@Brasas - in addition to the questions about multi-faction, what's your take specifically on babark's claim right now?


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Busy evening IRL but not much happening here - going to re-read some stuff I guess.

To be fair, you also did the "Why would I vote Dess?" thing that in part kept town from actually lynching a wolf. So you can dance and have a drink or two from the still, but don't get too big a head. ;)


So... there are 250 posts (now 251) either by Dess or that mention Dess and holy shit it takes a long time to go through all that. Stupid big games with forever-long D1s. 3 or so hours. Had to make notes even, which I hate doing.

Have 1 page just for significant interactions between Dess and other (and even that excludes some stuff), but going to sit on that for now.

Couple thoughts/questions:
@Tammy: 1276 - what's your feeling on this now? (esp. "if dessimu is scum look at the people who dismissed suspicion on him for being a lurker.")

Couple very strong marks in Brasas' favor, though a few raised eyebrows as well.
@Brasas 1294 What soft-claim were you expecting from Dess, exactly? Not sure I actually want an answer, but ...that line is sticking in my craw a bit. fyi

@Stan 1299: Can you elaborate on what it was about Nacho that had you thinking "not so much" suitably townie? What's your take on Nacho now after N1 data?

@Lift , [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/oakwood_village_forum_mafia_game_42/post1231]1231, 1233: What's your analysis of your wagon analysis in hindsight? Analysis of the actual wagons? And what's your take on Stan now?

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Something that looks amusing in hindsight is the back and forth between Dess and Stan in 473, and then 475-478.

Assuming I remember to email them to myself, I might post other notes tomorrow but wanted to ask questions without biasing the answers. Think two players in particular look pretty good and come off the table completely for me for D2.

@bler: respectively: townie, just not as townie because I think he can fake it

eh

I was actually asking what the suspicion of Dess was about. Asking, but not getting any answers, so I didn't change my vote.

Actually, while currently not so much an accusation than just an observation, going back and reading how you and RWarehall played off of and supported each other's points (aside from what appears to be a small meaningless digression into compulsiveness), and your support for his pushing ("RW is a veteran player and that's just how her goes"), along with what seemed an implicit understanding that he could not possibly be scum (actually, when I'm back at my laptop, I'll have to check up on a voting history of who did and didn't vote for Dess and RW when it could've mattered)...seems interesting to ponder.

Thanks, and Ok. I'm not sure how much credit to give the adjectives being or not capitalized into compound nouns. But still when you put them side by side it does jump out at you.

Also, I think this is illustrative of the big difference between us. You never have THE map until the very end. But I think you need to have A map for anything you're doing. If you don't settle on A map, tentative as it may be, no wonder you are a tad lost.

Answering this will allow me to expand what I wanted to anyway. As more and more people post I look around and clearly this is another of those occasions where what seems super obvious to me only makes me look weird to the others. It's freaking ironic that the surer I get of something the less support I seem to be able to muster.

Alas, such is life.

First, my gameplan has not really changed at all. I want to go after Nacho, I think I'm on to something there and just waiting to be allowed to vote to lay it out. Also I would like to see discussion of the no lynches go deeper before that honestly. Trent and Yogs... are both getting a huge pass. (I think the others going to NL were Tammy and RW) Should also see anyone that left Dess wagon for another peanut wagon really... that was a no lynch vote in all but name.
Then I want to reread Lift, he pinged me early, and he pinged me later. When can I do this? Beats me, I hardly managed to take all the notes by the time daybreak came, despite speeding up when Drealmer posted the incoming warnings. And Yogs is getting himself on my radar - how rude of him :P
Lastly I won't vote any claimed role nor tammy today, no matter what (well, if someone comes out and claims scum I'll make an exception - but I think even Ix learned that lesson ;) ). Maybe scum would be so kind to all fakeclaim right now? You get me to not vote you? Ain't that nice?

What has really changed is that I feel much more relaxed D2. I'm sure at some level it's just that with near 10 players I actually feel like the game fits in my brain. So in a dark way, hurrah for so many deaths, every cloud has a silver lining yadah yadah...

But also considering the gamestate, it's like much lower responsibility weighing me. So, I have not excluded the possibility we have kind of gutted THE scum team. I was not happy with the way D1 ended, but Tammy and whatever happened to RW should have gotten us back on track so to speak. If that is the case, then even if scum is bigger than initially assumed they likely suffered a significant blow. I mean:
1 we haven't lost any PRs, apart the worrier and he basically fullfilled his role (btw... come on people, isn't it bloody obvious he was a bodyguard of sorts? read the darn flavor with eyes open please)
2 it seems the vig shots on town might have ended (kinda hope that's a bluff because 2 shots one scum is still quite good score I think)
So overall I feel like weight of numbers alone might do it. Note, I'm not saying it's in the bag, especially if the wolfs are experienced (like say, Yogs and Nacho :P) just that I particularly don't feel the same stress I did D1, especially with the clusterf... EOD. And I have a gameplan, per above, where in this scenario I have some scummy reads, and most everyone else would be town by default.

