You're asking quite a bit.

I have one post on this page already!

Holy crap. So apparently hammer time is about 4 am.

We have a lynch and it is not even deadline?
What is this sorcery?
I wonder why trent didn't even bother to claim when he was close.

Not that it really matters right now but during last night I shifted my preferred lynch to Bookwyrm over HSL but only slightly.
Trent's could work with any of them and his town flip won't make neither more towny I think.

I know I am expected to address some things but this lynch caught me off-guard and I've got to work a bit right now.

By now, it's almost become a tradition. You spend the day arguing, then fighting. This time, it's trentonlf who ends up dead.

You go to his tent to look through his things. You find some standard-issue Arstotzkan equipment but not a single personal item. Searching further, you finally find a small bag, neatly buried just outside his tent, with a Kolechian ID, some documents, a handgun and a good supply of sleeping pills. The documents identify him as a colonel of the Kolechian Army Intelligence.

trentonlf is dead. He was Messof Anegovych (Mafia Roleblocker).

You bury him. In the evening you have dinner in the mess hall then you retire to your tents for the night.

D4 has ended. Please stop posting now.

N4 will last 48 hours.

In practice it might last longer, I'm flying tomorrow then will be trying to get a sim card for internet access on Thursday.

Final vote count:

trent - 5: gogtrial, Joe, Bookwyrm, HSL, flub
HSL - 2: SPF, Vitek
Bookwyrm -1: trent

8 players. Takes 5 to lynch.

OK, whose turn is it to post after deadline today??? Just do so already so I can chastise you and go for lunch!

I forgot to mention I like ice cream.

Gosh, I hope there wasn't a EoD post in the meantime.

Bad Vitek!

As you assemble in the morning you find out flubbucket is missing. You go to his tent and find him inside, shot in his sleeping bag. A search of his tent confirms what you already knew - he was a good citizen and all of Arstotzka will mourn his death.

flubbucket is dead. He was a Filipe Hasse (Town Innocent Child).

You bury him with full military honours, then each of you delivers a touching eulogy. His will states that his money should be used to set up the Flub Fund for Unfortunate Lottery Winners when you get back to Arstotzka.

D5 has started. You may post here now.

6 players. It takes 4 to lynch.

Flub?

That not what I would expect.
Joe and trial are all but confirmed so why would there be any reason to keep them alive?

Indeed, I'm pretty surprised too. My first thoughts are that the remaining scum suspects another doc and expected one of the brothers to be predicted. Rather than take the 50/50 chance, they decided to go for a surer kill.

The more cynical possibility that just crossed my mind is that one of the brothers is mafia? They could be tragic brothers - the wiki says that sometimes they have a factional win condition of their own as well as the separate win conditions of their respective factions.

With trent's flip it's pretty safe to say that both brothers can't be mafia, unless the twist is "Surprise, 4 mafia!".

I mean... that is what you would say if you had a joint win condition. :P

Huh.

Thoughts: Last night there was a lone mafia, 7 players. (I'm discounting the 4 mafia-scenario for now; not completely ruling it out yet, though, because we'd be at mylo if that's the setup. Scary: We'd have been at mylo yesterday, too!)

flub (conf town)
me+Joe (next thing to conf town)
SPF (generally read as non-mafia; I think still halfheartedly left in the mix by trent (mafia) - does that make him more or less non-mafia? (TODO: reread where trent was at at that point))
Vitek (generally seen as the unlikely possibility, though HSL originally leaned mafia on him)
HSL (strongly suspected by Bookwyrm, mafia-lean by Vitek; town-lean by me)
Bookwyrm (strongly suspected by HSL, slightly more of a mafia-lean by Vitek)

Lone mafia has a narrow path to victory; needs two mislynches to win. Flub, and me+Joe are (probably) mislynch-proof. So that means lone mafia's NKs for last night and this coming night are set.
Does it matter in which order they happen?
Ultimately, no. But flub has only one vote, and we have two. You'd think (I certainly thought!) that we'd be up first.
Possibility: fear of a doc - How realistic is this? Who proposed mass-claim yesterday? (TODO: check) Ooh, the lone scum doesn't have a roleblocker anymore!
Possibility: tragic brothers with factional win condition - That'd mean we'd be anti-town. Hard to prove a negative for us.
Possibility: try to get us mislynched and widen the field (by pushing the above narrative?) - risky; I'm not seeing it. Lone mafia would have pointed a big fat finger at themselves through said pushing. Then again, PoE otherwise gives us a very high chance of winning, so maybe risky is the way to go for mafia here?
Possibility: two votes to help lone mafia with the mislynch - That didn't work out too well for them yesterday. Would lone mafia try it again? (That'd make me suspect HSL or Vitek. Or would Bookwyrm gamble on me thinking like that? Wheee! WIFOM!)

We're also off-parity. We need 4/6 votes to lynch, with me+Joe gone it'd be 3/5. Does that work for, or against lone mafia? (How about in the 2 out of 4 mafia left scenario?)

Better chances of getting the votes for the mislynch. I'm a bit surprised that you can't think of a reason.

And seeing what SirPrimalform posted, perhaps an attempt to introduce some new doubt about the Siblings, since whatever WIFOM there was left around their claim, it evaporated with trentonlf's mafia flip. But that's a superficial read into it.



