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JoeSapphire: Yes: Here is a fair argument -
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bler144: <snip>
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JoeSapphire: It's wrong, but it's fair.

Here are some unfair arguments:
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bler144: <snip>
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JoeSapphire:
Uhhh.. I can't see the difference. Arguments re meta-reading is fair and arguments re in-game stuff is unfair? #iambeingdeliberatelystupidtomakeapoint

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JoeSapphire: Lack of reasoning for mafia predictions - if referring to TRUFAX, see above. If referring to my list, meh.
Ah. So I shouldn't judge your actions solely based on your actions, I should judge them in light of the previous game that I wasn't a part of. /s

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JoeSapphire: Pushing double lynch - Calling it 'pushing' is a bit harsh. I suggested it twice in one post, and haven't posted since. You're the only person who has mentioned any problem with it, and ZFR seemed skeptical of that problem. (incidentally it occured to me that we'd have two lynches but less votes on each, so theoretically mafia have greater control over two lynches, so maybe that's a problem) (tell a lie! bler mentioned that a shorter game makes parity cop much weaker, but took an overall neutral stance on it) ANYWAY I'm sure if I said that I'd gone off the idea now somebody would say "as soon as you got criticism for it you changed your mind", but in fact, I haven't gone off the idea. Bler's summary; If we want a high risk high tension game we should do it; makes me want to do it all the more.
I didn't read bler144's stance as neutral, but we can agree to disagree on that. I guess if others want high-risk high-reward, I can't do much to stop it. I think it's a bad idea.

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JoeSapphire: Posting IIoA - I stated the players that I thought were town, and the players that I would be willing to vote for. I would call that sorting players. I'll admit that my reads aren't much, but I don't think much of anybody's reads so far.
You "stated the players that you thought were town," huh? That's not quite what your post says.

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JoeSapphire: Bler - I was thinking of bler/scene's combat as Not Alignment Indicative, but a clash of playstyles. Bler's confirmed it just now. It's a shame but it happens.
Town or Scum? No indication

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JoeSapphire: Supplementscene - Playing very typically. If he's on a scumteam my guess is that it's with IxamYakxim, but that is a VERY tentative, barely-informed guess.
Town or Scum? No indication

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JoeSapphire: HypersomniacLive - voted immediately and had short posts, which Bler thought might be some sort of softclaim. I didn't care to read too much into it. behaving typically now.
Town or Scum? No indication

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JoeSapphire: Agent - come at me swinging with an argument that I don't think is entirely fair. But that makes me think him more town than mafia. Anybody can be wrong. (well, I guess town will be wrong and mafia will pretend to be wrong, won't they? Neutrals will be wrong too I suppose. So I guess I think mafia might not pretend to be wrong in this manner, but I don't know this player yet.)
Town or Scum? Likely town. Unless he's not.

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JoeSapphire: Ixamyakixim - not much to go on, I think. He suspects me?
Town or Scum? No indication

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JoeSapphire: ZFR - I'm sort of giving him a 'free pass to survive day one' to be honourable? I dunno.
Town or Scum? No indication

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JoeSapphire: muddysneakers - sorry for forgetting you! I like his posts and he's a new player, so he can fight over ZFR's pass.
Town or Scum? No indication.

So of the 11 players that you give reads on: 7 you don't give a scum/town read, 3 you give a scum read, and 1 you give a town read. Sure, I have a number of players still in my neutral category, but I'm being quite open about what I think of them.

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JoeSapphire: Maybe I'm prioritising the game wrong and I should just ignore the things people say to me...
Not the best way to avoid getting lynched. But I can understand the feeling. Hope you're not feeling personally attacked.

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JoeSapphire: But you seem sure of yourself
I am 100% sure of something. Also, it gets tiresome typing "it's my opinion that" before every opinion, so I just assume that my opinions are gospel truth.

