(no votes in this post)
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My memory might sometimes be bad, but I can at least remember some things with some amount of clarity.....one of which being that during that game my push for claims partly led to us lynching scum!Trent.

(iirc we had a sizeable wagon on trent due in part to the push for wagons/claims, and he more or less gave up and outed himself.....leading us to lynch him. If you somehow feel i'm wrong, then link the post/posts to prove such)

With claims we have info to work with to find scum, so I personally feel it does help town in some ways.....so we can agree to disagree.

The prior thing was about the odds of a player getting the same faction across multiple games....and I already admitted to being mistaken on that.

This, however, is concerning the odds of us getting PR claims in a row in the same game, so I feel it's different.
(of course, I welcome input on odds/etc regarding the above from all players, in case I am again mistaken)

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All the above aside, as I said before, this is getting tiresome: ever since I made a few observations (which I probably should've kept till after said games, I admit) on how you played the game several games back, you've seemed to have taken it personally and held a chip on your shoulder against me in these games.

From subtle to not so subtle jabs, to hardly ever answering my questions(the answers of which I require to play the game and lean players/find scum)......all of this is only serving to help scum, and (imo) is anti-town play.

So I have to ask: do you care about holding onto this little "thing" between us so much that you're willing to play in an anti-town manner and possibly cause the game to be thrown because of it? Or are you willing to put it aside for the sake of team and game so we can try to win this?

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To all: Will reply to more when I get back from errands IRL.

Let's say for the sake of argument that it's pretty low odds. So what does that prove? Why would it indicate they're lying?

Case 1: You toss a 100 sided dice that has 99 black sides and one white. It lands behind the couch so you don't see it. Your wife looks at it and says "cool. It landed on its white side." picks it up and hands it to you.

Case 2: You bet a a notorious cheater that whoever wins a coin toss pays for the drinks at the bar. The coin falls behind a counter so you don't see it. The guy says "you lose" and picks it up.

Question: which is more likely to be a liar? By your logic it's the wife, since the probability of her event happening is only 1/100 so she has to lie.

"Odds" don't matter (and in a closed setup are impossible to calculate). The credibility of the people matters. Saying "odds are low that 2 people claim PRs, therefore one must be lying" is just stupid.

dedo said it best:
I'm not sure what you want me to do. You asked to be taken like any other player, and this is me answering you like I'd answer any other player. If Lift/dedo/Bookwyrm started forcing early claims, asked to be investigated by cop or started messing with odds, the above is exactly what they'd have heard from me.

I'm still considering my stance on Joe. What Lift wrote above about the convenience of the claim after the no-NK is a somewhat concerning. To be honest Joe's participation so far has been mostly lackluster (sorry, luv) and he doesn't seem to be his usual perky self. I don't know if that is because he's been away from the game for a while or there is something else more sinister going on.

From my previous list of suspects Micro has effectively fallen out and I like what Cadaver's been writing so far so that pushes him further down the line in terms of preference. If Micro is clear ZFR likely is, as well.

That leaves me with Catte and Joe. Joe's claim may be sensible but scum claims always are designed to fit the current narrative so unless that's been corroborated somehow I wouldn't rely on it solely. I won't push for his lynch but I may join it still if that's what it takes to avoid NL.

GH's continued insistency on offering himself as a sacrificial lamb is getting old. I'm starting to second-guess myself and think there is a chance he's lucky scum who dodged a bullet and is milking it a bit too much now.

If I have to choose between GH and Joe, on paper GH is the better option to vote out first.

Lift is, as usual, mostly speaking up my own thoughts which makes me feel good about him in general, which in turn almost certainly means he's scum. He probably is, too, sigh...

I think I'll


vote Catte


for the sake of having an actual vote but I'd be fine with resolving the D1 wagon on GH as well.


If I take everything that's been said and done at face value and my gut feelings are correct there is exactly one Town between these 4 people: Catte, Flub, Wyrm and Lift.


The dice be like...

by the way, @Lift: did you mean to finish this sen

First off, thanks for the civil and in depth reply to my question...now onto your post:
(skipped some stuff as I don't want to make this too long, and also a bit tired atm and about to go to beed soon)

I actually have tried(over the past few games) to make it a point to usually suspect all un-confirmed(as town or scum) players more or less equally....albeit i've started to focus on keeping a bit more of an eye on lurkers now due to past experiences(like last game, when lurkers flew under my radar) and other factors.

Yeah, I didn't check the signup thread/etc to confirm which player ZFR brought into the game. Live and learn(or in my case, try to.....if I can remember to, that is), eh?

