It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
I still don't think we've killed a scum yet and our chances of winning are slim to none.

Vote JMich
avatar
trentonlf: I still don't think we've killed a scum yet and our chances of winning are slim to none.

Vote JMich
And are you going to provide any analysis?
avatar
RWarehall: ...
well said! the reason I voted so quickly with not much to say is because I've been saying the same things the whole game pretty much. I still think it is most likely/makes the most sense that there were 2 Evil on my wagon (with how I broke it down with me 0,1,2,3 when D2 started.) Combine my wagon and hijack's wagon and who was off of adalia/who is pushing that adalia is Good, and I feel like trentonlf is a secure lock for being Evil. It's hard to figure the 3rd, but I think it might become clearer if we play right. As it looks now, I'm still strongeset on HSL as the 3rd, but let's take 1 day at a time.

Watch, he's going to tell me I'm wrong without actually saying why, how, or really anything else helpful to try and actually convince me or anyone else that I'm wrong about him, like he's been doing the whole game.

Go back and read and you can clearly see him pushing HijacK, me, and JMich (mostly laying the groundwork for a future JMich push), without much changing the whole game.

Unless someone makes a very strong case for someone else, my vote is not moving.
avatar
yogsloth: Why those two, Babark?
Been pretty sure about one of those two since day 1. Sometimes everyone else agrees with me, but most of the time it seems you all have a better option that you think is more worth it. And then like the last day, I give up and join the most likely wagon. Not happening this time.
vote trentonlf
I just did a re-read of Adalia's posts in Day 2. I'm just not seeing anything saying town to me. In fact, Adalia's opening post...post 575...read it. Read's as a scum tell.

I hope someone will try to point me to what I'm supposedly missing. I even see a day 2 post suggesting it's not so bad to mass claim and role reveals don't hurt as much as we think...post 625.

Day 2 is pretty much Adalia single-handedly pushing for HijacK's wagon on the sole basis of a changed meta and non-combativeness. Not even a consideration there might be any other reason for it. Makes me wonder if the scum team saw the change and saw it as an easy reason to lynch a suspected power role.

Was Adalia's plan for day 3 to get us to do his dirty work and lynch Yogs, another suspected power role? Why else reveal the PM slip?

Everything says to me Adalia was scum. So, assuming there are 2 more scum...

I find it hard to believe with the advantage they had, they would put all their eggs in one basket. So, I'm going to guess one of them stayed off the wagon and one probably got on.

As convenient as it would be for say HSL and Trent to be teammates helping Adalia not get lynched, they are smart enough players not to do that. One or the other, not both.

Obviously, that makes Trent high on my list of suspects, but I don't want to discount the possibility its HSL either. And there is still the matter of the last scum.
So, adalia told us that yog has slipped he had multiple PMs, thus either exorcist or scum, and yogs is night killed. But no, adalia wasn't scum *rolls eyes*.
Willing to lynch either HSL or trent today, because those were the two most vocal about not going on adalia's wagon, and attempting to push mine. Since trent already has a vote, vote trentonlf.

Also, could cristi be gone because she used a power? But if the spectres are gone after using a power, does that help us at all?
avatar
RWarehall: ..........<snip>............
Day 2 is pretty much Adalia single-handedly pushing for HijacK's wagon on the sole basis of a changed meta and non-combativeness.
..........<snip>............
I remember trentonlf was the one to "change his meta."

avatar
drealmer7: ..............<snip>...............
It was pretty damn obvious HijacK was the Herbalist, and I don't know how blind little horrible player me was the only one to pick up on it (except for the Evil who did.)

..............<snip>...............
@dreamler....you've been asked about this three times and you've yet to say anything. I realize you have little time to explain yourself to those of us way down here, but again:

HOW EXACTLY WAS IT OBVIOUS TO YOU THAT HIJACK WAS THE HERBALIST??


Vote: dreamler7
avatar
RWarehall: [...] How do we know with a fair bit of certainty Bookwyrm is town? Or Christie? [...]
Bookwyrm627 was the N1 Nk. Before anyone knew about the Spectre mechanic. What do you think could be the motive and benefit to Mafia to kill one of their own N1?

cristigale was confirmed by the mod. Or wasn't she for you? If so, why?


avatar
RWarehall: [...] So if Adalia were scum, we can be rather confident Yogs is town. [...]
And if adaliabooks was Town? What does that make yogsloth?


avatar
RWarehall: [...] since he was lynched, I'm guessing more people think he was scum. [...]
Assume he was Town, what does his wagon and lynch tell you?


avatar
RWarehall: [...] So, I'm going to guess one of them stayed off the wagon and one probably got on. [...]
[emphasis added[

Is that besides adaliabooks?



avatar
JMich: So, adalia told us that yog has slipped he had multiple PMs, thus either exorcist or scum, and yogs is night killed. [...]
Do you think Mafia are not competent enough to have noticed yogsloth's slip on their own?
If adaliabooks was Mafia and thought it likely for yogsloth to be the Exorcist, do you think it makes more sense for him to draw attention to yougsloth's slip than to keep it to himself and go for the NK? If so, why?

