You spelled it funny so I put it right.

gotcha. I did know that. Makes sense, and seems to fit. Which means Sprimal is the serial killer playing the most dangerous game, and once we've taken out flubbucket we should lynch Sprimal.


so not a trap! Still no-one else has anything to say on the matter. Probably a bad idea if the only positive is that it might tell us we don't have a serial killer but-with-a-promised-twist-we-can't-really-trust-that-anyway... Other than the old we-might-be-able-to-force-scum-into-a-bad-lie which is the whole point of a mass claim and is also great fun.

posting for now, because this nintendo can't copy everything over to another thing so I've already had to re-write the second half of the above q%

more on the way

Shame on him.


I wanted to ask what trent asked already.
From you posts I get the impression that you don't believe their masvers claim. Is that correct feeling?
So is your main theory right now that they are mafia and everyone else is town.
I am not saying that you consider other confirmed town, only that if it is your current inclination.

I intend to most likely vote you, btw. so if there is someone else with similar notion, you could consider claiming.

There are good reasonings, bad one, terrible ones and then there is this.

Heh, it makes me feel like only thing hecan do right now is to try to make us feel bad for him and not vote him.

This seems to be too long a post. Which is annoying, as that'd mean I have to wait 10 minutes in between. (Do posts merge is together they'd become too long?)
Bump please, if anyone's around?

There, I'm back in action. (Exhausted, but I'll hopefully go take a long walk outside in the sunshine later to regain some energy.) Some initial responses below. After this I'm intending to ignore current happenings in favour of digging back through the thread. I'm worrying that I'm still overlooking something / thinking too simplistically about the game state. I'd strongly prefer to take most of the time that we have to come to a conclusion, and not be overly hasty with lynching.

As I haven't been paying enough attention to you: Did you state this before at any point? Could you give me the highlights of what makes you townread him?

Do you have any pointers to things that made you form this conclusion? (My interrupted reread has as its main goal to see if I can't draw some conclusions like this myself.)

Given the "I'd kiss probably mutilate" weirdness in your phrasing: You're saying HSL=scum, trent=town, and Bookwyrm is in between, with you originally wanting to put him in the town slot?

Thanks. So would you say that your reluctance to vote for anyone for most of this game, is indicative of you being town? Or just of your scum buddy managing to stay completely away from bus lanes and all other forms of roads?

Thanks.

Sounds good to me. Let's do it like that. Given that Joe will be out today, tomorrow (Sunday) will be the most likely day to make this work. @Joe: Any chance you can let us know in advance when you're likely to be online on Sunday?

As with EoD day 1, I have a high chance of not being around between monday evening (European time) and EoD, so monday evening will be my personal target date/time for achieving lynch. Will try to monitor from work on Tuesday, but I doubt I'll manage to be around and capable of posting.

Any pointers to what shapes your thinking on HSL + trent working, and on HSL + Bookwyrm being less likely?

And except for the Vigilante. So only the Doctor and the Roleblocker go from 1 full role to 1 full role + 1 1-shot.
Not that that matters, as I was talking about scenarios where town was getting two additional PR rolls (of course, I confused matters by saying "town gets an additional power" instead of "town gets additional power").

My original speculation noted that in the 7T and 5T, and in the 2T and 0T setups, scum composition was identical, but town gained two extra PR rolls. If Joe and me are "MM", then we're either in the 1T or 0T scenario, where 0T looks most likely due to three nights with a single kill.

Both Bookwyrm and Vitek have concurred that we're strictly worse for town than regular lovers, which was also the feeling that Joe and me had early on. One kill removes two town players, instead of it needing two kills.

Agreed. But before you seemed to be arguing that Lovers aren't worse than Masons, and now you're saying that the marginal utility of the day-chat doesn't balance out the [implied] loss of town power from Lovers. So I'm left somewhat confused what you were aiming for here. Would you care to clarify?

I've sadly decided not to reveal more details of my proprietary scum-point awarding algorithm. You can however rest assured that it's based on many significant variables, could be using machine learning, and might very well be based on blockchain technology.

