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General discussionUkrainian Civil War in progress?(1767 posts) (1767 posts) 
(1767 posts) 
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This is my favourite topic
Posted March 15, 2014
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Matruchus: Ok I understand the reasoning behind this and this is good since it makes people safe. The only problem is that there is no way to really be sure if there is going to be more or less people then 50.000. The other guy should really not comment if he is not fluent enough that other people can understand him.

We have different regulation here. The demonstration needs to be registered at the police so they automatically protect the demonstrators. The organizators of the protest always have to provide private security forces to protect the demonstrators against other demonstrators. The organizaters of the demonstrations can be only fined if they don't registrate the demonstration with the police and the size of the demonstration is not important.
A demonstration as I see it is (supposed to be) a well-planned event when you more or less know who's going to participate beforehand. If, say, party A says it will bring 5,000 people, party B - 3,000 and party C - 1,800, you will hardly get over 10,000 people in total. But just to be safe you can declare there will be "no more than 25,000 people" and all's well. That gives the police the idea how many people to dispatch to ensure the safety of the demonstration. I'm not sure about private security forces, but most likely that's not one of the requirements.
Post edited March 15, 2014 by Sanjuro
Posted March 16, 2014
Did already someone mention the transparent boxes in the vote? Makes things considerably easier, you just need to compare the heights. Sorry for any sarcasm, the problem is now that we will have a vote that is not much worth. Some people will justify their future actions with it, others will oppose it for exactly the same reason - a messy situation that maybe could have been avoided if only ....
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Trilarion: As far as I have understood it it's not the same as the status quo, as it is right now. The 1992 constitution which was in effect only for a very short term already gives Crimea much more freedom, also the right to secede from Ukraine. If this is true then one should conclude that there is no option that everything stays as it is (not factual but legal). One could imagine a bit more fair question.

My source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/12/crimea-vote-join-russia-ballot-no-option_n_4947557.html
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Sanjuro: I'll look into it in the morning. Might be true, might be not. If it is true... ...
Btw, did you find some time to investigate? Is it true that there is no option given to just stay in Ukraine as it is right now?
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Trilarion
Posted March 16, 2014
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Trilarion: Did already someone mention the transparent boxes in the vote? Makes things considerably easier, you just need to compare the heights. Sorry for any sarcasm, the problem is now that we will have a vote that is not much worth. Some people will justify their future actions with it, others will oppose it for exactly the same reason - a messy situation that maybe could have been avoided if only ....
Yes I saw the video from the voting place in Simferopol. There is no freedom of voting on this referendum since everybody can see what you have voted for. I don't know any democratic country that would do that. These transparent boxes are normal in dictatorships where police looks over your shoulder at what you have voted for.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Matruchus
Posted March 16, 2014
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Trilarion: Did already someone mention the transparent boxes in the vote? Makes things considerably easier, you just need to compare the heights. Sorry for any sarcasm, the problem is now that we will have a vote that is not much worth. Some people will justify their future actions with it, others will oppose it for exactly the same reason - a messy situation that maybe could have been avoided if only ....
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Sanjuro: I'll look into it in the morning. Might be true, might be not. If it is true... ...
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Trilarion: Btw, did you find some time to investigate? Is it true that there is no option given to just stay in Ukraine as it is right now?
There is no option for Crimea to stay in Ukraine. The second voting possibility is this: Are you in favor of restoring the 1992 Constitution and the status of Crimea as a part of Ukraine?" This means looking at the laws from that time which enable Crimea to become part of Russia whenever it wants to and making Crimea not part of Ukraine but some kind of autonomus region who is only officialy part of Ukraine but can do whatever it wants to do and especially since the new Crimea leadership was installed by Moscow this is just another way of annexation. The above possibility would mean forcing the change of Ukrainian constitution whitout the will of the majority of the Ukrainian population to the constitution of 1992 and Ukrainian parlament can not allow that.

For clarification about Crimea constitution from 1992 a link to wikipedia about it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Crimea

It is interesting that all the websites from the Crimea Verhovna Rada (parliament) of Crimea have been shutdown.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Matruchus
Posted March 16, 2014
So with a hastened vote in a fearful environment with all options very likely resulting in being incorporated in Russia anyway, I guess, nobody could really blame the non russian parts of the people on Crimea if they would not acknowledge the vote.

Of course they will think twice about possibly doing so because this would be very dangerous, but if they did, what would happen? Are the Russian troops prepared to kill to enforce their claim reasoning something like: It's ours now.

Also what about the Ukrainian military bases? Will they just go away as would probably the wisest thing to do. What if not?
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Trilarion
Posted March 16, 2014
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Trilarion: So with a hastened vote in a fearful environment with all options very likely resulting in being incorporated in Russia anyway, I guess, nobody could really blame the non russian parts of the people on Crimea if they would not acknowledge the vote.

Of course they will think twice about possibly doing so because this would be very dangerous, but if they did, what would happen? Are the Russian troops prepared to kill to enforce their claim reasoning something like: It's ours now.

