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General discussionForum Mafia #63 Supernatural(876 posts)(876 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted December 07, 2019
I went to bed and then I realized that we are fewer people than I thought were so there is something that I could gain as scum (an alibi basically).

There is a sort of a breadcrumb I did (I didn't really see as such back then) - I specifically made note of Pooka not sharing anything out of the ordinary so when I come out later, if he said I could argue about him not reporting getting jailed and if RW said he didn't have another action and was vanilla he would have been a lair.

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dedoporno: Anyway, I have a sort of a plan but before anything else I'm interested to hear if RW or Lift have anything interesting to share from the past night. Pooka didn't share anything in his post, so I assume he doesn't have anything to share.
That was the "plan" - to compare RW's claim against Pooka's if there was a discrepancy about it.
Posted December 07, 2019
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dedoporno: When I said we should do full claims I meant everyone including myself. When I claimed first I wasn't entirely truthful (Lift, don't hate me!). I wasn't 1-shot but 2-shot Town Jailkeeper
I don't hate you. But you know my stance on lying as Town. I don't like it and usually it's a dead giveaway of Scum. However, in this case scum-dedo would gain nothing by revealing that he lied. On the contrary. dedo just gave up his perfect Town-rating which he was handed by everyone. Scum-dedo wouldn't gain anything from the additional information that Town gets by this reveal. And I actually do see the reason why Town-dedo would pretend to be de-clawed, PR-wise. He reduced the danger of being killed somewhat. ... Now, usually when someone does something 'which he would never do as scum' I assume that that might be WIFOM and he's trying to get Town-cred by doing something that doesn't make sense as Scum. But in this case dedo didn't need to get even more Town-cred. He was Town-rated by everyone anyhow. So, while having lied violates the 'Town don't lie' tenet and introduces a small element of doubt, I still think that dedo is probably Town.

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dedoporno: - The kill still happened so I know Pooka can't be a lone Kitsune just like how RW can't be. Either of them can still be in a team with anyone.
But probably not together. If RW is scum, he had to assume he would be blocked again. We had the connection 'RW jailed = no kill'. So it was likely that he would be blocked again, to test whether that happens again. So probably, if we have two scum and RW is one of them, his partner did the kill last Night. Which was one of the reasons why I ultimately decided on blocking Pooka. It was unlikely that RW would try to perform the kill if he was a part of a scum-Team. And he couldn't be lone-scum. ... Of course, this is WIFOM. A scum team might have guessed that RW would not be blocked for exactly the reason I just described and still sent RW. But still, I see it as likely that his hypothetical partner would have been the one to do the kill - and you just demonstrated that Pooka wasn't the killer last Night.

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PookaMustard: Huh. So I've been jailed AND roleblocked but have not gotten any results about it. Do I only get those if I was doing an action or was a PR?
No. You haven't been roleblocked. My action failed. ... But now that I think of it, perhaps by 'Complex'-modifier theory was wrong and my blocking failed because you were untargetable due to being jailed. That still doesn't explain though, why the blocking of Joe failed in the previous Night. So I still like my 'Complex' theory.
About you not noticing anything, that is actually standard, I think. As discussed Yesterday, when I run games only people who attempt actions at Night notice that they are blocked. I believe that is the normal way. We speculated if trent might handle this differently, but now we know that he doesn't.

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PookaMustard: Interestingly enough, both dedo and Lift acted on RFG N1, and both also acted on me N3. I don't know how to feel about the two blocking roles getting the same ideas on the same nights.
Yep. It's a bit spooky how similar dedo and I think. But we noticed that several times already. It's almost as if we were a reverse Hydra. :-)

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PookaMustard: If we take all these claims at face value, then Joe carried out the kill (from my own perspective), but I have my reservations. I feel that one of the three PRs have done a clever job at hiding their scummy intentions and successfully directed the mechanical suspicion toward me or Joe.

I'm beginning to suspect dedo, actually. He only claimed he jailed me after Lift claimed he blocked me, seeing that I got nothing to say about who visited me last Night. In addition to that, unlike RW who technically didn't lie about his full claim, dedo actually did lie about his role.
THAT, however, is a very interesting observation. So scum-dedo would have had something to gain after all: the appearance that he was somewhere else at Night and couldn't have been the one who killed agent! Huh, I didn't think of that. Maybe you are on to something. Maybe the 'lying=scum' equation is still true! I have to think about this a bit when I'm awake again. (right now, it's 2:20 in the morning over here)


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PookaMustard: Now whether dedo is scummy or not, I have the feeling we're dealing with a lone scum.
This, however, sounds far too convenient. Especially if we do believe dedo. After it has been revealed that you can't be a lone scum, you suddenly have the feeling that we indeed have a lone scum. Which, as has been shown, can't be you! Very convenient! ... Yesterday I was criticized for speculating too much about the lone scum theory. I still like it for balancing reasons and wishful thinking, as you say, but the way how you bring it up right when you profit from it, looks off.


