Dammit, my game is off. That was the better joke.


Will attempt to regroup and do better.

Fair enough. Curious - have you played before much online or IRL?

Your questions of flub are good, for example.

And he actually answered you directly and clearly. ;)

Open question to everyone. Why scene last night?

Elaborate?



Is town expected not to self-pres, and why?


And?



Not sure I follow - are you reading what SirPrimalform said as subtle agreement with you, and are asking him this?


How are you trying to apply heat on flubbucket?

1. I know - P1na is voting flub. Thus my observation was you had the option of being #2 on flub, or #1 on agent at this particular moment/day, and chose the latter.

2. It's hard for me to imagine a scenario where I ever look at flub and ZFR and say "hey, they're doing the same thing!" ;)

Approach/reasoning matters, clarity/opacity, consistency with prior actions, timing and gamestate, etc.

I could elaborate if you wish, but I don't think it's fruitful.

3. Some of this seems like relative experience. When you're newish you never want town to die, and it's hard to relent that we didn't lynch #mytopchoice! #IknowIwould'vebeenrightthistime! and instead ended up lynching #lynchabletownie #sadface #whydidyoubastardskillKenny?.

The reality is D1 town and/or scum will join together to gleefully lynch town far more often than not because that's where the numbers are, and mafia have some leeway to manipulate those odds a bit further if they dare / need to. Mafia has spare info, would prefer to lynch town but usually doesn't "need it" to win, depending on PRs in play, mostly just need to avoid maf lynch; town always lacks and needs info, has spare bodies.

Lynching VT...is thus fairly inevitable. It's an average outcome. Not as good as lynching maf. Not even as good as lynching neutrals.

But it's far preferable to lynching town PR. Or getting three town to claim (PR or no it helps mafia PR-hunt by thinning the potential targets) and then no lynching. The game of Mafia has VT in the same way a chess game has pawns. Note that Joe didn't claim - he may not have been able to get online when he hoped to. He also may have believed that claiming VT on D1 may well have finished him off faster.

Fire drill voting, as you suggest, is always disorganized, which makes it easier to distort or manipulate votes (I had X as leaning town overall, but in that moment, I focused on that one thing they did because impulse!).

And you're no more likely to lynch right even if the impulse FEELS better, thus generally decreasing quality of info for town without improving the odds, and endangers town PR that might get lynched without claiming (have seen that a few times), or might be forced to claim when it was totally avoidable. I'm not sure I've ever seen a fire drill hit maf.

Does that make sense? You lynch hoping to hit right, but realistically you're going to hit wrong a lot. What you're playing for given that reality is maximizing info, and enjoying the times success does come. Work together, build methodically. Unless you're world's greatest cop, you're not going to win the game single-handed, and probably not even then.

This is pretty much exactly what flub is getting at in his post about staying on the wagon, just, you know, in 10,000 more words. ;)

TLDR: flub's post could be maf fake-lamenting. It could be town having a change of heart and real lamenting. It could be neutral doing whatever neutral flub does. Regardless, it was the most correct action tactically so it's hard to assume ill motivation in it.


https://youtu.be/u1FnYvk6KP0?t=47

No, I don't think SPF agrees with me. As has been pointed out previously if townZFR knows he's town and knows his own lynch is bad but he doesn't know Joe is town for sure and while he may suspect Joe is town a ZFR vote on Joe with the possibility of him being neutral or scum seems much better than a confirmed (to ZFR) vote on himself. That being said I'm not saying ZFR is lock town for me. Just that the vote on Joe and the comment isn't scummy to me. Flub made a similar comment while voting Joe without the EOD heat on him that ZFR had and came out swinging at ZFR today. It seems fishy to me.

No, I have not applied much heat to flub. I'm just surprised no one else has either. My attentions are more focused on agent right now but flub is definitely 2nd.

Finished rereading.

OK, Town points for flub. I don't see you adding a second mafia vote on my wagon so early.

I'm still strong gown on: bler, town-leaning on: muddy, cristi (and now flub). So your 2 partners are among: HSL, P1na, Ixam, agent?