Then, the thing is, the 2nd NK is a hard fact, and with so many players I never was happy with the apparent push to consider scum would be only 4 or something (I think that was Wyrm). In the multiball scenario I could imagine something like 5/5/5. I mean, scum will kill each other. Maybe you all assume Drealmer would aim for a 50/50 chance of town winning, but I see that as town centric if there are more factions, and even in multiball, maybe such split is not that far from a decent chance of town winning depending on roles / abilities?

Basically, in this scenario considering how many dead and confirmed town there are (5 total from my POV) I turn it around and see almost everyone as default scum. Sure maybe the scum teams are smaller, but whatever (the scenarios mix then), anyway scum are bound to start killing each other, plus we are bound to start lynching some of them. I still have the scummier suspects to leisurely go after. And fundamentally, I think maybe I'm fucked and town is fucked, but it will be a ride, and maybe those PRs actually are all town, and we still have a decent shot even in multiball.

I mean, I could go on, but I guess that gives you an idea of my mindspace right now? Basically this doesn't change one thing in terms of actions I think we should be doing - lynching for flips. It kinda helps explain the fragmentation of wagon pushing D1, but that's just a bonus. And as we get more flips, it'll become clearer. Despite WIFOM and headfakes.


Now, let's have some fun with the other stuff. :)

Noted. I guess you likewise noticed the vig comment and that I want attention on the no lynch voters heh? :)

Don't worry though, I actually have others on my mind. But noted indeed.


I'm sure he's got reasons. His self-imposed MU sanctuary period is over for one... ;)

[opens dictionary]
Sloth is obvious and even appropriate... yog though... hmmm... yogurt? yoga? This might be harder than I thought...
Sure takes me back to kindergarden... ah, the memories.

It'll sort itself out either way.

[Refreshes.]

Why wouldn't you want an answer? I actually wondered that no one picked on that.

I thought he was the vig, based on the tree branch flavor and his mention of traps. If he had claimed vig I'd have a hard choice to make...

And really, I don't deserve any "town points" for holding onto Dess's wagon? Not sure what you're seeing, but I was there only for the flip, and was actually in the "Tammy voting a lurker" club. Whatever she saw, I have no freaking clue. But she was right (also about Quad) and that's that.

But none of the kills had the flavour of someone getting lost in the maze of the Paranoid Barn Owner, should that be an actual role and not just flavour.
Which brings me to ask: bler, did someone get lost in your maze and you dragged the body somewhere else to be found? Or did nothing trigger your maze? I think it would be helpful to know if one of the kills can be attributed to an already sort of claimed role.

Huh, I think I might have just cracked yogsloth. Pretty sure that thing he said wasn't a bluff at all. Doesn't prove he's town, but suddenly I think town-yogs makes sense.

If you want a hint, think about what drealmer/wyrm said about the larger version of this game. Yogs, am I on the right track there?

As mentioned, I stumbled home an an anxious, paranoid state. Got home, went into the house not the barn. Smoked up and made food and tea, fell asleep and awoke a bit more content and less anxious.

But no, my pm makes no mention of anyone visiting/watching/following me in any capacity.

Could RW have disappeared into the barn and drealmer not mentioned it at all in my PM? I really, really doubt it, both for flavor and game mechanics reasons. To the point I'm going to say no, he's pretty certainly not in the barn either.

You can certainly ask if I'd lie about that, but why would I? If that were the case I'd get credit for killing a wolf and it would bolster my role claim, and I would've bragged about it in my day-opening post much like Tammy did about Dess.

Don't suppose you'd answer my question above?

I don't know that I'd wholly agree with that, but at a surface level, sure. Interestingly I thought the most coherent argument was Tammy's way back in like #397, which she did refer to later when she did vote him, but by that point was a bit more buried in the larger noise and fatigue.

I think you have a good point that quite a few examples of things I did D1 don't look super awesome particularly in retrospect, though that gets to part of why I'm being townread and Dess was more suspect. I've been running around pushing or poking just about everyone (except Stan and Tammy). And yes, I backed off RW because I had legitimately made a mistake, and wanted to apologize for that, and also get back to a more distanced head space where I might read him better instead of the two of us just being caught up in 2-way OMGUS.

Dess seemed to be going out of his way to not push anyone or do anything of consequence. It wasn't just the low-frequency posting. Quad had fewer posts (by about 2/3) and had relatively done more.

Will do a separate response to brasas.

Yesterday and today are big days at work. It wraps up this evening. I should be able to catch up after that.

Uh.

Which thing? What version?

Whut?

I admit my Day 1 wasn't so stellar, so I'm not sure where you're going with this.

Brasas sure was working hard to save Dessimu, though.

I also like beer.

I am lying about one thing in this post.

Lots of points I'd like to jump on but will try to be briefish and stick to main ones (going in reverse order).

1) I agree you don't get super lock-town points, but I think you get more than you're giving yourself credit for in terms of timing and progression particularly. Albeit in cristi's vote analysis IIRC she proposed giving you lots of town cred if Dess flipped scum (2nd to Tammy) IIRC, and I'm a bit more middle of the road.