Well, I'll go to bed. @RW and Joe: let us know what you think about the 'dedo lied' issue and the 'dedo vs. Pooka' issue that seems to emerge.
Posted December 07, 2019
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Lifthrasil: That still doesn't explain though, why the blocking of Joe failed in the previous Night.
He doesn't have a role so can't be blocked?
Posted December 07, 2019
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Lifthrasil: That still doesn't explain though, why the blocking of Joe failed in the previous Night.
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dedoporno: He doesn't have a role so can't be blocked?
Yes. Seems like it.

About your reveal: it might even be a very risky play, to give both you and your scum-partner an alibi. "Pooka couldn't have performed the kill because he was blocked and I couldn't have performed the kill, because I was jailing him!" It would be quite risky and I would expect that Pooka would have confirmed the block in this case (pretending that Vanillas are told about blocks), but it is a possibility to consider.


So, we have two confirmed Vanillas. ... Vanillae? What's the correct plural? Could they be the scum-team? We speculated earlier, that if there are two scum left, they would have to be quite weak. Otherwise the balance is really off.

Let's go over the players we have (apart from me, since I would even rate myself as Town even if I weren't)

Joe - is confirmed Vanilla. Has been feeling off the entire game (at least to me). But has turned more towny towards the End of D2. Can be scum alone, can be scum with anyone.
Pooka - is confirmed Vanilla. Hat his scummy but also some towny moments. Can NOT be scum alone - and conveniently prefers the 'one scum' theory, since it became clear that it can't be him. Can be scum with almost anyone, but probably isn't scum with RW (see post 722).
RW - claims JOAT. Has been skillfully unreadable. Can NOT be scum alone. Can be scum with anyone, but probably isn't scum with Pooka. (see above)
dedo - claims Jailer. Has been very towny throughout the whole game but lied about the number of his shots. Can be scum alone or with anyone. Could especially be a very daring scum together with Pooka.

If we assume the one-scum theory, we get to exclude two people from the 'might be scum' pool. However, that would be a dangerous assumption.
If we assume the two-scum theory, I think that either Joe+Pooka (both are vanilla, balancing reasons) or Pooka+dedo are likely teams. Or RW with Joe, even if Joe protested that him and RW had far too much conflict for them to be a team... but lo and behold. Both are still alive! And even bussing isn't unheard of. So, in retrospect, they make a likely team exactly because of their public display of adversity.

Currently, I would prefer Pooka. He felt again off today. Throwing shade for very weak reasons (which he explained as Town-desparation) and his sudden preference of the 'one scum' theory, when it was opportune for him look rather scummy than towny.
Posted December 07, 2019
Let me clarify. I actually had the "single scum" feeling since late last Day, but failed to imply or breadcrumb it. I didn't mention it to make use of the opportunity of being jailed and give off the vibe of LAMIST as I understand what Lift is saying.

Now the current situation of the game sounds similar to one I played outside of this forums, where a series of claims leave out one person mechanically (in this case Joe was neither visited or visited anybody), except rather than a counterclaim emerging from anybody, nothing too significant happened. That's bad. Makes me wish I was counterclaimed so that I can have a fun duel with the scum at the risk of a successful HSL style manipulation, but eh.

And as much as dedo says he has nothing to gain from lying, that it would risk the town points he got, an alibi is one thing he can gain from it. If he had none, he would've been in the pool of suspects, but his jailing of me can clear himself of having done any killings and also clear me of the same, directing the kill towards...Joe! And I can see why he would do such a direction, after all Joe has been suspect and was a main wagon on D3 before blotunga took over. A vanilla Joe who visited nobody during the night being the only one left from this "claim network" as I like to call it, now even more viable for a lynch. Sounds like something dedo can gain from his fullclaim!
Posted December 07, 2019
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PookaMustard: Let me clarify. I actually had the "single scum" feeling since late last Day, but failed to imply or breadcrumb it. I didn't mention it to make use of the opportunity of being jailed and give off the vibe of LAMIST as I understand what Lift is saying.

Now the current situation of the game sounds similar to one I played outside of this forums, where a series of claims leave out one person mechanically (in this case Joe was neither visited or visited anybody), except rather than a counterclaim emerging from anybody, nothing too significant happened. That's bad. Makes me wish I was counterclaimed so that I can have a fun duel with the scum at the risk of a successful HSL style manipulation, but eh.

