In due time

Why in due time? Sharing reads and analysis is to town's advantage. Not doing so is to Scum's advantage.

Well roleclaiming in the first page is certainly against Town's interests. Mafia will now know not to try and kill a bulletproof player. Town will lose the chance to block a Mafia night kill with a bulletproof player. But could Poppy be claiming to have an important role early because she is in fact Mafia playing a LAMIST? I don't know, but it's the only wagon so far.....

I'd like to hear Poppy's explanation before potentially changing my vote as her analysis has been of a high quality otherwise. I still prefer Dessimu at this moment in time but I may switch wagon depending on how things unfold.

Have you seen something I haven't seen? If so what? Is this based on a prior game?

This entire post looks fishy. Role-fishy to be precise. Speculating about the setup on D1 doesn't yield anything for town ... so what are you trying to achieve with this? I'm starting to wonder, whether my RVS vote is exactly in the right place. Since the only ones who can gain something from an early role-discussion are scum. (i.e. a feeling for who might be a PR). ... If you disagree and see a benefit for town in the discussion you tried to trigger, then please enlighten us.

@trent: no, I'm not discounting the power of a confirmed towny. But it heavily depends on who the confirmed towny is and how actively he uses that 'being confirmed'. We'll have to see whether flubb can fill your shoes. :-)

@flubb: that was a call to you to drop your usual inscrutability. There is no point in this game for you to be unreadable. Everyone knows what you are anyhow.

@mod: could you please hunt Hunter and chase him into the game? He's still missing.

It most surely is! It is the traditional Arstotzkan peasant invocation for truth and honesty, as first practised by our glorious leader Mik Olotev some seventy years hence. Are you implying that you did not pay the proper attention when this subject was covered in school, and might need to be reported for possible placement in a re-education camp?

I doubted I'd have, when I posted, as it was the very weakest of pushes, for what almost certainly was nothing at all (but the only ever so slightly significant interaction at the time - so at least an attempt to get some balls rolling), and Poppy's response sounded pretty pure - but scanning ahead to scene's reply, well, that does seem to be dodging a bit, doesn't it? Am having guests over in a minute, so no time to pursue just now, but I'll probably return to it later today if no one beats me to it.
(And, FWIW, I distinctly recall ZFR deliberately overemphasizing his newbie status in a recent couple of games, so it wouldn't surprise me that much if scene also went that route.)

I am still reading into situation.

To provide a framework for scumhunting. It's easy to get boxed in by assumptions like "13 players means 3 scum", like was seen in #53.

I can't help but think that you deliberately misread my post.

Well that's a death sentence if I ever heard one. :P

I think you're reading too much into a flippant response to a lazy accusation.

It's based on my general evaluation of his playstyle from other games, yes, but I'm not going to dig up previous games for examples - that's not my style.

Well, yes, in a sense it is role-fishy, since working out how many scum we might expect yields information about their potential roles. If you've a problem with that, so be it - I don't think it harms the Town to be aware of the potential dangers, and since it's a semi-open setup it's not blind speculation the way it would be for a closed setup. I've stated that I don't think extensive setup discussions benefit the Town, so I purposefully limited myself to the question of how many scum there are. Analysing players' posts should always be the main focus of play, and I don't want to distract from that too much.

Well that's certainly helpful.

His uncle who is a commanding officer. He made him come. A couple of times.

This rings a disturbing bell. It reminds me of something or someone but I can't my finger on it...

Wait!!!


Nice!

Framework that is based on speculating about randomized setup and Town power roles on D1? Seems legit.

Well it's early days but quite a few players aren't doing any analysis

I'm not sure it's necessarily fishy but I'm not sure analysing it helps towns chances either. We simply can't know Scums numbers until at end game or near end game. If the game is over after 2 or 3 Scum are killed or it's still ongoing after killing 3 Scum, yes only then do we know that there are 4 Scum. Presumably if there are more Scum it's balanced by giving us more roles anyway.

So in that sense I get that you're trying to insinuate thar Poppy maybe distracting Town in this post. And in Posts 56 and 57 @Bookwyrm and @dedoporno seem to be reading that too. I'm not sure that's the case but I do want her to explain what she hopes to find with this and the 'I'm glad I wasn't the only one who noticed that'

I've actually only played Mafia once and there was no early reveal in that game. The early reveal is quite important to our chances. Ie is it true? I think we have to play as if it is true. After thinking about it I realise ZFR can't reveal a player each round because Town would win by default with an overweighted level of information.

My thinking was though that the twists seemingly happen in all games. So I thought the twist could be players identities are randomly revealed instead of a detective revealing them? I assumed ZFR could make that 'twist' if he so decided. But that would break the game imo.

The other similar game I played was Secret Mafia btw with different rule sets. I have been interested in the dynamic of playing both games in person for a while now.

