gogtrial34987: [...] Something I discussed with Joe early on was that Mafia gets exactly the same amount of power in 7T vs 5T, and in 2T vs 0T, while in both cases town gets an additional power. [...]
HypersomniacLive: Looking through the C9++ setup determination, going from one letter to two, each role (except for the Cop and Mason roles) becomes a regular one + a 1-shot one.
And except for the Vigilante. So only the Doctor and the Roleblocker go from 1 full role to 1 full role + 1 1-shot.
Not that that matters, as I was talking about scenarios where town was getting two additional PR rolls (of course, I confused matters by saying "town gets an additional power" instead of "town gets additional power").
gogtrial34987: [...] Since we might be in the 0T scenario, could we just be a reduced "additional power"? Our day-chat is a bit better for town than the regular night-chat which Masons get according to the setup document. [...]
HypersomniacLive: Not sure I follow why you're limiting this to the 0T scenario.
My original speculation noted that in the 7T and 5T, and in the 2T and 0T setups, scum composition was identical, but town gained two extra PR rolls. If Joe and me are "MM", then we're either in the 1T or 0T scenario, where 0T looks most likely due to three nights with a single kill.
HypersomniacLive: I also don't quite see what the "reduced additional power" is in having a Lovers pair.
Both Bookwyrm and Vitek have concurred that we're strictly worse for town than regular lovers, which was also the feeling that Joe and me had early on. One kill removes two town players, instead of it needing two kills.
HypersomniacLive: As for the Day-Chat, that's just marginally better than the Night-Chat, so I'm not sure it balances out things enough.
Agreed. But before you seemed to be arguing that Lovers aren't worse than Masons, and now you're saying that the marginal utility of the day-chat doesn't balance out the [implied] loss of town power from Lovers. So I'm left somewhat confused what you were aiming for here. Would you care to clarify?
gogtrial34987: [...] I always like it when you say "Heh". It makes me feel all warm and fuzzy, and vaguely convinced that I said something smart, even if half the time I can't quite point to what that smart thing could've been. [...]
HypersomniacLive: Heh. Do I get scum-points only when I say you're speaking and acting smart?
I've sadly decided not to reveal more details of my proprietary scum-point awarding algorithm. You can however rest assured that it's based on many significant variables, could be using machine learning, and might very well be based on blockchain technology.
gogtrial34987: [...] Out of interest, if we're not lovers, do you honestly believe that I would've gone along with this? I think I was as universally townread as Vitek, trent and you, and think that if I was mafia, I could easily have coasted along to at least the final three. [...]
HypersomniacLive: Well, which of the following has better chances?
1. Let your remaining buddy die, and ride it alone, as a first time scum, with a single vote in the game, and hope that the townies won't figure it out, and thus not turn against you?
2. False-claim Lovers which not only immediately takes you both off the table, but also gives you a position of power and influence over the lynches, and ride it together with two votes in the game?
Never having been in either position (that's LAMIST, right? See, I'm learning!) ;P - my gut feeling about what I'd do as mafia is still very much on 1.
gogtrial34987: Not wanting to risk that remaining PR being another doctor?
HypersomniacLive: On another note, the wording of that last bit I quoted suggests quite some confidence/certainty in another PR being in play. That's after you've already mentioned the 0T scenario. Any particular reason you seem to think this is our setup?
Besides the lack of a second NK three nights in a row? Well, I also think I spotted a breadcrumb at some point during the game. Could very easily be nothing (Joe thinks it isn't a breadcrumb), and I certainly won't point to this, as I have a hard enough time figuring out how to play my own role well, let alone trying to second guess if this PR should reveal.
So I think it
likely that we're in 0T. Still, I'm not discounting the 1T-scenario with SK, nor the possibility of me and Joe not being MM at all. Any "confidence" you read in my hypothesizing about scum-mindset is entirely up to you.
HypersomniacLive: As soon as I started playing forum mafia, I went and made my bus-driver's license, then bought me a shiny new bus; this way I don't have to depend on regular bus routes like Vitek.
Thanks. So would you say that your lack of vote on scene is indicative of you being town?
HypersomniacLive: I know that trentonlf has said the same thing in at least one past game, but I'm pretty sure I've never seen it in action myself.
He also reiterated it in this game. Does this mean you doubt his statement?
HypersomniacLive: Does everyone answering for themselves help you, and in what way?
As long as no one questions the statements that were made, it might indeed help (questioning might help in other matters). A little bit with looking at scene. Hopefully a lot with looking at the final scum once we've nailed the next one. 'course, I had hoped for at least some of you mentioning reluctance to bus, but except for Bookwyrm, you're all outdoing each other in how gung-ho you apepar to be to be bussing.
gogtrial34987: [...] (or mylo if me and Joe live until tomorrow).
HypersomniacLive: Heh. Any ideas on why you'd be still alive Tomorrow?
If we'd still be alive, we'd be in higher-WIFOM territory. I'd probably be worrying about SPF again. But yeah, no, I don't expect to be alive tomorrow; that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.
I should probably think about if/how catching or not catching scum today would change the equation there, but real life has come knocking on the door, so I'm going to wrap up this post instead.
HypersomniacLive: The claim itself and its timing was damn convenient (said so Yesterday already)
Everyone who voted determined the timing.
HypersomniacLive: Additionally, gogtrial34987 made a case to get back on the mchack wagon in post #723, and when I asked him to elaborate on why mchack’s votes look opportunistic, his reply was [emphasis added]:
gogtrial34987: [...] That'd need looking up the details again,
so maybe later.
HypersomniacLive: That was around the 2hrs mark, enough time to go back and check, especially if he’s keeping notes like he’s said somewhere, so why just "maybe later"?
Because one minute later, Joe would claim, and I knew that conversation would be needing my attention?
I do keep notes, but I didn't keep specific notes on this impression, so I'd have to go back to each of his votes and reconstruct it.
HypersomniacLive: That’s on top of town-reading JoeSapphire for saying “let the day play out”, and not participating in cutting the Day short (post #745). When at the same time, Bookwyrm627 who did exactly that, but it didn’t affect the strong town-read he still had on the latter one iota, as his experience could be used to lynch mchack for allegedly false-claiming.
Please reference where you get the impression from that Bookwyrm's day ending behaviour didn't affect my read of him? It most certainly did.
HypersomniacLive: Whatever. You guys want to lynch me? Go ahead. I take comfort in the only redeeming thing my mislynch comes with - scum has succeeded to suck the town lot into the distraction that's me for three Days now, so with me out of the picture, the town lot may, just may, finally try to catch actual scum before it's too late for us.
If you flip town, what will that tell us?
@Bookwyrm, @trent and anyone else who's played semi-regularly with HSL: Does this emotion ring true?
I really like that HSL is still obviously trying to solve the game; I particularly like it if I take my own omgus reaction out of the picture. As for the attitude... I can kinda see it as either alignment. Does the former weigh enough to take him off the table for today? *ponders* Quite possibly... Let me mull that over a bit and see if that sticks.
There's probably more in #927 and later posts to respond to, but I must skedaddle for now.
JoeSapphire: Vitek - ToDay he makes me laugh and like him very much. It seems like a long time since he did the things that make we wary. He's trent's top town read. Nobody else suspects him in the slightest. vote vitek 
Vitek: Biggest point against SPF being anyone scumbuddy is how scene tried to redirect his lynch to him while he was simple goon. So for me it is not really issue of SPF unable to be buddy with some living one, more like with scene. gotcha. I did know that. Makes sense, and seems to fit. Which means Sprimal is the serial killer playing the most dangerous game, and once we've taken out flubbucket we should lynch Sprimal. 