Also what about the Ukrainian military bases? Will they just go away as would probably the wisest thing to do. What if not?
Well I think they won't go anywhere at the moment since yesterday Russia already started to make a grab for south Ukraine the village Strilkove, Khersons'ka oblast, Ukraine where they have taken over a gas platform there (gasanlage).
And there are already indications that they will go for the Donetzk region also and that is the reason why Ukrainian army can not go to Crimea or they will lose east Ukraine with time. Besides the Ukrainian soldiers there have already received an offer from Russia for them to go become part of regular Russian army.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Matruchus
Posted March 16, 2014
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Matruchus: ...And there are already indications that they will go for the Donetzk region also and that is the reason why Ukrainian army can not go to Crimea or they will lose east Ukraine with time. Besides the Ukrainian soldiers there have already received an offer from Russia for them to go become part of regular Russian army.
I didn't mean go to Crimea but go from Crimea away. And how high is the risk of Putin invading substantially in other parts of Ukraine in the next weeks? What will the Ukraine do then? What will the West do then?

That's a big part of the problem. Everyone else is scared and nobody trusts Putin. In such situations the economy must suffer, because business can only grow in secure times. And Putin is not doing much in terms for negotiations for helping there either.

For me it looks like the actions of someone who thinks there are no other options anyway, like somebody who is cornered or like somebody for whom military considerations take much higher priorities to any other considerations.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Trilarion
Posted March 16, 2014
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Trilarion: I didn't mean go to Crimea but go from Crimea away. And how high is the risk of Putin invading substantially in other parts of Ukraine in the next weeks? What will the Ukraine do then? What will the West do then?
Still nothing militarily, I suspect. I think Europe would get more on-board with intense sanctions but no one's going to war over Ukraine. Maybe a cold war where we give them weapons and shit, but nothing else.

Which... you know... is a bad thing or good thing, depending on perspective.


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Rodor: Alas, difference is delusive here, that what I'm talking about. We both are slaves, if you like it or not. To argue about the grades of shit - no, thank you.
99.999% of the planet serves someone else, at the end of the day. However to act like these "masters" don't vary in quality and accountability is to be pretty dense indeed.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by StingingVelvet
Posted March 16, 2014
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Matruchus: ...And there are already indications that they will go for the Donetzk region also and that is the reason why Ukrainian army can not go to Crimea or they will lose east Ukraine with time. Besides the Ukrainian soldiers there have already received an offer from Russia for them to go become part of regular Russian army.
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Trilarion: I didn't mean go to Crimea but go from Crimea away. And how high is the risk of Putin invading substantially in other parts of Ukraine in the next weeks? What will the Ukraine do then? What will the West do then?

That's a big part of the problem. Everyone else is scared and nobody trusts Putin. In such situations the economy must suffer, because business can only grow in secure times. And Putin is not doing much in terms for negotiations for helping there either.

For me it looks like the actions of someone who thinks there are no other options anyway, like somebody who is cornered or like somebody for whom military considerations take much higher priorities to any other considerations.
Yes I understood your question and no they will not go from Crimea since even if the referendum is successful for Russia which it will obivously be they can not leave Crimea since it is still legally part of Ukraine since this referendum is illegal in any possible way by interantional law. The Ukraine will not move or do anything since any military move would be cause enough for Russia to invade East Ukraine, especially the region of Donetzk where there are big pro-russian protests held daily now. The west will probably do nothing at this point since it is very dependent on Russian energents - gas, oil and exports to Russia. Especially dependent is Germany since a big amount of german exports go to Russia (15% is the official number at the moment). There will be small sanctions against several "rich" people from Russia supposedly responsible for the invasion (Putin exception) and that will be all. Till now US and every other western country did not do anything but treathen and do nothing.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Matruchus
Posted March 16, 2014
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Matruchus: .
Kosovo je Srbija?
Posted March 16, 2014
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Matruchus: .
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DarzaR: Kosovo je Srbija?
Was Serbia before but now since 2008 it it is an Albanian country called Kosovo with Serbian minority. That is another balkan powderkeg there.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by Matruchus
Posted March 16, 2014
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DarzaR: Kosovo je Srbija?
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Matruchus: Was Serbia before but now it it is an Albanian country with Serbian minority. That is another balkan powderkeg there.
South Ossetia is Georgia?
Post edited March 16, 2014 by DarzaR
Posted March 16, 2014
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Matruchus: Was Serbia before but now it it is an Albanian country with Serbian minority. That is another balkan powderkeg there.
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DarzaR: South Ossetia is Georgian?
Can't say anything about that since I don't know that part of the world. And nice testing my history knowledge :)
Posted March 16, 2014
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DarzaR: South Ossetia is Georgian?
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Matruchus: Can't say anything about that since I don't know that part of the world. And nice testing my history knowledge :)
Its geography knowledge in this certain case. Simply trying to get if you are sincerely just like to discuss with serious face the stuff you have little glue about, or you are applying the some sort of humour sence all the time. Ill bring my excuses if its the second option, and i wasnt able to get it from start due to language barrier.
Post edited March 16, 2014 by DarzaR
Posted March 16, 2014
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Matruchus: Can't say anything about that since I don't know that part of the world. And nice testing my history knowledge :)
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DarzaR: Its geography in this certain case. Simply trying to get if you are sincerely just like to discuss with serious face the stuff you have little glue about, or you are applying the some sort of humour sence all the time. Ill bring my excuses if its the second option, and i wasnt able to get it from start due to landuage barrier.
I can speak with you about Serbia and Kosovo that is not a problem since I am from one of the countries that was part of Yugoslavia long time ago but about Ossetia I don't know much. And geographically Kosovo was part of Serbia before but it is not anymore.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionUkrainian Civil War in progress?(1767 posts) (1767 posts) 
(1767 posts)