Never having been in either position (that's LAMIST, right? See, I'm learning!) ;P - my gut feeling about what I'd do as mafia is still very much on 1.

Besides the lack of a second NK three nights in a row? Well, I also think I spotted a breadcrumb at some point during the game. Could very easily be nothing (Joe thinks it isn't a breadcrumb), and I certainly won't point to this, as I have a hard enough time figuring out how to play my own role well, let alone trying to second guess if this PR should reveal.
So I think it likely that we're in 0T. Still, I'm not discounting the 1T-scenario with SK, nor the possibility of me and Joe not being MM at all. Any "confidence" you read in my hypothesizing about scum-mindset is entirely up to you.

Thanks. So would you say that your lack of vote on scene is indicative of you being town?

He also reiterated it in this game. Does this mean you doubt his statement?

As long as no one questions the statements that were made, it might indeed help (questioning might help in other matters). A little bit with looking at scene. Hopefully a lot with looking at the final scum once we've nailed the next one. 'course, I had hoped for at least some of you mentioning reluctance to bus, but except for Bookwyrm, you're all outdoing each other in how gung-ho you apepar to be to be bussing.

If we'd still be alive, we'd be in higher-WIFOM territory. I'd probably be worrying about SPF again. But yeah, no, I don't expect to be alive tomorrow; that just doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

I should probably think about if/how catching or not catching scum today would change the equation there, but real life has come knocking on the door, so I'm going to wrap up this post instead.

Everyone who voted determined the timing.

Because one minute later, Joe would claim, and I knew that conversation would be needing my attention?
I do keep notes, but I didn't keep specific notes on this impression, so I'd have to go back to each of his votes and reconstruct it.

Please reference where you get the impression from that Bookwyrm's day ending behaviour didn't affect my read of him? It most certainly did.

If you flip town, what will that tell us?

@Bookwyrm, @trent and anyone else who's played semi-regularly with HSL: Does this emotion ring true?

I really like that HSL is still obviously trying to solve the game; I particularly like it if I take my own omgus reaction out of the picture. As for the attitude... I can kinda see it as either alignment. Does the former weigh enough to take him off the table for today? *ponders* Quite possibly... Let me mull that over a bit and see if that sticks.

There's probably more in #927 and later posts to respond to, but I must skedaddle for now.

Bit of an ATE eh?

"If you lynch me, you're gonna look so stupid!"

I would have thought that my role in the last game would indicate that I don't have a problem with looking stupid. ;)

Heh. Except I didn't believe him. Obviously you accept all claims without question as evidenced on D1. :P

I joke. I don't have a problem with you having believed scene but rather your actions following that.

I didn't have the energy to campaign for your lynch when I seemed to be the only person even interested so I just did what I could to avoid a no lynch.

The difference between me voting for mchack because I didn't believe him and you not voting for scene because you did believe him was that scene was a dead man walking. The only way he could survive was if he'd lied, which basically made it a policy lynch. I can think of no pro-town reasons for holding off from that.
I'm judging your logic after the fact, not your reads. It has nothing to do with hindsight based on scene's flip. Even if we had lynched scene EoD1 and he'd magically flipped town it would still have been the right thing to do because we would have just been pre-empting the modkill so it would have been functionally equivalent to a no lynch.

There were 4 possible endings to D1 at the last second -

1. Scene was telling the truth, lynched and flips town before the modkill hits - town!Scene is dead
2. Scene was lying, lynched and flips mafia - scum!Scene is dead
3. Scene was telling the truth and we don't lynch, modkill - town!Scene is dead
4. Scene was lying and we don't lynch - scum!Scene is alive

The only situation in which scene lived was a bad one and your deliberate (lack of) action chose it. As I said before, I'm not faulting your read using hindsight, I'm challenging the logic you used at the time using the knowledge we had at the time.

Holy shit, your post just keeps on going. Sorry, that rant has drained me a bit. Back later.

