At first, things in Wilderberry Hollow seemed to unfold as they do everywhere else in the world. Some Evil lurking in the shadows, some operating right out in the open, but all trying to manipulate the Good around them trying to turn Good people against each other and causing strife among otherwise peaceful people. Evil's goal is to make Good think Good is actually Evil, making Good do Evil's bidding for them so they barely have to get their hands dirty or look bad themselves.
However, yesterday in Wilderberry Hollow, Good prevailed! Evil did not triumph! The Good should be proud! The Good should know it is better to have saved their own than to have falsely killed one. Yes, it would have been nice to root out Evil and kill one of them, but that is a hard thing for Good people to do when the odds are so against them.
Today, we woke up to find we have lost of one of our fellow Goods, bookwyrm, who was probably killed because he was so obviously Good that no one would have turned on him and any doing so would have immediately drawn suspicion. His loss perhaps weakens us in ways we cannot even see. Let us have a moment of silence in his honor...
Now, we must begin the task again of trying to root out the Evil. Where do we look? To me it seems obvious where to start, though Evil will probably try to convince you all otherwise. Evil was trying to get me killed, as I seemed to have been the easiest target. They were desperate to do it, for sure, but were they desperate enough to have put all of their Bad Eggs into one basket? Impossible to say, but I think what does make sense is that at least there was 1 bad egg in the basket, so:
Let us look at each individual egg that was in the basket, and try to discern whether they were True Evil, or simply misguided Good.
drealmer7 - 5 - babark, flubbucket, trentonlf, Dessimu, cristigale
I find this to be a MUCH MORE valuable wagon with 5 on it with a no-lynch than 7 with a lynch would have been. By a LOT! Why? Well first and foremost, D2 we're only down 1 townie, not 2, and that is HUGE. Of course, you have to believe I'm town to agree with that advantage, but the Truth remains the same, and pretty much everything I can say would be WIFOMed to hell and back, so, if there's anything anyone wants me to address, I'll gladly address it. Second, because it narrows (in my view) the pool of lynch possibilities for D2 down A LOT. Today I am simply looking at 5/11 players, that's pretty damn good odds opposed to normal. I urge the rest of townies to focus on these 5 as well.
On my wagon, the 4 possibilities, and their likelihoods (I'd like feedback and more thoughts around this, as I'm sure I probably didn't cover all angles and aspects, especially since I'm doing this kind of fast. I could spend the next 24 hours tweaking this to better logic and articulation, but I think it is best to get it out there so we can all start talking about it) :
0 Evil - This doesn't seem sensible to me. If 5 townies on at L-2, Evil lets me live because 1.) pity? not likely 2.) they wanted a no-lynch? why? down 2 townies D2 is much better than 1 for Evil, as much as trent vehemently states otherwise. Does anyone think this makes sense (assuming I'm town, of course.)
1 Evil - 2 not on my wagon, and at that point, why wouldn't those 2 just hop on with "just to secure a lynch" reasons and get excused for it, causing the lynch. Of course it isn't certain they'd get 100% excused for causing the lynch, but it's what I find most likely to have been their line of thinking if this is the case. They couldn't be sure of the flip, so maybe they didn't want to draw the suspicion if I did flip for forcing a weak wagon on a townie?
2 Evil - 1 not on my wagon. This is what I find most likely. Adding the 3rd but still failing a lynch just looks like desperate wagon pushing and would draw #6 into high suspicion and they can't be certain that the wagon would roll to lynch with a townie hammering (especially given the things in the state they were.) So they put 2 on trying to get me killed, but don't try so hard to draw the suspicion. They probably are amazed more townies didn't join in, and feeling a bit exposed still.
3 Evil - All on my wagon, and it still doesn't roll. If this is the case, serious kudos to town for not just following suit and going with the easy lynch. I find this less likely to be the case because of the exposure potential if I did reach lynch and show a flip which they couldn't be sure of (3/7 [42%] on a weak town wagon does not give them good odds come D2, of course, they would have preferred that to the 5/11 I'm looking at right now [45%.])
Okay, yes yes, I know that that's not all thought out as good as it could be, and it's possible Evil is going to try to make me look bad for posing theories that don't cover EVERY SINGLE POSSIBLE SCENARIO, but, that's where I'm at on a quickly-thought-out analysis and I think is THE place to start all of the discussion for D2. Sorry I'm not of yogsloth's skill-level to have it so intricately broken down and presented for you all, but I'm getting there!
Of course, I'm open to discussing other things if people want, but this is what makes most sense to me to focus on.