supplementscene: B) 2 players have already silent dropped 2 Liberal Policies so we have 2 fascist policies down with a 100% chance of 2 drops with no information. This would be quite bad because we know 2 fascists are in play.
There are risks to not top decking too:
1) Any potential fascist in Rager & RWarehall will drop a liberal policy
2) There's a 38% (I think) chance that the first draw of a new deck will give 3 fascist policies.
For all your analysis, how can you keep getting it wrong...
We have only 1 unaccounted for Liberal policy. We have passed 4 of the 6 and ZFR announced he dropped another (not silently)
And the odds without skipping governments after the reshuffle of 3 Fs is (10/12)*(9/11)*(8/10) = 6/11 or 54.5%
While that sounds bad...if we skip governments and there is a problem, we are at 3 Fs already and we lose if Hitler is the chancellor before any card draw. Furthermore, the odds of 3 F is similar (8/10)*(7/9)*(6/8) = 7/15 = 46.7% only reduced because we granted 2 free Fascist policies.
You also seem to talk a lot about Fascists among the 4 people who have all passed Liberal policies. While it's possible, a Hitler is far more likely.
For GameRager to be a straight Fascist, he would have had to sluff the first opportunity and then pass it a second time on the 3rd L.
For me to be a straight Fascist, I would have had to pass on the opportunity on the first draw and then pass it a second time (or draw 2 Ls and be forced to pass one) on the 3rd L.
For ZFR to be a straight Fascist, he'd have to ignore the opportunity to pass a Fascist policy on the 2nd government and get stuck passing one on the 4th with the draw.
For Joe, he'd have to either get a bad draw on the 2nd or choose to pass up the opportunity and had no choice on the 4th.
There are possibilities of a Hitler/Fascist combo, but there are similar concerns whether its likely given the Fascist could take all the credit for the government fail to avoid being on the brink.
Strangely, the most likely Fascists are the ones you propose using...
Joe is the least proven; ZFR 2nd. Something I find odd...I'd think a real Liberal would notice this.
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It's a tough decision.
We win outright skipping governments if both of the following are true:
1) No President false-claimed their draws.
2) Neither GameRager nor I are Hitler (or Fascist but I think I've explained how that is not likely) who will discard the Liberal policy. I know I'm not, I can't tell you about GameRager...
But if either of these are true, we are already at 3 F, electing Hitler as Chancellor immediately loses the game and we have chaos as we don't know whether the L was sluffed earlier or just now.
vs.
With the same conditions above:
A 60% chance to win right now, no guarantee, but 2 extra Fs before we'd have to worry about Hitler.
I can't tell you which policy is better, it's very close, but with the plan proposed by you and your frequent mischaracterizations, I'm in favor of the straight play because I do not trust you.