Still, having re-read the whole Dess-mess last night, I do think there are points you make that do look townie at least in comparison to others, including myself. Either you or, I'd say probably less so, Nacho, could be professionally busing a teammate, sure.

So I'd like to hear your Nacho case, definitely, but if it involves Nacho+Dess, I'll tell you right now it's going to be a hard sell for me.

When I'm focused I at least like to try and play the odds (thus the argument for why I was voting Dess yesterday, when I was), and right now I think I'm of the mind that going after either of you on the theory that you could be busing or could be multi-scum in some completely hypothetical setup is a low percentage play compared to alternatives on the table.

Now, if you can make a case that Nacho is the orc shaman assistant to the evil demon lord, I'm totally on board with that. The evil demon lord always has an orc shaman assistant. Always.

2) In terms of why I might not want an answer, it was possible it pertained to something you knew. There's one other line from you in another post that - in my mind - looked like a potentially similar vein. But for now I'll trust in the other case you had a particular purpose so I'll leave that one lay for now.

That said, I quite like your explanation of the trap flavor. I'd totally missed that. So I won't go into the other line for now.

3) I actually asked you about your take on the claim more in reference to what you said about doc way back in 396:

"Laura (docbear) almost a derpclear, but it likely wasn't a role slip, so pretty much got nothing "

Was a bit curious to see what you think of the claim now mostly to try and tease out your progression. Amusingly both this post and that one are a bit noncommittal, so I'm probably not going to get anywhere with that. ;) Though will note in 1319 you stated you were town-reading babark, thus not moving your vote from Dess. Would you say you're more or less certain of that now?

4) Jeesh, you are the paranoid one. yogs, pass this man some weed. Or did you already?

5) I'm happy with voting Lift both as a gut read and a play read. Which presumably surprises absolutely no one. While I'd at least consider 4-5 players for D2, he's my first choice by far at the moment.

6) I'm amused you criticized me for being all over the map and then followed with a gamestate analysis that was fairly unfocused (it's 5/5/5 and everyone alive is scum!...or it's something else entirely!). That's not shade since I invited you to share, it's just appreciation of the little ironies in life.

As noted, way back in my summary post about GoG players, I tend to run around crashing into things, but it's usually in the service of trying to figure out what is going on. There is ...some method to the madness.

And particularly in this game where there are much better analysts than me (certainly Tammy/Nacho/cristi, probably you) I feel more freed to just help keep inertia up.

What?!? Omg#LynchAllLiarsvoteyoglsooth!

That said, you know you've made it all but impossible to respond to anything in that post, right? But assuming you're serious about Brasas, I looked at Brasas' progression last night, so yeah, I think I see a few of the points you're likely to make, and a few things pinged me, sure.

But still, don't suppose you want to like, lay it out for the class?

Here, I'll even give you the post numbers I wrote down so you don't have to go back from scratch if you don't want to:

1092 criticizes Stan for "lurker focus in target-rich environment" though I'm not entirely clear on what his alternative was (I didn't full-read him, just Dess-related posts)
1211 criticizes your dess vote, says something about Tammy that I didn't follow, and makes the bizarro point that "dess always lurks" - which cristi eyebrowed in 1230)
1239 reacts negatively to Dess' defense, seeks cristi's opinion on the desswagon (could be suspicious if he was going to piggyback her read). But then IIRC proposes we need to trim the wagons to 2-3, those being either babs/dess or babs/dess/(RW?)

Beyond that he continues to hem and haw a bit, but does make at least some push towards an actual lynch. Realistically I guess I don't see that as different from what me/trent/flipflopsloth and even tammy/wyrm were doing. Compare that to RW who came on the wagon with a "I think we've found scum and if he flips scum blame Wyrm!" argument and then bailed when trent's no lynch vote gave him cover.

And yeah, if anyone was working against that wagon, it was probably either Wyrm (overall), RW (early stage, by hopping back on babs when Dess started to move a bit), or arguably Lift (swapped to babs when Dess looked like a real thing).

IDK, I think he <could> have bused based on skill, but if he did I think it actually looks pretty natural in whole at least in that progression.

Anyway, I just meant to post the post numbers, but apparently I just rambled on through my whole argument. By all means, do feel free to highlight things I've missed or where you think I'm wrong, but I spent 3 gd hours reading that stuff last night.

So if you're going to whinge about a lousy D1 performance, here it's D2 and the field is much smaller, so...you know. Start fresh!

EBWOP - noticed I didn't finish an important thought.

"(could be suspicious if he was going to piggyback her read)"

Forgot to note that that's the same post where he does vote Dess, so whatever he was trying to suss/cajole out of cristi, he definitely wasn't just piggybacking since he voted before giving her a chance to respond.

So, uh...what's the trigger to move things to mid-day so we can vote and move this along? Do we pray to the spirit of Katahdin? Sacrifice a goat?

Pretty sure we've been awake for 2 days and everyone has at least checked in.




Or we can just get baked and start a drum circle. Who's in?