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General discussionGOG Mafia #56 - The Witches of Salem(770 posts)(770 posts)
(770 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted November 20, 2018
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bler144: 1. Well, if we were lucky they would have killed neutral instead of VT. If we were extraordinarily lucky they would have offed themselves.

This is weird statement you make.

2. Well, in retrospect it seems pretty clear that he was a bit peeved given his flip combined with his response to HSL. I didn't expect him to flip town given ...well, most of D2, but in fairness to him, if I were town and people were lining up to not just vote me but tell me I was anti-town, I probably wouldn't feel super gracious either.

3. What makes that a good question?
1. I would call them killing neutral fantastically lucky and killing themselves impossibly lucky. But the fact we're 4 town down and haven't lost any power roles? That's either extraordinarily lucky or it might mean we're underpowered.
2. After the refusal to claim I was sure we were right, but I guess that was just frustration. I'd say it was only late in the day that people were lining up to lynch him, seemingly mostly because of his hard and continuous pushing for a double lynch. I thought he was scummy earlier in D2 as well but for most of the day everyone else seemed pretty unconvinced.

That's got me thinking. Do you reckon scum were more likely to be on the wagon (I'm thinking around the middle, once they saw it as viable) or off the wagon (because once it looked inevitable there was no reason to dirty their hands)? I'm looking at Flub, P1na and Ix.

3. Well it did what it was meant to, kick off discussion on a day with a really slow start. :P
Posted November 20, 2018
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muddysneakers: Make of it what you will. Thru EOD D2 voting not counting self votes unless I missed something.


Agent-voted for 4 town
Ixam-voted for 2 town
Muddy-voted for 2 town, 2 unknown, +1 RVS
Flubb-voted for 1 town, 1 unknown
P1na-voted for 2 town, + 1 town RVS
SPF-voted for 3 town, 1 unknown, + 1 RVS
Bler-voted for 3 town, +1 unknown sorta RVS
Cristi-voted for 1 town, +3 unknown, +1 RVS

I think I may have convinced myself cristi is town. And if you make two assumptions 1. not all mafia were on Joe EOD D1 and 2. I am town then that leaves SPF as the last player who didn't vote Joe. All of which I understand could be poor reasoning. But its where I'm leaning for toDay. Will probably vote SPF tomorrow assuming the rest of the players don't think this is completely ludicrous.
Hmm. I just applied this logic to EoD2 so it's not completely ludicrous. To be honest, I never really saw Joe as particularly scummy and I was kind of surprised when he was lynched. It could be because he's an old (and IRL) friend, but for the short time Joe was in the game I just saw "Joe being Joe". I'm curious why you're focusing on Joe's wagon by the way? As all three of us who were off Joe's wagon were on ZFRs and both flipped town. If Joe had been scum then I'd understand the focus.
Posted November 20, 2018
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Ixamyakxim: Ah so this is how it's going to play out huh? Vote hopping to get a double lynch? Don't know how I feel about that. I hope my read wasn't off on ZFR because I don't know if I like that play at all - *feels* far scummier. But I'm still not voting for you.
Hmm, upon rereading the EoD2 this jumps out. That final sentence "But I'm still not voting for you" seems strange. If you're scum then you know ZFR to be town at that point. This post weirdly acknowledges good reasons for voting for ZFR and then vocally abstains. Didn't want to get your hands dirty?
Posted November 20, 2018
It feels like not everyone is here yet... Hmm.

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agentcarr16: Lifthrasil, can we get an end-of-day vote count for Day 2?
Hey, uh... it's great that you turned up for the beginning of the day and all, but that wasn't exactly a constructive post. Hopefully you're going to come back and make more. :P

Can you tell I'm at work with nothing to do?
Posted November 20, 2018
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P1na: .............

And so, I won't vote for flub right away this time.

.............
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flubbucket: I would.

The guy's a dick.
Yeah, but a flubby one.
Posted November 20, 2018
Stop talking about flubby dicks!
Posted November 20, 2018
Okay I hope this isn't a bad time... I was breadcrumbing a power role. And trying to protect ZFR.

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cristigale: @Ixam - you baffle me. Could you explain why you thought ZFR was bread crumbing a PR? And why you drew attention to it in #296?
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Ixamyakxim: Ah so this is how it's going to play out huh? Vote hopping to get a double lynch? Don't know how I feel about that. I hope my read wasn't off on ZFR because I don't know if I like that play at all - *feels* far scummier. But I'm still not voting for you.
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SirPrimalform: Hmm, upon rereading the EoD2 this jumps out. That final sentence "But I'm still not voting for you" seems strange. If you're scum then you know ZFR to be town at that point. This post weirdly acknowledges good reasons for voting for ZFR and then vocally abstains. Didn't want to get your hands dirty?
I... didn't want to get my hands dirty. I had copped Cristi and then ZFR as same. I really DIDN'T think I had gotten so lucky as to get two scum or BOTH Neutrals because that's just dumb. But when he did this I thought my "read" maybe was scummy. It wasn't - they're both obviously town. I begged you not to lynch him but at least cristi is legit at this point.

