Brasas: ... I won't speculate a lot on future, just want to comment what I left quoted from the bottom. I already mentioned little will change, PiS is rather a conservative party, and economically I expect very little will actually change other than posturing. As for deeper political changes, as mentioned they don't have enough power for constitutional changes and rearranging power, despite also holding the presidency.
The end of liberal attitudes now... well I expect conservative attitudes will be empowered, but the country was already divided in those regards - mainly a generational thing I think, because consider '89 was less than 30 years ago so another 30 years will make a huge difference. Anyway obviously some rather extremist voices will feel encouraged, but the majority of PiS voters are just traditional catholics of some sort - so abortion and homosexuality will be the hot button topics.
As to the Hungarian path, that requires expanding on. In some ways the Hungarian nationalist path will be pursued, and the fact that former PO PM Tusk is in the EU leadership is going to facilitate anti-EU rhetoric to no end, as well some distancing from German positions is likely to continue. Notice I said continue, because despite the PO having had a conciliatory and friendly approach to Polish-German relations they were always the minority in that regard. Distrust of Germany runs very deep in Poland, despite the economic affluence having camouflaged that.
So in those aspects you could say PiS will follow Orban, but really it isn't following, it's convergence and Orban deserves zero credit for it. Anti-EU, anti immigration, nationalist voices are everywhere in Europe and gaining strength, from France to Finland and the UK to Greece. As for the Hungarian positions of friendliness to Russia, which might have been far from your mind, if anything PiS will consciously distance themselves from Orban in those regards.
Finally... Kaczynski. Well, I am curious about foreign press treatment because calling him a mastermind and implying the polish population has been fooled somehow or is blinded is... odd certainly, and bordering on misrepresentation. The kind of elitism that only helps reinforce the populist streak of PiS voter appeal. Now I don't like the guy, but he's at least as much a clown as a mastermind. A kind of true believer of sorts which therefore is more analogous to Lenin than to Stalin - and this is a point that I'd make forcefully to actual Poles so they keep a close eye on whoever is coming behind Kaczynski, because there the real danger lies.
I'll leave it there but happy to talk more if you want further elaboration.
Thank you for the long answer to which I could not reply until now. That is all very interesting. I guess one problem is that indeed people here do not know enough about the different political groups in Poland and do not know what PiS is really standing for.
I have nothing against a different economic programm. If they want to spend more money on social programms or less or nothing changes at all - I do not really mind. Also the different stance on climate politics and the favoring of coal power - why not. Everyone will soon see that the climate is changing and the resources are limited and then the pressure to act will rise. Europe is actually not a stronghold and cannot decouple itselft from the world. Everyone will learn that soon enough.
What I'm more concerned with is the climate in the society in poland. There is a certain risk that the laws will be changed in a certain way or the justice could be influenced as well as the media or just a general climate that discriminate or disadvantage minorities or more liberal minds (in the way of not being nationalistic). Basically the way of Hungary.
As an example take CDP and GOG. They certainly cannot do what they do with Polish people alone. In order to stay attractive for foreign programmers and artists they need to have a lively, open Warsaw.
If this is not existing anymore, maybe talented foreign people won't come and talented young Polish people might want to go to other places. I know that if I would live in Hungary I would probably feel a bit like living in a prison. In the end Nationalism and Socialism are probably very close in how they make you feel living under them.
But it's good to hear that actually part of these fears are unfounded so far and PiS is just a bit right of center but still more center than right, right?