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JoeSapphire: You're starting to convince me I AM mafia.
I want to play in a game with you where you aren't mafia. We'd have so much fun if I wasn't trying to lynch you.
Unvote Joe

Vote SPF


Joe's posts make me think he's more likely Neutral
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bler144: [...] scene is still my preferred [...]
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bler144: [...] if we're not voting scene anything else is a compromise vote anyway. [...]
I've gone over your posts in regards to supplementscene, and it's not clear to me why exactly you'd prefer to lynch him - is it because you think he's scum, is it because his play is anti-town even if town, or because he falls into "won't self-resolve over time"?

Could you clarify which case it is, and summarise your arguments for it?


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bler144: [...] he's the sureset bet for hitting non-town, [...]
If only betting was allowed...

BTW, what does "pf" mean?


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bler144: [...] He made a valid question in #50, albeit of a player who probably wasn't prepared to answer it. [...]
[emphasis added]

Why are we back to this, when it's been pointed out to you thrice now that said player did answer that question?


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bler144: [...] And he is making pushes. [...]
Could you point them out?


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bler144: [...] But compared to P1na or ZFR given what's on the table, yeah, he gets the vote for sure 10 times out of 10.

vote Joe
Are you actually scum-reading him, as in "one of the mafia"?


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bler144: [...] @HSL - is this still where you want to be? If so, why? [...]
I'm not sure, I don't like the "people may well fool me, so I'll just sit here and do nothing until I hop on a wagon of someone else's making" attitude in his response to you in post #167. And for someone that doesn't play the meta-game, he seems (overly?) concerned about it.
@HSL that's a good analysis under the spotlight. However if Joe is using his dad's internet, his dad is going to want to lock up before bedtime, so Joe is going to have to leave for that reason. Otherwise there is allot of suspect posting.

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ZFR: Unvote Joe

Vote SPF


Joe's posts make me think he's more likely Neutral
I read him Neutral too. Definitely reads playing for survival in a rather obvious way. But then again I don't think we're getting Scum in day 1 either......

Also what is the case against SPF again?

@Joe I think you're at the stage now that you want to claim honestly
The sun, while not visible, seems to be setting outside. The overcast sky turns red in the west, while the rain stops. On the village square, which you can see through the barred windows, the villagers set large torches around the village oak and a noose is fastened to a strong branch. The authorities haven't asked for your verdict yet, but soon they will. Who is it going to be?

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Daily vote count


agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 3 - P1na (19), SirP (122), muddy (160)
Joe 4 - flubb (129), Ixam (156), bler (165), agent (178)
P1na 2 - HSL (24), Joe (149)
SirP 1 - ZFR (197)
bler 1 - scene (96)

Joe is closest to lynch at L-3. In case of errors, yell.
Post edited November 10, 2018 by Lifthrasil
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Lifthrasil: The sun, while not visible, seems to be setting outside. The overcast sky turns red in the west, while the rain stops. On the village square, which you can see through the barred windows, the villagers set large torches around the village oak and a noose is fastened to a strong branch. The authorities haven't asked for your verdict yet, but soon they will. Who is it going to be?

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Daily vote count


agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 3 - P1na (19), SirP (122), muddy (160)
Joe 4 - flubb (129), Ixam (156), bler (165), agent (178)
P1na 2 - HSL (24), Joe (149)
SirP 1 - ZFR (197)
bler 1 - scene (96)

Joe is closest to lynch at L-3. In case of errors, yell.
There was an error that was clearly edited, votes for mod killing Lift....
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supplementscene: There was an error that was clearly edited, votes for mod killing Lift....
Too late. I can't be killied. I am mod and as such I transcend the concept of death!

That is not dead which can eternal lie
For with strange eons, even Death may die!
Post edited November 10, 2018 by Lifthrasil
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muddysneakers: [...] ZFR, thanks for the vote of confidence in multiple posts. Is this scum buddying a townie or scum pretending to coach a townie or am I just reading too much into things? Not sure. [...]
Heh, nicely done. Could you elaborate on what has you scum-reading him?


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muddysneakers: [...] Joe's unvote of SPF doesn't sit well with me either. [...]
Why? Were you convinced by the reason he gave for it?



