JMich: [...] A scum adalia knows who pushes for yogs (or any other one that has made a "slip"), and can see with what certainty someone else pushes for yogs. [...]
Wonder if that was what you were doing with adaliabooks Yesterday... No need to answer.
JMich: [...] All 3 of you? Doubtful. 2 of you 3? Likely.
Are you voting trentonlf as the more likely one?
RWarehall: HSL, are you intentionally mis-reading me? My point was, you clearly can make such reads. I was not looking for an answer. The answer for Bookwyrm and Christie was obvious. [...]
No, I thought you reallyy were asking, sorry.
RWarehall: [...]
I'll still say this, I think even in the case of Adalia being town (which I highly doubt), it's likely one scum stayed off the wagon. They wouldn't need to push so hard for a lynch. Heck, with these game mechanics, no-lynch helps them almost as much as a lynch if not more. Not only would it achieve vote paralysis (and discussing the same person the next day), give them a free NK, it would have auto-removed a almost certainly confirmed town spectre vote from the game.
[...]
I asked "how many scum" besides adaliabooks were on his wagon exactly because you think he's most likely Mafia.
So let's try this again - for you, adaliabooks was one; do you find it likely that one more was on his wagon and one stayed off, or that he was the only Mafia on it?
Regarding the "They wouldn't need to push so hard for a lynch", I'm actually
with cristigale on this one. And as Days go by and they don't hit the last remaining Power-Role, the more sense it makes to push for a Lynch than let a No-Lynch happen.
You seem to underestimate the main benefit that a Lynch has for Mafia, especially as the game progresses and they only need a specific death to win - it narrows down the pool of players, hence increases their odds to hit the Exorcist at Night sooner than later.
RWarehall: [...] I don't want to completely discount gut feeling, but it shouldn't be that hard to track down something more specific than "feelings". [...]
"Feelings" is not what drives my thinking. It's trying to put myself in their shoes, and see what actions make (more) sense from their POV.
RWarehall: [...] You want another obvious scum tell besides the post 575 "I'm so glad I rolled town" tell as one enters a game? [...]
If you find his "I'm so glad I rolled town" an obvious scum-tell when game after game after game he had been Mafia, what do you think of drealmer7 appealing to emotion and begging to not lynch him D1 because he's
a special case while advocating that the "living at all costs" attitude is anti-town?
RWarehall: [...] Try post 1123: Why is your "town" Adalia paying so much attention to who might be the Exorcist? I've been looking for scum and scum tells, not the last power role...and don't tell me it's to avoid hitting our power role, because Adalia sure didn't flinch much about throwing Yogs to the wolves. [...]
There's another side to that coin. Mafia has done damn well so far, and it's in their best interest to blend in, and appear to be scum-hunting while thinning the pool of players with the Lynches, and going after the Power-Roles at Night. I'd expect the Goons to be more subtle in the way they're trying to spot, even lure out, the Exorcist. Unless one thinks that the whole Mafia team is not intelligent and/or capable of laying out and following through an at least decent strategy, in spite being able to communicate with each other every Night.
As for that last bit, you can't know if Mafia had spotted yogsloth's
slip before adaliabooks drew attention to it, and if adaliabooks is Town, what in yogsloth's play would make him think that yogslot's more likely Town than Mafia?
RWarehall: [...] The question of why scum Adalia might mention the Yogs slip in public? Why wouldn't scum try to get us to lynch Yogs for them? They'd get an extra kill during the day and the night kill on top of it. Win win for them.
[...]
They're getting an extra day-kill the whole game now. I still think that the Mafia is more intelligent than to make one of their own the obvious lynch-target that way. I could be wrong, I'm still undecided on adaliabooks, but that's also what allows me to look things from both sides.
But since you asked to go into D4 with an open mind, I'm asking you to lead by example and revisit JMich. Go over the posts he made, others’ comments on them, the questions he was asked and how he responded and reacted. Then tell me what you think.