Iirc that was me having a dumb little idea by thinking scum might possibly coach other newbie scum in the game(even with day chat), and then having the "brilliant idea" to muse my idea in the game to see what others might say about my idea.

Yeah, the merchant stuff is all just roleplay.....added to (hopefully) make the game a bit more interesting for others.

Wait, can undead even do that? o.0 ;)

Good point...gonna focus on other things for a bit in the search for scums.

Yeah, I somehow forgot that possibility when writing that out. Thanks for reminding me(if I ever forget again, feel free to charge me for the time/effort to remind me again).

On the 'lynch me' stuff: I am trying to move a bit away from my self-centered desire to stay in the game just to keep playing, and show I am willing to make a sacrifice for the good of the team. As with many other things in these games, I tend to repeat myself and/or go over the top with it.

On the 'investigate me' stuff: that is some of the remnants of 'want to stay in the game as I like playing' me. I half seriously offered that as a suggestion, so that if I somehow didn't/don't get lynched I might be less of a distraction/unknown.

Question: what was the rest of this supposed to say?

Such likelihoods/odds sometimes (in part) help me to decide how to gauge events(like two PR claims in a row) and also how I should lean said players involved. That's part of why I sometimes ask about odds/etc of various things in these games.

Sorry about that before....it's just sometimes it seems like you only reply to certain bits of my replies to say how wrong/dumb those bits are.....and hardly ever seem to say anything positive about what I post and/or point out/share your thoughts on things you might agree with in my posts.
(stuff like Cadaver did several posts back in Post 504 is what I mean...I don't remember seeing much of that from you in these games)

Anyways, gonna hit the sack soon, but before that just want to say: thanks for replying a bit more to my points/etc

Nope. I'm not gonig to reread all posts and comment on every single one. Not for you, not for anyone else.

I do ISOs and comment only on stuff that caught my attention.

What I wrote in the last paragraph. I started to write that to you, then I decided to write it more generally to everyone, since Micro even asked for it. I just forgot to delete what I had started to write to you: trying to direct the Cop is almost always bad for Town.

And yes, I can believe that you go a bit over the top when trying something new. That's totally on-brand for you. However, that doesn't mean that you are Town. You might as well overdo it as scum with a 'showing Townnieness' strategy. So, for now I'll keep you on my suspect list.

@dedo: can you elaborate a bit more, why you prefer Catte to both GH and Joe?

Catte is the common denominator between my original list of suspects and the very last one one where I said I'm taking everything claimed so far as true and my reads on the newer players as correct. Catte has been coasting along nicely so far and right now his claim is the least believable one out of the three as he hasn't made one. The other two have at least bound themselves with theirs if that makes sense.

I don't understand, dedoporno.

Catte has NOT made a claim and his NOT claim is least believable of the two claims and one NOT claim, correct??

First,

Unvote Bookwyrm

Grumpy late night vote is not real vote.

The bit that seems weird to me is that your theory is dependent on both Flub and Joe being scum but you're fixating on Joe. We don't know how many town PRs there are in the game so we can't really bring odds into it at this stage.

That's kind of a weird thing to say. I could see someone saying that if they were answering a question directed primarily at me, but that was a question directed at everyone in the game. Why didn't you say "Not answering for catte, Leoric, flubbucket, ZFR, dogmaus, Bookwyrm627, dedoporno, Lifthrasil, JoeSapphire, Cadaver747 (they should answer for themselves!)"?

Hmm, I only see a claim of commuter. The mention of shots is to do with how many uses of his power he has (the implication being it is finite but he doesn't want to reveal the exact number).

Oh, I see you address this in your next post. Well I'm leaving this here anyway.

When the big pizza pie hits the moon like an eye, that's amore
When you've had to much wine, that's amore

Bells.

________

General opinion: It's a bad idea to try and direct PRs at this stage in the game. It's also unhelpful and LAMIST to volunteer to be investigated or lynched.

I can't work out whether GH's LAMIST is above his normal level or not.

I too was wondering that as you spent a while talking about GH and Joe and then voted for me with little in the way of explanation.

So you're saying a lack of claim on D2 is suspicious? More suspicious than someone who claims vanilla unprompted or the convenient (but at least relatively believable) claim of commuter?

I'm not sure what your angle is here. Are you trying to bait me into claiming? Two claims today not enough for you?

Was probably going to vote for GH, but this is kind of weird. I feel justified in saying

Vote Dedo

There might be an element of OMGUS here, but I think Dedo's reasoning is pretty damn strange.

Is it that difficult to understand what dedo's saying?

He had three suspects; two of them have claimed and he's swayed by the claims. No?

Don't really have any particular reason to defend him though.

vote dedoporno