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P1na: [...] I can't rule out the possibility of them playing in a certain way to throw their meta off and do better next game, for example. I know I might do something like that if I was a regular player. [...]
Since you declared not playing the meta game, I'm not sure I follow why and how this is a concern for you.



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Ixamyakxim: [...] I really have no formed opinion on flubb or ZFR yet [...]
Where does flubbucket fit in here?


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Ixamyakxim: [...] I DO NOT LIKE all the 2 votes. Sure I pushed Joe to three for now which makes me feel a bit better. I might have missed it, but I saw in the vote count that I self voted so I'm guessing we're in Phase 2? I understand we will probably mislynch a townie Day One, I DO NOT WANT to accidentally lynch two.
I didn't particularly like them either, but for a different reason.

But here's the thing about Phase 2 [emphasis added]:
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Lifthrasil: [...] Phase 2: everyone not voting will be considered voting for herself. (voting No-Lynch is a valid vote too) If an absolute majority is reached, the Day still ends as usual. At some unspecified point after the Decision Bell, Phase 2 will suddenly end. (With the authorities coming in and counting the votes). The person with the most votes will be lynched. An absolute majority is NOT necessary. If two people tie, both will be lynched. If three or more tie, a random lynchee will be chosen from among them. [...]
The OP says "die" instead of "tie", but that's a typo (right @Lifthrasil?). So with more than two ties, only one person gets actually lynched.



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agentcarr16: [...] Hrm.

Unvote supplementscene [...]
"Hrm" what about that vote count?

And why unvote supplementscene, at least why before doing those re-reads?


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agentcarr16: [...] losing three non-scum [...]
Define "non-scum"?



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Lifthrasil: [...] Joe is closest to lynch at L-3. In case of errors, yell.
What is the meaning of terms like "L-3" when we're in Phase 2?
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HypersomniacLive: What is the meaning of terms like "L-3" when we're in Phase 2?
You can still hammer in phase 2 if absolute majority is reached.

Looking at vote count, sorry Joe, but I'm at risk of getting co-lynched and SPF wagon is not happening and I'll be out tomorrow till afternoon.

So, sorry to go back and forth, but

vote Joe
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muddysneakers: [...] ZFR, thanks for the vote of confidence in multiple posts. Is this scum buddying a townie or scum pretending to coach a townie or am I just reading too much into things? Not sure. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: Heh, nicely done. Could you elaborate on what has you scum-reading him?

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muddysneakers: [...] Joe's unvote of SPF doesn't sit well with me either. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: Why? Were you convinced by the reason he gave for it?
As I said, the SPF, ZFR, Joe exchange seemed weird. I didn't like that Joe commented on ZFR's supposed touchiness of SPF's RVS vote on him and then voted on SPF instead of ZFR. Maybe it was just RVS with a flourish. Joe seems all over the place but maybe that's just his playstyle.

Regarding ZFR I was a little suspicious of his explanations for my play. Others commented but he seemed more sure of my innocence. Not much but that's what it was.

Agent, I still have no idea what you're talking about in regards to flub.
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agentcarr16: Bad idea on Day 1. We have very little information and the best (worst?) statistical odds of hitting town. It's a possibility later in the game, but I think it's a horrible idea for Day 1.
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ZFR: Why?

By this reasoning one lynch is "bad idea on Day 1" because "We have very little information and the best (worst?) statistical odds of hitting town."

A lynch is Town's weapon. Why not use it twice if given the opportunity? We get info from 2 wagons instead of one.
ZFR, are you serious about this D1? I'm with agent on this, could be a possibility later but this early when everyone is flailing in the dark seems really bad.
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JoeSapphire: [...] Wouldn't you be? ;) [...]
The question is - should I be?


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JoeSapphire: [...] Hm. When you put it that way, it does sound pretty bad. You're starting to convince me I AM mafia. [...]
Funny; is town and mafia the only possible alignments in this setup?


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JoeSapphire: [...] Something that is genuine is more genuine than something that is not at all genuine. [...]
Ah, the wonderful art of sophistry.



