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Dray2k: Right now noteable experts and institutions regional and international worldwide consider that 9 out of 10 people may already be infected but simply don't notice anything or have a running nose or a very slight fever at worst, which brings me back to a previous discussion. It kooks like that 4.5 million "infectious" people already exist that at worst merely show minimal signs of covid-19, I could be this person or you could be it. Nobody is able to test such amount of people already. At any case, don't worry.
Where are you getting your info from? What on earth are 'Noteable experts and institutions regional and international worldwide'? Because they seem to be talking out of their ass, considering a runny nose isn't a symptom of this corona virus.

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Oghamis98: OK, cases are now reported to be over 50,000 (currently at around the 65 thousand or so mark) in the USA. Iran and Spain have it even worse, with satellite images showing that there's more deaths in the former than what the current government is claiming. Greece is going through similar lockdown measures as Italy right now.
How does one count deaths through satellite imagery? Even if there's someone out there combing through images looking for funerals :D, we wouldn't know if that's due to the virus.
Post edited March 27, 2020 by babark
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babark: How does one count deaths through satellite imagery? Even if there's someone out there combing through images looking for funerals :D, we wouldn't know if that's due to the virus.
There were claims that some satellite photos showed large mass graves, but iirc that has been debunked. But from everything one reads on the net, the situation in Iran does seem to be pretty terrible, the official death toll is probably too low.
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babark: Where are you getting your info from? What on earth are 'Noteable experts and institutions regional and international worldwide'? Because they seem to be talking out of their ass, considering a runny nose isn't a symptom of this corona virus.
Here, an Oxford (UK) study :
[url=https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0]https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0[/url]

I don't have the mathematical level to judge their work (based until 19/03/2020 figures), but it seems to me that if they are right that the number of death /day should have already lowered in Italy and shouldn't augment so much in UK.

That's not what I see.

There is something I must not understand (so I'll stick for now to the Imperial college studies)
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francksteel: Here, an Oxford (UK) study :
[url=https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0]https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20(13).pdf?dl=0[/url]

I don't have the mathematical level to judge their work (based until 19/03/2020 figures), but it seems to me that if they are right that the number of death /day should have already lowered in Italy and shouldn't augment so much in UK.

That's not what I see.

There is something I must not understand (so I'll stick for now to the Imperial college studies)
Thanks for the info! It may be correct or wrong, but I'll wait for it to be peer reviewed or published in a journal before I solidify any takeaways. Either way, reality and day-to-day findings should either prove or disprove the model.

Also, an interesting, to-the-point interview with Dr. Fauci. More relevant to people in the US, but still has a lot of useful info, and also very relevant in what it DOESN'T mention, and what a lot of quackery being spread online DOES mention.
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toxicTom: I got one pack of toilet paper! And pasta! And rice!

200 XP well earned... XD
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falloutttt: I'll trade a can of beans, for one pack of toilet paper.
I'll give you Trump, Biden, and 3 packs of toilet paper for the beans.
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babark: Also, an interesting, to-the-point interview with Dr. Fauci. More relevant to people in the US, but still has a lot of useful info, and also very relevant in what it DOESN'T mention, and what a lot of quackery being spread online DOES mention.
Thanks for the interview, very clear and understandable for me (I'm not very good in listening english)

We should have had someone like this (and being really listened to) in France a month ago (and USA should have it 2 weeks ago)

We had this very very interesting video on march 13 in France .
That's a also about how France and Belgium governments killed health system and didn't take the correct decisions in the last years, how journalists covered the beginning of the spread, how governments are already taking actions to "save" economy but are still not taking the urgent actions for hospitals.* (FYI, in France our government was more prone to up the age of retirement, up the number of hours of work per week for workers, autorized entreprises to suppress a week of days off for people, BUT still hasn't done anything to really help doctors).

I think that less than 0.1% of French had access to this video

*It's like you have fire spreading in your house with your wife and sons inside, and the first thing you do is not call firemen but watering plants in the garden (because someday you'll need some apples)
Post edited March 27, 2020 by francksteel
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falloutttt: I'll trade a can of beans, for one pack of toilet paper.
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richlind33: I'll give you Trump, Biden, and 3 packs of toilet paper for the beans.
No deal! :(

Keep your comedian-president.
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francksteel: We had this very very interesting video on march 13 in France .
Thanks for sharing.
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morolf: There were claims that some satellite photos showed large mass graves, but iirc that has been debunked. But from everything one reads on the net, the situation in Iran does seem to be pretty terrible, the official death toll is probably too low.
Even if it is debunked it might still be true for some countries....if not now then later....and that kind of thing worries me a bit and depresses me a bit as well. :\
my amazon nail products wont arrive for a solid month

hnnnggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg i deserve to look beautiful!
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Fairfox: my amazon nail products wont arrive for a solid month

hnnnggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggggg i deserve to look beautiful!
You don't even know if you're still alive in a month, maybe you'll have died of Covid-19 by then.
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morolf: There were claims that some satellite photos showed large mass graves, but iirc that has been debunked. But from everything one reads on the net, the situation in Iran does seem to be pretty terrible, the official death toll is probably too low.
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GameRager: Even if it is debunked it might still be true for some countries....if not now then later....and that kind of thing worries me a bit and depresses me a bit as well. :\
You realise how meaningless such a statement is (and how harmful it can be in terms of scaremongering)?

