One, that requires the vig revealing something scum would want to know even more than town. We can both theorycraft, but it's not a question he should answer.

Two, at least from my vantage point atm he has the best claim to township of anyone in the field.

Except me, of course.


Okay, here's the issue with me and Lift. I think town!Lift tends to look for simple explanations, whereas town!bler tends to prefer complicated, perhaps sometimes overwrought theories.

It's (over-simplifying) one reason we probably look at the same data and draw opposite conclusions. But it's also why this version of Lift stopped pinging me early on. He's been very steady, chasing LHF here and there, but in a manner that feels internally consistent. I don't have him hard-town enough to say I wouldn't lynch him, but he's not a very appealing lynch to me.

trent D3, by contrast, coming out of the gate felt more out of character. trent's jump to Lift in particular felt like a pretty sudden shift, and trying to cash in a bit on cristi's towncred:

"I agree with cristi and I think Lift is scum. His tunneling of Hyper is what I see a scum Lift doing, and when no one else would bite he stops and never even pushes yogs when he replaces Hyper. If Lift really felt Hyper was scum then he would have been pushing yogs just as hard as he did Hyper." (1009)

Compare that to his much earlier vote on ZFR:

"Vote ZFR

As of this moment the vibe I’m getting is ZFR is trying too hard to appear as town and over explaining his posts. Nothing in particular that he’s said or done, just what gut feeling I’m getting.

Anyone else getting that vibe from ZFR or do y’all think I’m off the mark?" #156

One or two people noted at the time it was odd to be crowd-sourcing feedback on his own vote (HSL?). In conjunction with his shift off ZFR's wagon later when it built to L-2 and firm declaration that ZFR was def. town, if you squint a certain way, it looks like a buddy coaching a teammate.

And later explanation:

"I also was not saying ZFR’s behavior has not been scummy, it has been on several occasions. I don’t know if it’s from his inexperience, nerves, or just his play style. What I was saying is if he flips town his lynch is the easiest one to blame voting him on him being a newbie and making mistakes because of it and that got him lynched. I felt from his posts he was more a frustrated townie whose inexperience was showing and that his wagon was gaining momentum when it shouldn’t have been. If people were truly concerned with ZFR looking like scum for the 4 posts I pointed out then they should have voted him when when I pointed it out not later on when another wagon was trying to gain momentum. ZFR’s wagon feels off." (#515)

So scummy behavior, but wagon is suspicious because people should have voted ZFR when Trent did for the same reasons.

And then his later explanation:

"I also think y'all are getting bent out of shape on this issue over semantics. When say I believe someone is town, I believe they are town. Not leaning town, not probably town, but town. By the end of the day yesterday I had two people I felt were town, Vitek and ZFR. I felt SirPrimalform was probably town, but I was not going to chance lynching a possible power role for us. I had several other people leaning town, some leaning scum, while others I had as in the middle. So when it came down to it if there had been a viable wagon on someone else other than Vitek, ZFR, or SirPrimalform I would have probably joined it. My preferred lynch yesterday was cristigale and it still is today. " #732

ZFR was definitely town. Fair enough, maybe.

Anyway, back to the original point, his attacks on cristi seem relatively measured.

"Vote cristigale

Very interesting role claim, but I’m not sure I buy it. You were concerned at the end of Day 1 about claiming and once you do claim it’s with a role that does nothing unless the Town Cop dies (if there even is a cop in the game). At the end of Day 1 that made you expendable as town and you should have taken the lynch for us, and since you made sure to hint at a power role to stop your lynch and then reveal one the is hard to swallow I think you’re lying." #870

So the hard push at Lift felt out of pace to me. IDK.


This post isn't really done, but I need to go to work. Interested to hear from bookwyrm and damnation. And ele's return would be nice.

I agree, though I feel like I need to re-analyse this on the basis of town!Joe and scum!Joe since they're intertwined.

Yeah, more posts from Damnation

Further prods have been issued.

Unfortunately, further substitutions are both not possible and would be unwelcome and detrimental to the game.

Thanks for the bump!

That line was meant to say more "posts from Damnation and ele would certainly be helpful."

Just got to this. The rest of the replies I'm compiling while reading up (haven't forgotten you Bler!) can wait a moment.

...
...

I'm not sure which part is messier. That you are tossing out "The mod gave a public hint to Night Actions using flavor in the daybreak post" as if it might be believable, or that you're saying we could count 6 separate bullet holes in someone's head. The mod didn't give any hints in the previous daybreak post, and even two bullets should be enough to reduce someone's head to an indistinguishable mess.

Actually, I do know what is messier. Lots of people have posted and Joe isn't dead yet. You people are buying this crap? Really??

Yeah, I found this very weird and was going to ask if this normally happens, since I thought flavour is just flavour. But since none of the more experienced players commented...

Just shake your head, take note of who jumped off the wagon, and have patience.

Joe is always today's lynch. Always.

No Townie is going to be this willingly absurd all the way to deadline.

Joe, wtf are you doing with this quote-but-don't-post stuff

I fixed it for you.

Reading into the flavour that much seems like a real stretch. The first post seems like an attempt to play into my new found suspicion of trent (either bussing a buddy or going for a mislynch). I'm guessing paranoia about the D3 flavour caused Joe to backpedal so quickly.

So, here's the notes I compiled before Joe came and logic-bombed everyone except me and Yog. May as well get this out there.
==========

Dang it. I knew there was another SPF note that I was forgetting.