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supplementscene: [...] However if Joe is using his dad's internet, his dad is going to want to lock up before bedtime, so Joe is going to have to leave for that reason. [...]
That was more of a joke, hence posted before and separately from the rest; pretty certain JoeSapphire got it.



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ZFR: You can still hammer in phase 2 if absolute majority is reached. [...]
I guess mechanics is safe enough a topic to quote-reply to me.



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muddysneakers: As I said, the SPF, ZFR, Joe exchange seemed weird. I didn't like that Joe commented on ZFR's supposed touchiness of SPF's RVS vote on him and then voted on SPF instead of ZFR. Maybe it was just RVS with a flourish. Joe seems all over the place but maybe that's just his playstyle. [...]
I'm not sure I follow what you're saying here. I assume you're referring to JoeSapphire's #104, yes? Could you rephrase?

And I'd appreciate a bump, have a separate post to make.
Here's something that drew my attention:

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Lifthrasil: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ --- --

Corrected vote count:

scene 1 - bler (91)
agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 2 - P1na (19), SirP (122)
P1na 1 - HSL (24)
SirP 2 - ZFR (83), Joe (106)
bler 1 - scene (96)
cristi 1 - muddy (30)

not voting: agent, Ixam, flubb
ZFR and SirP are leading at L-5
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muddysneakers vote is wrong (they'd had voted No-Lynch in post #112), but that doesn't affect things.

Lifthrasil mentions the imminent Decision Bell In the same post. If that status remained unchanged, both ZFR and SirPrimalform would be lynched. That's post #124.

In post #127, agentcarr16, with a lot of theatrics, votes supplementscene, changing the vote count to:
scene 2 - bler (91), agent (127)
agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 2 - P1na (19), SirP (122)
P1na 1 - HSL (24)
SirP 2 - ZFR (83), Joe (106)
bler 1 - scene (96)
No-Lynch 1 - muddy (112)

not voting: Ixam, flubb
ZFR, SirP and scene are leading at L-5
If that status remained, one of the three would be randomly lynched.

flubbucket restarts the JoeSapphire wagon in post #129:
scene 2 - bler (91), agent (127)
agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 2 - P1na (19), SirP (122)
P1na 1 - HSL (24)
SirP 2 - ZFR (83), Joe (106)
bler 1 - scene (96)
Joe 1 - flubb (129)
No-Lynch 1 - muddy (112)

not voting: Ixam
ZFR, SirP and scene are leading at L-5
JoeSapphire, after a another round of "whoops", moves away from SirPrimalform and casts a vote on P1na with no decent reason in post #149, shifting the vote standing:
scene 2 - bler (91), agent (127)
agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 2 - P1na (19), SirP (122)
P1na 2 - HSL (24), Joe (149)
SirP 1 - ZFR (83)
bler 1 - scene (96)
Joe 1 - flubb (129)
No-Lynch 1 - muddy (112)

not voting: Ixam
ZFR, scene and P1na are leading at L-5
And shortly afterwards, ZFR also moves away from SirPrimalform (and poof goes his wagon) and votes JoeSapphire in post #152, adding him to the pool of players for the random lynch:
scene 2 - bler (91), agent (127)
agent 1 - cristi (65)
ZFR 2 - P1na (19), SirP (122)
P1na 2 - HSL (24), Joe (149)
bler 1 - scene (96)
Joe 2 - flubb (129), ZFR (152)
No-Lynch 1 - muddy (112)
SirP 0

not voting: Ixam
ZFR, scene, P1na and JoeSapphire are leading at L-5
Was all this vote-shifting genuine? Or was someone manipulating the ties in anticipation of Phase 2, trying to protect someone? If yes, who and whom?

I was watching to see how things developed from there, and hoping for a pace that might have allowed for (some) dots to be connected, but JoeSapphire's wagon gained quite the steam in a rather short time-span, with Ixamyakxim, bler144, and agentcarr16 - three votes in the span of 22 posts, with a forth one (ZFR's/post #197) 20 posts later.
While supplementscene's wagon dissolved completely, and ZFR's one gained a little bit more steam with muddysneakers' vote (post #160). Steam that's artificial, as P1na's vote was a joke RVS one, and he's already stated that he's going to move it off of him, yet enough (at least for the moment) for ZFR to return back on JoeSapphire claiming "risk of getting co-lynched".