I do expect to perform better this game as I was a largely responsible for town losing last game. Reading and re-reading the thread while asking plenty of questions of players motives without being too certain in the conclusions I draw seems the best strategy. But surely you'd agree that there is no way for us to know how many Scum are playing or what roles could be apparent?

And you're saying Hypersomniac is posting in a similar manner to how he posted as mafia in the past? Is it the early aggression towards you or the irrelevant reason for voting?

Sorry to hear about your friend anyway and any absense will be completely understandable.

1. You don't want to distract? So why did you?
2. Analyzing posts is exactly what this is about. Analyzing your post, to be precise.
3. You even agree yourself that your post was somewhat role-fishy. But OF COURSE you are only fishing for scum roles. Yea, right. Working out how many scum there are and especially whether there is an SK is just not possible before we see the number of night-kills. These things can be discussed after we have more input information. Speculating about potential roles now can only benefit scum.
4. Granted, it probably won't benefit scum since no town-PR will be stupid enough to reveal themselves just for narrowing down the possible scenarios. So the most likely explanation for your post is the one that Bookwyrm assumed:
...which is a somewhat scummy motivation again. So my vote stays where it is and is now not RVS anymore.

Based around probabilistic averages. It's vulnerable to edge cases, but it's a decent starting point, especially since in all cases three is the most likely, but four remains possible. As I said, we shouldn't discount the possibility of four scum, but we do know that the maximum number of Mafiosos we can expect is three.

HSL's scum game is so strong that I favour a high standard to read him as Town, and even then I'd remain suspect. If he's not dead by day 3 or 4, lynch him. If he is Town, he's far too much of a threat to the Mafia to let him see the endgame.

No, I don't agree that there's no way to know. We have a definite range, 2-4. Inside of that range, we cannot be sure, but we know that 2 is unlikely. It's much too early to know what roles we could expect from them, and without information from the Night phase that falls squarely into the realm of speculation, but we can piece it together as the game progresses.

Overall, I think this discussion has helped to shift us out of pure RVS, which I consider helpful to Town. I've drawn some votes from making myself the centre of attention, but that's to be expected.

I'm not sure what you mean by HSL's "aggression" towards me, since he's barely posted so far and has had almost no interaction with me. What little he has posted has been suitably critical with an edge of dry humour. I think this early vote from HSL is atypical of his play, but I think it will level out into a more usual pattern. It is something to keep an eye on, though.


Also, thanks. :)

Right, that settles it. I'd kept silent to see where you went with this, but this pattern of picking a player for RVS and then conveniently building that into real suspicion is your scum play, Lift. As such,

Vote Lifthrasil

I hope nobody mistakes this for an OMGUS vote - as noted, I've been watching Lift to see what he does. I keep notes on reads, and the second post I quoted is marked in my notes as "giant red flag".

Just once? There is never a reason to have role/setup discussion on Day 1, only people that will gain an advantage is scum or it will break the game.



Ok you say don't think extensive setup discussions benefit town, so why even start a discussion about the setup? It will lead to us talking about potential roles scum have and that inevitably leads to roles town might have to counter act such roles, how does this give town an advantage on Day 1? I loathe PM talk or role discussion, it breaks games and only really benefits scum in my opinion.

Vote PoppyAppletree

So you are saying we should lynch HSL if he is still alive after day 2 because there's no way scum would leave him alive so he can only be scum if he is still alive??

This sounds like a setup for a lynch come day 3 or 4.


I've gone back over Lift's posts and from what I can see he's behaving like town Lift, and I agree with what he is saying.

Sorry about the very late first post, my desktop UPS failed and I haven't been on GOG for more than couple of days. Let me read through whatever has happened. Thanks for being patient with me everyone!

Just to confirm, but your second paragraph about the setup detail was in no way related to the first paragraph where you're responding to dedo respondong to HSL, correct? Would it be fair to characterize it as completely out of the blue? Or did I overlook someone making an oblique reference that prompted you to start down that path?

Thank you for your thoughts on Dessimu and Joe. What investigative results do you think Joe was hoping to get with his vote on you? I personally wouldn't really describe his behaviour as "investigating thoroughly". Do you think he's just faking it? Or what are you referring to?
Also, I note that you didn't answer my question about Poppy, despite most of your early interaction being with her. A bit later on in your post, you do however describe her as "very helpful and friendly", though. Did you at that point believe this to be genuine? Has your impression of her evolved since then?

Just to confirm, you have read and understood the C9++ setup document, right?

I'm interested in what you focus on in reading, so could you give me two examples of analysis that she's done which stand out to you as high quality?

Presuming to speak for dedo and Poppy, since this is something that you genuinely wouldn't know: HSL's title is "The Reluctant Voter", and that's his reputation as well, with him frequently not voting until right before (or 1 minute after) deadline. So to come out swinging in his very first post with an actual vote is pretty remarkable.

Given your early focus here: What are your thoughts on how Poppy's wagon is developing? It seems perhaps somewhat too... easy to me?

@Poppy: Have you ever been scum before? If so, any plays you can link us to?