Muddy is NOT Same. But then I feel like muddy just basically just soft claimed neutral (twice says something to the effect of "if you lynch me today and I'm neutral, that's bad") and is right. If a three scum team we're screwed. I don't like it, I normally would policy lynch neutral (and I guess muddy *could* still be scum) but I don't know if we can risk it.

This was just a pop in before work. Mull it over. Hope I didn't screw up.
Posted November 20, 2018
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Ixamyakxim: Okay I hope this isn't a bad time... I was breadcrumbing a power role. And trying to protect ZFR.

I... didn't want to get my hands dirty. I had copped Cristi and then ZFR as same. I really DIDN'T think I had gotten so lucky as to get two scum or BOTH Neutrals because that's just dumb. But when he did this I thought my "read" maybe was scummy. It wasn't - they're both obviously town. I begged you not to lynch him but at least cristi is legit at this point.

Muddy is NOT Same. But then I feel like muddy just basically just soft claimed neutral (twice says something to the effect of "if you lynch me today and I'm neutral, that's bad") and is right. If a three scum team we're screwed. I don't like it, I normally would policy lynch neutral (and I guess muddy *could* still be scum) but I don't know if we can risk it.

This was just a pop in before work. Mull it over. Hope I didn't screw up.
Argh, that's a lot to process.

Ok:

town!Ix = town!cristi because town!ZFR

I've already been town reading cristi so I don't see that as hard to believe. Having said that, if you were scum then you'd naturally know cristi's alignment but I guess you'd risk being CC'd.
Posted November 20, 2018
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flubbucket: Your LAMIST is rather potent.

Vote: SirPrimalform
Heh.

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muddysneakers: I believe this was the final vote count from D2.
<snip>
Thanks. I suppose I could have worked it out for myself, but I wanted something stamped with the mod-stamp of approval.

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Lifthrasil: Sure. Sorry.

Delayed End-of-Day vote count for Day 2:

Ixam 2 - flubb 301, ZFR 421
ZFR 6 - bler 380, agent 416, HSL 419, cristi 435, SirP 442, muddy 463
HSL 2 - Ixam 347, P1na 413
Thanks!

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cristigale: @agent - any opening thoughts for the day?
I see Ixamyakxim just claimed. That provokes a lot of thoughts.

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SirPrimalform: Hey, uh... it's great that you turned up for the beginning of the day and all, but that wasn't exactly a constructive post. Hopefully you're going to come back and make more. :P
Everyone wants to hear what I have to say! I feel so special... :)

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Ixamyakxim: Okay I hope this isn't a bad time... I was breadcrumbing a power role. And trying to protect ZFR.
...and there's the claim. OK, that'll take a separate post to examine.
Posted November 20, 2018
Passing through:

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P1na: snip
Can you link the post(s) or #s you're responding to, here? HSL may know what you're talking about, but I assume I'm not the only living player who could use a little more orientation as to what you're saying here and why.

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SirPrimalform: 1. I would call them killing neutral fantastically lucky and killing themselves impossibly lucky. But the fact we're 4 town down and haven't lost any power roles? That's either extraordinarily lucky or it might mean we're underpowered.
There's a flaw in your premise, in that maf only NKed two. The other two we lynched, and might not have if they claimed PR. Right? 2/2 is far less notable than 4/4 selecting from a population in the range of 7-9. Neutral would have an advantage in being able to just go with the flow, wherever it leads as long as it's away from themselves.

I do think the choice of NK is interesting more for what it's not, than for what it is. I don't know exactly what to do with that observation, though.

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Ixamyakxim: ...
This was just a pop in before work. Mull it over. Hope I didn't screw up.
Well. That's...something.

Popping in before work early on D3 under no voting pressure and with a limited result is probably not when I would have claimed town investigator, myself, but it is what it is for now. And on the bright side, we have time to work through it instead of a claim/scramble late in P2, I suppose.

The course of action would seem to be to see what mud has to say in response.


vote muddysneakers

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SirPrimalform: Having said that, if you were scum then you'd naturally know cristi's alignment but I guess you'd risk being CC'd.
Are you assuming no neutrals? Calling cristi town if she was neutral I would guess she'd def. reveal (and probably win in doing so), even if I agree she certainly looks townier than anyone else.
Posted November 20, 2018
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Ixamyakxim: Vote muddysneakers

You sort of scare me with how you've been flying under the radar. And I've had a huge blind spot for you because every unbolded vote (unbolded hammer, nice!) or weird No Lynch or strange "Gosh golly I'm just new and confused" is starting to maybe make me think it's an act.
First vote of the day, consistent with his claim.

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Ixamyakxim: I hadn't considered the 3 scum game. I still am almost a bit worried that maybe this line was a "scum" (in the nonneutral sense) slip:

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muddysneakers: How do you square me flipping neutral, mafia getting a NK and possibly being at 3v3 tomorrow?
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Ixamyakxim: but I think for now

Unvote muddy

Because damnit you're right.
Gets off 15 posts later. Now convinced that muddysneakers is Neutral?

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Ixamyakxim: Okay I hope this isn't a bad time... I was breadcrumbing a power role. And trying to protect ZFR.