Perhaps I'm reading too much into all of this, as it happened fairly early in Phase 2. But every time I return to it, I get a funny feeling that something (more) was going on here. So, keeping it in mind for later.
And while I see enough wrong with JoeSapphire's play, his wagon went to L-2 quite quickly. Which is usually an indication that it's a convenient one for one or more of those on it (and off it). More so with the absolute majority hammer still in play.
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HypersomniacLive: words
Interesting observation. But unless you think you've hit two mafia and two neutral there's some town in there.

With Joe's wagon taking off and him one of the ones changing votes you must not suspect him as mafia then right?

Additionally, you mention SPF's wagon going poof but Joe was first to leave that wagon and now he's on the chopping block so why would ZFR feel the need to move?

Need to take a closer look at this.
Huh. Quite a bit on the table.

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SirPrimalform: I don't think that's the case.
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P1na: At the time of writing, you and ZFR were tied with 2 votes each. Unvoting ZFR would make you lead the lynching list.
Apparently I read this post earlier since part of it I recognize, but I missed this bit.

...did you really feel in that moment the day was at any risk of ending with the leading wagon having 2 votes?

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supplementscene: OK, well I was all set to change my vote from Bler, which no one is getting on, to Joe who was my next in line. No one agrees with my Bler tunnel, so maybe I over analysed, I'm not sure
Just as feedback, your argument was like 95% OMGUS, so even people who might agree with bits of it are going to tend to discount the whole, and they probably have other things pinging them more, or want to see your theory tested in other ways/connections first.

If you think someone hounding you is non-town, especially if it's literally the first vote on you D1 which counts for literally bupkis, your better course is to prod/question/observe, and come up with something before you go at them.

If you go at them first and start just piling on "and thens!" people will tend to think you're now both OMGUS and tunneling.

Plus the reality in this game is that if you have 12 players you'll probably have 12 differing opinions on the same set of facts, in part because every town player knows at least one thing generally no one else does (your own alignment/role), which will frame your view on what's targeted at you, the "truth" of what you've got going out, etc. Plus add in different playstyles, beliefs, etc.

And the reality is, statistically, at least most of the people who end up voting for you will be town. Town has both the numbers, and less info, thus lots of mistakes in the aggregate.

So you can't start with the assumption that anyone accusing you - esp D1 - is scum. Ask questions - challenge their assumptions, but if YOU are town in that scenario it has to be from the standpoint of solving/sorting whether they believe what they are saying (right or not), and whether the arguments could hold water or whether there are wolfy features - not jumping immediately to locked in killing it with fire.

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supplementscene: Christi hasn't given much analysis.
Are you suggesting there's not much analysis period? Or that what's passing for analysis is her echoing others' analysis? (I confess I haven't looked closely at that latter, but there's definitely some significant analysis and clear stances there, esp. compared to a number of others) I would disagree with the former, she's just concise/efficient and less verbose than some of us.

That said, this is just how she plays D1 of any alignment, so...


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flubbucket: Waiting until L-1 and the last minute, as we usually do, is less than strategic.
I mean, forming the first viable wagon in phase 2 is also less than strategic given how many people play asynchronously, but that didn't stop us here either. ;)

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SirPrimalform: Claiming at L-1 should be a given, but I think when we're getting towards the end of phase 2, a leading wagon should perhaps claim anyway at their discretion.
Yeah, I agree, I just think we're likely to end up in situations that make that harder than it sounds. If there's 5 hours left and everyone is on, being the leading wagon by 1 vote is NBD. If it turns out there's really 1 hour left and practically no one is on, it's kinda too late.


Looking at how much still to go, and how many people apparently want to ask me questions, sadly this will likely be a few more wall-o-textses coming. Sorry not sorry.

I'd say bump, but realistically getting through the next few will likely take >10 anyway.