@Lift, what are the deadlines for toDay?

1. I missed P1na's vote at the beginning.

3. I know it is unlikely we hit scum with the initial lynch but I see similarities between flub's comment and vote and ZFR's comment and vote that everyone else seems to either not see or disregard.

2. What are your reads on flub and ZFR?

2. https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_56_the_witches_of_salem/post279

3. Pretend I'm an idiot and missed it entirely. I am looking at the post where you question flub and his comment - I'm not sure what action/quote/post of ZFR's you're referring to in comparison. Link and/or quote for me, please?

Post 232 and Post 258

My view has swayed a bit because Joe's post #193 & 195 were thoughtful and concise. However, I can't see changing the lynch target at this juncture as pro-town.


Lift's vote count though made me realize I'm just 1 vote away from being co-lynched, so I switched back to Joe.


This could be my inexperience but these read similar to me and one not necessarily scummier than the other.

Normally I'd think so too but unless I'm a blind chicken with ADD he sort of breadcrumbed a role and hinted that he's a bit of a "big deal."

Plus if he is scum I don't get why he'd scream at the top of a steeple (did I spell that right?) that he voted to make sure he didn't get lynched. I almost want to slap a vote on you, but then I feel like YOU'RE too smart to not have known what he's doing. So maybe you're fishing too?

And am I the only one happy about Joe's flip after the non-claim? I mean I "assume" he was around to do it, but the wagon went fast at the end when we got close to end of day and I guess he could have missed his chance.

During a re-read I see also ZFR's post 263.

Additionally, 266, 273, 274, and perhaps most telling 278 wherein flub worries about a possible late day double lynch if he switches his vote. Turns out this is exactly what ZFR was worried about except it would be him on the chopping block.

So...there are layers/variables to both.

There are situations where one town should always value themselves over another unknown, and situations where it's riskier. For example, Joe's holding off on claim could have signified maf not wanting to have to claim in a mostly-open setup, but it could have signified Joe had a PR.

So...some potential risk.

In this case IIRC ZFR's vote/statement was far enough in advance that other voters could have changed wagons to save Joe if he was PR, and just as straight odds, in this setup, assuming ZFR is VT, he's assuming the odds of shifting the wagon to any other player hit non-town (estimating roughly) 4-5 out of 11 times, VT 4-5 times, and town PR only twice, thus only creates a worse result 2 times in 11, and an improved result roughly 2-2.5x as often.

If he's town PR, as Ix seems to not so subtly propose, then he always makes that play, same as if he's non-town.

With flub's statement, it's more how you handle it. Flub didn't say "I think he's town, why are you bastards making me do this! I blame you when instead we could be voting ____!" he's simply saying that he's buying the claim, but holding tight.

Oh, sorry. I'm slow. Gotcha. I think. I just blanked on the context of WHY you were asking for clarification and was focused on the actions themselves.

<I had to go back and re-read D2 - sorry for meta explaining my post flow>

It is notable that SPF is pressing voting ZFR on that basis, and agent appears to be pressing in tandem. I don't know that either is wolfy in its own right, and highly unlikely to both be wolfing on the same player with the same gambit even though I think they're both nuts here, so I'd tucked it aside and planned to look at it in the context of an overall re-read of each.

As for flub going at ZFR, I don't think he's responding to what ZFR did at the time, he's responding to ZFR's ex post facto framing of it. I don't see anything factually wrong with what ZFR said - my guess is it's something in the tone, or probably more likely the fact the ZFR felt a need to excuse himself by even bringing it up unprompted.

Which is a fair point, if that's what is flub's trigger. I showed up 20 posts in, so it completely slipped me that ZFR doesn't seem to be responding to anything at all there and just volunteered "Hey, I'm innocent in case nobody noticed!!!"

That is def eyebrow worthy.

Of the three attacks, I definitely like flub's the best there, despite its ambiguity.

I probably need to re-assess ZFR.



Forget why you made the vote D1. Why make this post to start D2, rather than, like assess what to do next, or what your reads are now, yada etc.?

Did I say Joe made any scumtells??