I... didn't want to get my hands dirty. I had copped Cristi and then ZFR as same. I really DIDN'T think I had gotten so lucky as to get two scum or BOTH Neutrals because that's just dumb. But when he did this I thought my "read" maybe was scummy. It wasn't - they're both obviously town. I begged you not to lynch him but at least cristi is legit at this point.

Muddy is NOT Same. But then I feel like muddy just basically just soft claimed neutral (twice says something to the effect of "if you lynch me today and I'm neutral, that's bad") and is right. If a three scum team we're screwed. I don't like it, I normally would policy lynch neutral (and I guess muddy *could* still be scum) but I don't know if we can risk it.

This was just a pop in before work. Mull it over. Hope I didn't screw up.
There's the full claim.

So this confirms cristigale as Town and muddysneakers as not Town (possibly Neutral, possibly Scum).

Doesn't it seem like the best strategy for scum!muddysneakers to claim Neutral? He's now effectively un-lynchable even while admitting that he's not Town. I'm not sure that we can "trust" his soft-claim of Neutrality.

But assuming that he is legitimately Neutral, there are two or three Scum in flubbucket, P1na, SirPrimalform, and bler144 (LAMIST!!!). That's... pretty good odds.

@Ixamyakxim - Why ZFR on N1?

I'm still high on flubbucket-is-Town and I still think the bler144-supplementscene interaction was Town-on-Town violence, hence P1na and SirPrimalform are Scum...?

I've been feel less good about P1na for a while now, so I'll

Vote P1na



As an aside:

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muddysneakers: If you assume 3 mafia, 3v3 start of D4 is game over unless mafia accidentally lynch VT. At that point it would at best be 1/3 for them to do that assuming they don't already know who it is. Even then at best town can hope for a tie. D4 all 3 mafia sit on one townie and all townies sit on one mafia. Double lynch one mafia and VT and VT kills another mafia.
I'm guessing VT means Vengeful Town in this paragraph? It's awfully confusing when that's also used to refer to Vanilla Town.
Posted November 20, 2018
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bler144: 1. There's a flaw in your premise, in that maf only NKed two. The other two we lynched, and might not have if they claimed PR. Right? 2/2 is far less notable than 4/4 selecting from a population in the range of 7-9. Neutral would have an advantage in being able to just go with the flow, wherever it leads as long as it's away from themselves.

I do think the choice of NK is interesting more for what it's not, than for what it is. I don't know exactly what to do with that observation, though.

2. Are you assuming no neutrals? Calling cristi town if she was neutral I would guess she'd def. reveal (and probably win in doing so), even if I agree she certainly looks townier than anyone else.
1. Except I have played in a large number of games where we lynched an important PR early on, so I consider the fact that our misses were 'only VT' to be lucky. You're not wrong about looking at what they weren't though, it might be possible spot someone being protected?

2. Ah, yes you're right, I was forgetting that possibility. Surely she wouldn't claim neutral if she was though?
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Ixamyakxim: Okay I hope this isn't a bad time... I was breadcrumbing a power role. And trying to protect ZFR.
Can you point to any more breadcrumbs? Things we might not have picked up on? Because the timing of this comes across as somewhat defensive, your two breadcrumbs are suspicious behaviour that you were being questioned on.

Can you tell us exactly who you investigated each night?
Post edited November 20, 2018 by SirPrimalform
Posted November 20, 2018
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SirPrimalform: ... careless blunder ...
Evil double poster! Double posters are highly suspect! And double posting is very unhealthy. Consider yourself warned. The next rule break may lead to your sudden and irrevocable demise by modkill!
Posted November 20, 2018
Wow, developments. Will check in when I reach my destination.
Posted November 20, 2018
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Ixamyakxim: Okay I hope this isn't a bad time... I was breadcrumbing a power role. And trying to protect ZFR.

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SirPrimalform: Hmm, upon rereading the EoD2 this jumps out. That final sentence "But I'm still not voting for you" seems strange. If you're scum then you know ZFR to be town at that point. This post weirdly acknowledges good reasons for voting for ZFR and then vocally abstains. Didn't want to get your hands dirty?
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Ixamyakxim: I... didn't want to get my hands dirty. I had copped Cristi and then ZFR as same. I really DIDN'T think I had gotten so lucky as to get two scum or BOTH Neutrals because that's just dumb. But when he did this I thought my "read" maybe was scummy. It wasn't - they're both obviously town. I begged you not to lynch him but at least cristi is legit at this point.

Muddy is NOT Same. But then I feel like muddy just basically just soft claimed neutral (twice says something to the effect of "if you lynch me today and I'm neutral, that's bad") and is right. If a three scum team we're screwed. I don't like it, I normally would policy lynch neutral (and I guess muddy *could* still be scum) but I don't know if we can risk it.

This was just a pop in before work. Mull it over. Hope I didn't screw up.
With this information we can test.

Unvote: SirPrimalform

Vote: muddysneakers
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionGOG Mafia #56 - The Witches of Salem(770 posts)(770 posts)
(770 posts)