EBWOP
...than regular masons

I haven't given that particular line of argument any credence myself; I recall both me and Lift also questioning/pushing scene to read the rules / pay attention, etc.
However, that also means that I haven't been paying attention to who all has been pushing the argument, and this just startled me into realizing it might be a significant pointer, particularly if you do get lynched and actually flip town. You mention Vitek and SPF. Anyone else? (If you have post numbers, I'd appreciate them.)

Ok, so just the most and least scummy out of Bookwyrm/trent/Vitek?

1. Post 322, EoD 1 when scene and Vitek were the two main wagons.
Post 656, Day 2 when I had voted mchack for the second time after doing an ISO of people
3. Post 884, When you asked me 5 minutes to go in a Lylo situation on of each of who I would find town and scum .
I see Vitek as scum hunting and trying to figure out who's lying and why. The vibe I get from his is Town trying to figure things out

Both SPF and bookwyrm have voted HSL and if one of them was one of his buddies they would be busing them when I would not see busing as necessary as HSL has not been under a lot of scrutiny and pressure up to this point. SPF has suspected HSL since the start of Day 3 (I think) and has stated multiple times they think that HSL is scum. HSL has suspected bookwyrm since Day 2 of being scum (I think). If HSL was mafia with either of them then there would be some extreme distancing going on early, and I don't get the vibe that distancing has been what's going on.

Question is, why didn't you see it before I pointed it out, and readily jumped to Bookwyrm627's tin foil hat.


*raises eyebrow*

Wouldn't gogtrial34987 playing like JoeSapphire be a too obvious deviation from his town-game?



Because keeping two confirmed town in the game is definitely so much better for the mafia team than only one, eh? Unless, of course, they all play like flubbucket, then you probably have a point.



[emphasis added]

Seriously? I very clearly stated in post #925 that I'm still not sold on the claim. And you're at "I get the impression"?

I don't have a main theory right now, nor an inclination; if the Lovers claim is false, it'd mean that the rest of you must be town, but that would mean that neither of you lot did a better job than me at being town-town, and neither of you put much effort into game solving/scum-hunting. And it is my reads on you (plural) that makes the Lovers claim possibly true, more than the pair's actions themselves.


Interesting. I could. I could also continue trying to solve the game, and lay out my reads before doing it, so that after my mislynch somebody might, just might, find something useful in them. Any particular reason you don't seem to really care about that?


Not trying to make anyone feel bad so you don't vote me (the mafia among you certainly doesn't feel bad), quite the contrary. I do believe that the town will be better off once the distraction the mafia has made of me for the last three Days is gone, and it's quite apparent that the only way to achieve this is for me to join the spirits of my fellow townies. The only downside is the numbers at this point in the game, and the fact that everybody's happy to go for the LHF with zero concern about how close to MyLo or LyLo we are is pretty damn alarming.



No need for it, but knock yourself out thinking it is.


Nah, just hoping that crow goes well with whatever else you're taking/eating to get well.


A note to all. I meant it when I said yesterday that I'm done going in circles regarding the argument of coaching and giving supplementscene outs to save him. Anyone still interested in making it is free to do so, but I'm not going to indulge any more back and forth; lack of a response is in no way admission of guilt, only a statement that it's gotten beyond tiresome and pointless, but you all are free to interpret it any way you like.


Off to address gogtrial34987's post.

Since I see trent and HSL posted recently: Is now a good time for a poem? Joe just popped in as well.

The mod excluded, the only one besides myself I see as being on right now is you. Even if JoeSapphire pops back in, there should be at least another witness.

And just to be completely clear here, the possibility mafia has Day-Chat or even 24/7 Chat is still a thing for me.

Joe is sitting primed in day-chat, and we have a poem all ready. But yeah, we should have at least two witnesses. Let's see if trent returns in the next few minutes; otherwise it'll probably be tomorrow after all.

It'll be tomorrow. We're tentatively looking at between 13:15 and 14:15 CEST (11:15-12:15 UTC). Hope more of you will be around then. If not, we might just have to do the same thing twice.

what are you talking about? there's no way I'll be able to be on line at that time!










nah just kiddin... we have a day chat ;)