I could see that work if we were in the 6T scenario, but we're definitely in a scenario with three mafiosi, which means that the mafia-aligned Sibling had two ways (I can think of) to play his: either reveal his extra role to his mafia-buddies from the beginning while playing them (or both sides, to keep his options open?), or keep it secret, but once the claim was out he'd have been confronted by his teammate, hence would have managed to convince him that he's playing his Town-Sibling while either playing his teammate or both, until it becomes clear where victory's to be had. I could see this quite easily if Bookwyrm627 was the mafia-aligned Sibling, but with the Siblings being gogtrial34987+JoeSapphire? Perhaps I'm underestimating them both, but I don't see it. Do you? Does anyone else?


That'd be a pretty nasty surprise, so I sure hope not.

*then remembers game #53*

*** *** ***
So, I've taken some time and did the following ISOs to cross-check things, and make sure I'm not missing/overlooking something regarding the mafia-pair:

1. trentonlf+SirPrimalform
2. trentonlf+Vitek
3. trentonlf+Bookwyrm627

1. trentonlf+SirPrimalform
There's nothing there hinting at the latter being the former's buddy, mostly because of SirPrimalform's play. The only thing that could be seen as incriminating is post #593 where he tells Bookwyrm627 that he hasn't yet pressed either of trentonlf or Vitek, and never follows through with it, but based on the rest of his play - meh.

2. trentonlf+Vitek
I just don't see it. gogtrial34987 was on the spot here - there's a lot of buddying up on trentonlf's side (posts #164, #240, #560, #592 (and shading mchack), #656, #884, #888, #940), yet nothing from Vitek on either side of the spectrum (buddying or distancing).

3. trentonlf+Bookwyrm627
When ISO-ing them together, what I see is not just superficial interactions (as gogtrial34987 said), I see quite some distancing from both of them, and early on:
- trentonlf's posts: #240, #543, $587, #711, #797, #881, #915, and to a lesser degree: #243, #504, #892, #894.
- Bookwyrm627's posts: #216, #589, #860, #891 (after #562), and to a lesser degree: #241, #244, #510, #893, #895.

There's also something in his post #891 that I didn't pay enough attention to it on first parse. He says [emphasis added]:

Which makes no sense as a counter-balance, as the Visitor can't be even verified in this setup with no other informative roles besides the Cop, plus has no actual power.

Wasn't there someone who said something about trying to look busy and useful? Oh wait, it was Bookwyrm627, wasn't it?

One more thing that stood out when going over the wagons, is that Bookwyrm627 landed with his vote on mchack (post #589) right behind his scum-buddy trentonlf on that wagon. Just like he landed with his vote on Vitek (post #216) right behind his other scum-buddy, supplementscene. Pretty nifty way to push the narrative that scum!Bookwyrm627 would never vote right behind his scum-buddies, as most players are careful to avoid such things when they roll mafia.

So yeah, along with everything else I already said, I'm pretty confident Bookwyrm627's mafia.

Now, why flubbucket and not the Siblings. Here's my take on it after thinking about it:

flubbucket demonstrated the whole game long that he's doing his own thing, and perhaps scum!Bookwyrm627 thought he'd be harder to sway into voting someone he didn't want/feel like doing so anyway.
Additionally, perhaps Vitek's comment on preferring him over me, even if only slightly, tipped the scale in favour of leaving the Siblings alive and going for flubbucket, whose death doesn't reveal any new info, while his voting reveals very little.

With 6 players alive, it may take one more vote to lynch, but the current composition of players makes it easier to get the three town votes needed for the mislynch.

Let's look at who all is still in the game:

-- JoeSapphire: had me as least suspect Yesterday after SirPrimalform, but he'd follow gogtrial34987, and has already started doubting his own read.
-- gogtrial34987: said that if trentonlf flips mafia, he's leaning towards me as his buddy.
-- SirPrimalform: I'll be surprised if he even glances at anyone else.
-- Vitek: will mull over it for a good while, as usually, but he voted me yesterday, so it's likely he'll do so again in spite having said he slightly favours Bookwyrm627 over me.
-- HypersomniacLive - I obviously won't vote myself; I'm the only certain vote on Bookwyrm627 while also the easy mislynch.
-- Bookwyrm627 - will go for me, leaving Vitek for the D6 mislynch; remember his order was me/trentonlf, Vitek.

So, Bookwyrm627 is counting on SirPrimalform's vote, and needs another two for the mislynch. I expect him to play for gogtrial34987 (instead of against me), as swaying him quite likely secures two votes. And I can't help but think that the reference and talk about the Smurfia game may well have something to do with both why the Siblings are alive, and how he's going to play it.

*** *** ***

Seriously? You hacked and stitched that post of gogtrial34987 - the part in brackets wasn't even part of his post - and you're trying to pass that as a "Ah, my mistake", and expect it to fly?

As for the rest, what gogtrial34987 said.



You sure had us fooled till Yesterday; good job.



Still wondering?


In post #1007 you said you liked his D4 post (I assume that was meant to be "posts"). What changed?


He didn't flip town, but could you elaborate on why you were thinking this?