If SPF is town, then why did he survive his L-1 wagon on D1? Was it just the role claim? Presumably all scum weren't on it; were they afraid to hammer? Need to review his wagon.

Also, forgot to add the Rabbit suspicion to Lift's slot. Rabbit had a spat of blatant role fishing, and a lot of sheeping during D1.

==========

*squint* Hm. Add one, carry the three...

Well crap. You're right. It seemed to work in my head, but that side of the equation doesn't actually follow unless SPF was actively town reading the scum team.


*shrug* Could be. I'll take a look at Trent's context in the timeline you provided. Initial scan from 317 to 348 shows ZFR defending himself, with Trent indicating in 348 that he is coming to believe ZFR. As I recall, several of the questions directed at him seemed downright facetious to me.

Please make your "Trent is scum" case again? Who do you see as his scum teammates?

I'll try to make some time to look back over your Day 3 posts, to see what you've already said.

I'm guessing that means "Are they W/W?"
Assume scum!Book and scum!Trent. In the context of everything, who do you see as our 3rd?

Lift was first on the wagon. I went ahead and joined a wagon on someone I think is scum after Yog expressed interest, and ZFR jumped on dropped pretty fast after me.

You mentioned Joe's voting in Post 1058(?). I was still catching up at the time; my Post 1099 was me taking a short break to rib Yogsloth about his Post 918.

I noticed Joe's lack of voting when I was reviewing the EOD 2 wagons, trying to figure out why I was only seeing 10 votes when there were 11 active players (Vitek dead, ZFR brigged). I would have brought it up even if it hadn't been mentioned yet.

It was one of my problem points while reading your posts. Specific lines in response to your number (3) below.

You mean Joe was also placing focus on flavor to hunt for cylons? Perish the thought!

Anyway, it wasn't Damnation last time dipping into flavor (briefly in 891, and more in depth in response to an Adalia flavor speculation).

In any event, I find flavor speculation to try and figure out game mechanics, and especially alignment in some fashion, to be a big dumpster fire. At that point, we're trying to out guess the mod to solve the game.

I wrote what I meant to write. Drink up!

Did you leave some breadcrumb or something in the thread about this suspicion of yours? If so, can you link it?

There isn't a great way to directly quote the relevant pieces, so I'll just stick them in ASCII quotes with post numbers.

Adalia, Post 627: "and cristi's crusade against him based on his 'pylon' seems misguided at best and wilful misrepresentation at worst. My read agree's with Vitek's, she has used it as an excuse to not do anything else for Day 1, which doesn't match with my meta read of cristi's play. To me she is firm scum."

Adalia, Post 662: "Lift's point about cristi claiming. I read it the same way. Time to prepare a claim screams of fake claim to me. I can see how you could interpret it the other way and just assume she didn't want to claim unless she absolutely had to, but it felt far more like scum stalling when I read it through."

Bler, 811: "Well, that's a lovely rational for voting generally. It does nothing to explain your specific vote. Similar to your post about JoeS, this seems to be an assertion of a viewpoint with nothing seemingly holding up said viewpoint. "

Bler, 812: "Or in adalia's case, just not bothering to explain at all, apparently."


Looking back with current knowledge, HSL 'cleared' the slot for me when he didn't try to finish Cristi. HSL's vote coming down on ZFR instead of Cristi doesn't say anything about ZFR's alignment.

Considering that Cristi pretty much rolled to lynch the whole Day without a serious counter wagon, is there any reason to assume all scum didn't help it move?

Looking back, it seems ZFR was on my wagon until he was finally brigged. Do you think scum!ZFR helped brig himself? Possible, but it seems kind of dubious to me.

I'm aware of your distaste for being scum, and I know there are several other reasons for an energy drain. You're right; I retract the energy level mess.

:O
I'm Bookwyrm951!! You couldn't tell us apart!? BETRAYAL!

Rah Rah Rah!

Having tried the swap, I'm somewhat in agreement. It was one of those interesting experiments (and thank you for the opportunity, Poppy), but I don't think I'd try it again.
From this end, I had some issues in trying to figure out how to catch up and compile the data from a few different sources (game thread, adalia's notes from the QT, and figuring out how/where the admin thread issue fit into everything (doubly relevant, since I inherited Adalia's warning)). Also, there were things like the Day 2 questions sort-of-but-not-really addressed to me that Adalia couldn't quite answer; I could now that I'm back, but that's like week old news and does anyone still care?

Anyway. I'd say that any read you had on my slot from my play should have remained, whatever it was, especially since I was coming back. I'm not saying my double-replacement should have you should be reading me any particular way.


Scum!ZFR doesn't implicate HSloth; there is no correlation in this direction.

Scum!HSloth implicates scum!ZFR; scum!HSloth has no reason to avoid a town!ZFR lynch wagon even if HSL's vote wouldn't have been the hammer (and perhaps doubly so if he can get on the wagon without being the hammer). That close to deadline, HSL would have been able to come up with even a flimsy excuse and expect it to hold up when combined with "we gotta lynch if we're going to!" pressure.

I can't seem to help myself. Gotta serve some wine somehow.

Yes. A lot of this was copied directly from my notes while rereading. The names right after that question (SPF, Joe, Ele) are the answer.

I noted it because it was one of the 'wagon' pushes that we had.