Heh.

Oh, sorry. :-P

I'm tryna be concise. All of my emotions were contained in that 'heh'. You've just gotta figure 'em out.

As requesed I'll try to detail a bit more why I am distrustful of Hijack and JMich in particular later - just got home and still busy.

Where I came to it was in posts 161 and 165. 179 was hours later. In those earlier (pretty late in my timezone actually) posts I pretty much was typing while thinking it through. If you all see specific questions you want to make regarding my earlier posts it will help me save us all some time I guess. I can be verbose. (<- understatement of the game right here)

For now I'll say - Hijack has regained his cool head. JMich has never lost it and is being smartly evasive. They are vets with specific styles - no surprise so far. But the reactions to the accusation have in themselves been revealing IMO. Could be confirmation bias though.

Then, I have said around three? times I need help thinking through the logic and making sure I'm not leaving holes behind. Hijack in particular is trying to paint me as being surer than I actually am. His attempt at trying to get me to publically bless the team proposal where he puts both my top suspects in together with me is even more hilarious in that context.

Lastly, IMO there is too much talk happening. Not in itself, but because the votes are what actually matters and so much discussion ends up being masturbatory. Hijack is stalling like hell, but push comes to shove we need the votes. If I am right the spies got very unlucky. They'll do better next time and are learning fast I'm sure.

bandname, fail

similar fails:

Metallina
Pearl Preserves
Alice in Ribbons
Cradle of Flowers

No, I was working for half a day with sticks and with roses. And occasionally reading here. Told myself "sticks and roses" a few times, remembered band names, gave me giggles.

Right.

Oh really? You could have fooled me with your mental suggestions.

Not everyone has given their 2 cents regarding picks.

To be clear about your intentions: are you waiting for every player to give their opinion on what team to form, before making up your mind? If so, who exactly are you waiting for? Poke them! Poke them hard!

We really have nothing else concrete to go on now. And I am like third or fourth, or whatever other person in line to say so.

You all know the story about the super duper Go Master that was convinced to play blind against two lower level opponents at same time?

Against a guy one level lower he was playing well and could see the board in his mind. Against a guy two levels down he started making mistakes, picking pieces that weren't his and stuff.

He explained it was because the other guy's plays made sense, but this other's one were random nonsense.

Moral of the story being: I'm trying to piss off Hijack again :P


Anyway, as JMich so kindly explained, if we look at Mission one passing as not being a bluff by anyone, then Hijack's team proposal sucks.

So either Hijack sucks, or he's doing something else than he said he was doing. I'm open to being convinced he sucks, but I'd rather believe he's doing something else, and the obvious option being - he's a spy.

Him being a spy creates a paradox. If he bluffed Mission 1 to gain cred, he should be trying to ride it out rather than sitting out. Unlikely as it is, this leads me to suspect he was unlucky enough to have a colleague with him on the mission.

That implicates JMich or Lift. Since spies are already one Mission down, playing it deep and going for a full resistance team I don't find likely. And then I rather suspect he went with keeping his colleague from the previous mission (JMich) rather than bringing in the 3rd colleague from outside (Ix, Cristi or Drealmer).

JMich approving so fast helped solidify this. Why does he trust 3 new people, when he didn't trust one new person (Agent). Too long odds. Even if he distrusts Agent that much, why does he trust 3 new people, over Hijack and Lift which already passed a mission with him?

And Hijack's reactions?

Any questions? Let me remind you this is a working theory only. I can probaby dig further circunstancial evidence for my theory, but I'm afraid of confirmation bias - I rather want to see more votes.


So is Hijack / Hamlet making a proposal or not? To propose or not to propose, that is the question.

I believe cristi is yet to give her input, and Ixam hasn't said much about my picks either.

I'd sub out Drealmr or cristi for someone from the first mission. Maybe Lifthrasil. I... don't know if I'd vote no for your proposed list though. Not really sure actually.

Man, you're either blind, or in a ditch. Proposals have been made. You either give feedback, or wait patiently in your spot. No solid suggestions for a team have come from you either. Which players are you avoiding to spotlight, that is the question.

I even already begged you about making a certain team your official proposal...
And you should even be able to guess how I'll vote on said team. ;)


'Night all

Yeah, I already guessed. That's why I'm saying nothing worth while came from you. You'd just mess around like you did so far with votes and words.

Sorry all, my head is elsewhere. If it doesn't get better, I'll ask for a sub.

@Brases - you've explained a bit more about your Hijack/JMich theory, some thoughts/questions:
- it does concern me how quickly JMich voted

- HijacK is the type of player who goes by reads. Most of us are learning what it means to play this game, we're not automatically aware of the intricacies. Did you have it all straight the first time you played? Regardless of alignment, I do not see HijacK's proposal as some superstar play, if anything I read his initial proposal as an attempt to take other player's concerns into consideration.

-something that bothers me that I don't think you addressed. If both Hijack and JMich are spies that means that either:
1. Lift is a spy and chose both of this buddies
2. Lift is loyal and chose 2 spies at random

I have a hard time reconciling either one of these. #1 is a bold move, but hey, big risk/big reward. I still don't find it likely. Option #2 is possible but not very probable. Short of an early tell, the first captain's pick seems fairly random. If I did the math right, the probability of loyal Lift randomly choosing two spies is roughly 10% (3/8 * 2/7). It's possible but not very likely. If both HijacK and JMich are spies, which alignment is Lift?

@JMich - I don't understand why a single spy on a day one mission would obviously vote no. Can you explain?

@dess - If a team of suspected players was selected, wouldn't you expect the mission to fail? Is that the point - to eliminate them? And on the off chance clear them?

@Hijack - I am currently not suspicious of dreamler, I lean him loyal. However, if multiple people find him suspicious, his suggestion to remove himself may be wise. I find Ixam very hard to read, can't give you anything there. Waffling on JMich. I do think you should include yourself on the team.

I am suspicious of agent - seems to be trying too hard to paint drealmer as spy, still not sure on Lift, a bit leery of Brases. Don't necessarily think that is the spy team, just my pings.

One thing I've learned over my time here is that my early reads are not all that stellar. If you have a strong gut read, go with it, but otherwise look for the advice that seems the most genuine and appear to have some consensus.