Person 1: X is a thing! X happened!
Person 2: That has been debunked. X did not happen.
Person 3 chimes in: Even if it is debunked, it might still be true, if not now, then later.

With that attitude, literally anything is possible, and truth is meaningless, if it is not true now, then it could be later: Terminators among us. Lizard people controlling us, assassins dispatching world leaders with delayed action, undetectable, deathly fart gases, Fluorine in the water turning frogs gay, etc.

Now I don't want this to come off like an attack, so I'll echo a question from someone else earlier in response to the whole "Authoritative soure vs rando on the internet" discussion. Since you say that people should treat authoritative sources and randos on the internet with equal importance, and use "common sense" to figure out which is right, and since at the moment, everyone has time to apply common sense to the current situation unless they're lazy (I paraphrase you), could you outline specifically how someone without a detailed knowledge of biology and medicine (the vast majority of us) would weigh what a rando on the internet said, and what an authoritative source said, and decide who to trust more?
Post edited March 28, 2020 by babark
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babark: You realise how meaningless such a statement is (and how harmful it can be in terms of scaremongering)?
If someone can't hear such and not break out into panic why should it be on me/anyone else? Are we their guardians and/or responsible for the entire world?

The problem is many are already scared, and someone saying such on one thread of a web forum isn't likely going to make it much worse(if at all). Heck, the "good news posts" might possibly lure some into a false sense of security and cause some to let their guard down too.

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babark: With that attitude, literally anything is possible, and truth is meaningless, if it is not true now, then it could be later: Terminators among us. Lizard people controlling us, assassins dispatching world leaders with delayed action, undetectable, deathly fart gases, Fluorine in the water turning frogs gay, etc.
And if people believe such without checking/critical thinking then they're being "stupid"....again, why should we be overly responsible for adults and not let them do so more so for themselves during all this?

During such events, self reliance is often a very important skill to have, and i'm hoping if we get any positives from all this that one of them will be people being more self reliant/using their brains more.

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babark: Now I don't want this to come off like an attack, so I'll echo a question from someone else earlier in response to the whole "Authoritative soure vs rando on the internet" discussion. Since you say that people should treat authoritative sources and randos on the internet with equal importance, and use "common sense" to figure out which is right, and since at the moment, everyone has time to apply common sense to the current situation unless they're lazy (I paraphrase you), could you outline specifically how someone without a detailed knowledge of biology and medicine (the vast majority of us) would weigh what a rando on the internet said, and what an authoritative source said, and decide who to trust more?
To clarify one thing: I didn't say one should give EQUAL importance to every source.....obviously less credible or authoritative sources should be trusted less.

That said, one can/could use other information sources to check into what was said(verify with other sources), or ask those who are smarter/more knowledgeable on what they read/find & want to check.
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To all: (Article is an archived link to bypass ads and paywalls, written by Tyler Durden)
Post edited March 28, 2020 by GameRager
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GameRager: If someone can't hear such and not break out into panic why should it be on me/anyone else? Are we their guardians and/or responsible for the entire world?

The problem is many are already scared, and someone saying such on one thread of a web forum isn't likely going to make it much worse(if at all). Heck, the "good news posts" might possibly lure some into a false sense of security and cause some to let their guard down too.

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babark: With that attitude, literally anything is possible, and truth is meaningless, if it is not true now, then it could be later: Terminators among us. Lizard people controlling us, assassins dispatching world leaders with delayed action, undetectable, deathly fart gases, Fluorine in the water turning frogs gay, etc.
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GameRager: And if people believe such without checking/critical thinking then they're being "stupid"....again, why should we be overly responsible for adults and not let them do so more so for themselves during all this?

During such events, self reliance is often a very important skill to have, and i'm hoping if we get any positives from all this that one of them will be people being more self reliant/using their brains more.

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babark: Now I don't want this to come off like an attack, so I'll echo a question from someone else earlier in response to the whole "Authoritative soure vs rando on the internet" discussion. Since you say that people should treat authoritative sources and randos on the internet with equal importance, and use "common sense" to figure out which is right, and since at the moment, everyone has time to apply common sense to the current situation unless they're lazy (I paraphrase you), could you outline specifically how someone without a detailed knowledge of biology and medicine (the vast majority of us) would weigh what a rando on the internet said, and what an authoritative source said, and decide who to trust more?
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GameRager: To clarify one thing: I didn't say one should give EQUAL importance to every source.....obviously less credible or authoritative sources should be trusted less.

That said, one can/could use other information sources to check into what was said(verify with other sources), or ask those who are smarter/more knowledgeable on what they read/find & want to check.
So what you're saying is that you do not hold yourself responsible for the veracity of your own words, that is other people's responsibility?

And how would anyone verify one source by using another source? They'd have to verify that other source first.
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babark: So what you're saying is that you do not hold yourself responsible for the veracity of your own words, that is other people's responsibility?
No, I have said before that I try to be somewhat responsible & also I usually denote if something is serious/a joke/fact/opinion with my wording or footnotes so people know.....the rest, as they say, is up to those who read it.

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babark: And how would anyone verify one source by using another source? They'd have to verify that other source first.
Usually the other source would be one one knows to be trustworthy/knowledgeable on such things.

Obviously one cannot verify everything 100%...the other sources/people CAN help people weigh the information better, though, than by itself.
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BTW an offshoot question: How are you and yours(family) doing? I hope they are well enough during these trying times?

Me? I'm hunkering down with canned food, internet, games, shows/movies, and other things.
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Post edited March 28, 2020 by GameRager