differentiating element was Landen saying FDR was abusive and reckless to the government. Landen also gave no plan to recover the economy. So it seems like the anomaly of the 1936 election has more to do with Landen than with FDR.
Those polls you see are trash. There is no money spent on them and are lazily done (usually polling inner cities since they are easiest to reach). The internal polls are more interesting since they manage the millions of dollars of campaign money and the candidates' precious time. The public polls are only slapped on a newspaper and then forgotten. They tend to poll adults or voters but rarely likely voters.
I do think the internal polling may be why Romney seems energized and Obama deflated. Back in 2008, remember that Obama took a plane ride to Hawaii at the end of the campaign. He had the internal numbers that he would win. And McCain, just as bizarrely, suspended his campaign. He knew he would lose.
There are already 2012
votes available. We can compare early voting in Ohio in 2012 compared to 2008. The Rs are way up. The Ds are way down in absentees. This is not for just one county but all of them. In 2008, the Ds were outperforming at this time. If this holds up, Ohio could go to Romney by four to five points. Romney, himself, stated recently, "I will win Ohio" as if it is already done. Lately, I've seen Romney in PA. During the debate, he made a comment like "I love coal" which indicates he is targeting PA. I think the Romney Campaign has even flirted with getting Oregon as Ryan was there recently (there is a large libertarian population in the state). Although, I think they're more targeting PA.