I had noticed the mention of multiple PMs by yogsloth, and thought it may be bait for Mafia but refrained from saying it; since we're still here, I'd say it was exactly that.


avatar
JMich: [...]
Willing to lynch either HSL or trent today, because those were the two most vocal about not going on adalia's wagon, and attempting to push mine. Since trent already has a vote, vote trentonlf.

[...]
Are you saying that adaliabooks, trentonlf and me are the Mafia team?



avatar
flubbucket: snip
Are you doing better?
avatar
HypersomniacLive: Are you doing better?
Still running a fever....body aches....whining.

I think I got the zika!!!
avatar
HypersomniacLive: If adaliabooks was Mafia and thought it likely for yogsloth to be the Exorcist, do you think it makes more sense for him to draw attention to yougsloth's slip than to keep it to himself and go for the NK? If so, why?
In case the exorcist read was wrong. A scum adalia knows who pushes for yogs (or any other one that has made a "slip"), and can see with what certainty someone else pushes for yogs. The one most likely convinced that yogs would have multiple PMs due to being scum would be the real exorcist. So even if yogs wasn't the exorcist, it could be possible to identify the real one.
Do add the necessary amount of WIFOM of course.

avatar
HypersomniacLive: Are you saying that adaliabooks, trentonlf and me are the Mafia team?
All 3 of you? Doubtful. 2 of you 3? Likely.
Suck it!
avatar
HijacK: Suck it!
first time anyone has taunted the masses with an Enrique Iglesias song. I dig.

Saying good morning and catching up on all this.

I think seems very odd for Yogs to have been NK. He with Babark and JMich seemed to be most likely scum to be and I believe another or two.

Hmmmmm.... but he can still vote. If Adaliabook wasn't scum, maybe they killed one of their own to completely mess with us townies. Weird. I don't know that it makes sense - because it wasn't clue who the team would have been but I wonder.

Agent - what happened to cristigale?

I agree with RW that this isn't RVS - even though we don't have information, stuff will come to light. That being said, it seemed very calculated. Like a possibly pre-planned "i'm a come out of the gate and spread sense and patience into everyone." Let's see how you and others respond:

vote: RWarehall
avatar
lotsofchickenwings: Agent - what happened to cristigale?
Can't answer that.
avatar
RWarehall: [...] How do we know with a fair bit of certainty Bookwyrm is town? Or Christie? [...]
avatar
HypersomniacLive: Bookwyrm627 was the N1 Nk. Before anyone knew about the Spectre mechanic. What do you think could be the motive and benefit to Mafia to kill one of their own N1?

cristigale was confirmed by the mod. Or wasn't she for you? If so, why?

avatar
RWarehall: [...] So if Adalia were scum, we can be rather confident Yogs is town. [...]
avatar
HypersomniacLive: And if adaliabooks was Town? What does that make yogsloth?
HSL, are you intentionally mis-reading me? My point was, you clearly can make such reads. I was not looking for an answer. The answer for Bookwyrm and Christie was obvious.

Now, if Adalia was town, Yogsloth is not clearly anything. He could very well be scum (with possibly all 3 alive), sacrificing himself to be a free vote and see what all the wonderful powers can be with all the hints and suggestions from Bookwyrm and Christie. I almost think B & C were trying to lure scum to do this. The way the PM slip came out, he'd look a bit scummy anyway if he weren't NK'd.

Or he could be town and got caught up in it. I don't find his alignment clear in that situation.

I'll still say this, I think even in the case of Adalia being town (which I highly doubt), it's likely one scum stayed off the wagon. They wouldn't need to push so hard for a lynch. Heck, with these game mechanics, no-lynch helps them almost as much as a lynch if not more. Not only would it achieve vote paralysis (and discussing the same person the next day), give them a free NK, it would have auto-removed a almost certainly confirmed town spectre vote from the game.

And once again HSL, why should we think Adalia is town? Let's cut through the crap of "matching a meta, so he's town". Or how "townly" you think Dessimu's posts came off to you (with no specifics whatsoever). Point me to these posts of either Dessimu or Adalia that you think would only be made by town. I don't want to completely discount gut feeling, but it shouldn't be that hard to track down something more specific than "feelings".

You want another obvious scum tell besides the post 575 "I'm so glad I rolled town" tell as one enters a game? Try post 1123: Why is your "town" Adalia paying so much attention to who might be the Exorcist? I've been looking for scum and scum tells, not the last power role...and don't tell me it's to avoid hitting our power role, because Adalia sure didn't flinch much about throwing Yogs to the wolves.

The question of why scum Adalia might mention the Yogs slip in public? Why wouldn't scum try to get us to lynch Yogs for them? They'd get an extra kill during the day and the night kill on top of it. Win win for them.

@chickenwings Yes, I had been looking over the game during night time. Weren't you? We don't get flips, and just one extra person would be dead. One clearly can analyze the ramifications and get an early start figuring out the next step (i.e. who are Adalia's scum buddies). Besides, what else was there to do waiting for daybreak?
avatar
JMich: [...] A scum adalia knows who pushes for yogs (or any other one that has made a "slip"), and can see with what certainty someone else pushes for yogs. [...]
Wonder if that was what you were doing with adaliabooks Yesterday... No need to answer.


avatar
JMich: [...] All 3 of you? Doubtful. 2 of you 3? Likely.
Are you voting trentonlf as the more likely one?



avatar
RWarehall: HSL, are you intentionally mis-reading me? My point was, you clearly can make such reads. I was not looking for an answer. The answer for Bookwyrm and Christie was obvious. [...]
No, I thought you reallyy were asking, sorry.


avatar
RWarehall: [...]

I'll still say this, I think even in the case of Adalia being town (which I highly doubt), it's likely one scum stayed off the wagon. They wouldn't need to push so hard for a lynch. Heck, with these game mechanics, no-lynch helps them almost as much as a lynch if not more. Not only would it achieve vote paralysis (and discussing the same person the next day), give them a free NK, it would have auto-removed a almost certainly confirmed town spectre vote from the game.

[...]
I asked "how many scum" besides adaliabooks were on his wagon exactly because you think he's most likely Mafia.
So let's try this again - for you, adaliabooks was one; do you find it likely that one more was on his wagon and one stayed off, or that he was the only Mafia on it?

Regarding the "They wouldn't need to push so hard for a lynch", I'm actually with cristigale on this one. And as Days go by and they don't hit the last remaining Power-Role, the more sense it makes to push for a Lynch than let a No-Lynch happen.
You seem to underestimate the main benefit that a Lynch has for Mafia, especially as the game progresses and they only need a specific death to win - it narrows down the pool of players, hence increases their odds to hit the Exorcist at Night sooner than later.


avatar
RWarehall: [...] I don't want to completely discount gut feeling, but it shouldn't be that hard to track down something more specific than "feelings". [...]
"Feelings" is not what drives my thinking. It's trying to put myself in their shoes, and see what actions make (more) sense from their POV.


avatar
RWarehall: [...] You want another obvious scum tell besides the post 575 "I'm so glad I rolled town" tell as one enters a game? [...]
If you find his "I'm so glad I rolled town" an obvious scum-tell when game after game after game he had been Mafia, what do you think of drealmer7 appealing to emotion and begging to not lynch him D1 because he's a special case while advocating that the "living at all costs" attitude is anti-town?


avatar
RWarehall: [...] Try post 1123: Why is your "town" Adalia paying so much attention to who might be the Exorcist? I've been looking for scum and scum tells, not the last power role...and don't tell me it's to avoid hitting our power role, because Adalia sure didn't flinch much about throwing Yogs to the wolves. [...]
There's another side to that coin. Mafia has done damn well so far, and it's in their best interest to blend in, and appear to be scum-hunting while thinning the pool of players with the Lynches, and going after the Power-Roles at Night. I'd expect the Goons to be more subtle in the way they're trying to spot, even lure out, the Exorcist. Unless one thinks that the whole Mafia team is not intelligent and/or capable of laying out and following through an at least decent strategy, in spite being able to communicate with each other every Night.

As for that last bit, you can't know if Mafia had spotted yogsloth's slip before adaliabooks drew attention to it, and if adaliabooks is Town, what in yogsloth's play would make him think that yogslot's more likely Town than Mafia?


avatar
RWarehall: [...] The question of why scum Adalia might mention the Yogs slip in public? Why wouldn't scum try to get us to lynch Yogs for them? They'd get an extra kill during the day and the night kill on top of it. Win win for them.

[...]
They're getting an extra day-kill the whole game now. I still think that the Mafia is more intelligent than to make one of their own the obvious lynch-target that way. I could be wrong, I'm still undecided on adaliabooks, but that's also what allows me to look things from both sides.

But since you asked to go into D4 with an open mind, I'm asking you to lead by example and revisit JMich. Go over the posts he made, others’ comments on them, the questions he was asked and how he responded and reacted. Then tell me what you think.