And as much as dedo says he has nothing to gain from lying, that it would risk the town points he got, an alibi is one thing he can gain from it. If he had none, he would've been in the pool of suspects, but his jailing of me can clear himself of having done any killings and also clear me of the same, directing the kill towards...Joe! And I can see why he would do such a direction, after all Joe has been suspect and was a main wagon on D3 before blotunga took over. A vanilla Joe who visited nobody during the night being the only one left from this "claim network" as I like to call it, now even more viable for a lynch. Sounds like something dedo can gain from his fullclaim!
On the phone so bad quoting. Even if I didn'y have an alibi I didn't really need it. If we believe everyone's claims and I didn't add mine I'd still be the least suspect of the three of us. And do you think I'd actually prefer to side with you and try to blame Joe instead of keep going after you like I did the whole game? Lift said he failed targeting you so you wouldn't had alibi either.
Posted December 07, 2019
Huh. The last thing dedo said is true: He has been going after pooka all game...

My reaction to reading all the claims was “it’s none of you??”

Then it was “thinking about it, it must be RWarehall”

Then it was “Actually, it must be Pooka and Dedo”

My reason for that is: It’s easy to assume dedo’s lying about the second shot. I’d have been much more comfortable if, at the beginning of the Day he’d said “by the way I have more to my role that I didn’t tell you about so consider me for mass claim orders too.” As it is it’s tempting to see what he’s done as:
1 - scum dedo reads all the claims and sees how scum pooka is widely-suspected and mechanically-probable to be the killer.
2 - scum dedo knows that just one mis-lynch will win him the game.
3 - scum dedo decides it’s worth a gambit and decides to mechanically-eliminate pooka from the possible killers.

—-

Now, how possible is it that dedo and pooka are a team based on voting history? Dedo was on pooka’s wagon Day One, which nearly went through, so from that alone it seems unlikely.
I think he was the first to join ZFR on the gamerager exodus.
I remember him saying “but pooka is my preferred target if anybody’s interested” or something like that toward the end of Day Two, which I remember thinking was so sincere that it might be worth trusting dedo and going for it, but in my position it would probably just get me lynched, as I was the biggest wagon at the time, and I’d been town-reading pooka for most of the game. My heart wasn’t really in it.

It does seem unlikely.


Has RW said definitely that he was trying to do an action night Two?
RWarehall - did you try and act Night Two? What did you do? What’s the title of your role? (Not as in character name, obvs)

Did anyone ever find an example of Trent NOT giving block-flavour to a role that wasn’t trying to act? It would help set my mind at rest somewhat.


—-

Thinking about it again, just now, does Lift’s claim make him town? I’d been thinking “well there’s our other town power role!” But it’s possible roleblocker is a mafia role. Would he have tried to block pooka if he were mafia? Possibly, but it seems unlikely.
Also Lift’s play since the end of yesterDay has been pretty convincing... I think I’m going to trust Lift.
Posted December 07, 2019
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PookaMustard: ...
So, just to make sure that I understand correctly, dedo is your main suspect at the moment? And you think that Joe is 'mechanically exposed' but that that exposure has been fabricated by scum? Did you consider that Joe maybe is mechanically exposed because he actually is scum?

I also thought a bit more about dedo's lie (or rather correction of the earlier lie). I really don't think that a lone-scum dedo would have exposed a lie to prove that you, Pooka, can't be lone scum. That was the effect of his reveal. You can't be lone scum anymore. So you profited from dedo's reveal too.
I think a lone-scum dedo would just have used the fact that he had the best standing among all players and would just have gotten you or Joe lynched. Without jumping through hoops to 'mechanically expose' Joe. So I think we can safely assume that dedo, if he is scum, has a partner who also profits from this gambit. Either directly, like you Pooka, or indirectly via some WIFOM route.

However, in spite of all my dislike for lying, I still see Town-reasons for dedo to have lied about the number of shots he had. Even though I wish he hadn't if he really is Town. RW's "I won't tell to keep scum guessing" method would have been better. But what is done, is done. Dedo still feels towny and if he is scum, he probably has a partner. So let's try to find someone who could either be scum with dedo or with someone else. ... Or alone.
Posted December 07, 2019
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Lifthrasil: So let's try to find someone who could either be scum with dedo or with someone else. ... Or alone.
I’ve been carefully considering everybody in the game, and I’ve narrowed it down to RW, Pooka, Lift or Joe.

Actually I’m going to discount Joe. I should have mentioned this before but my role explicitly states that he’s town.

(I agree dedo’s probably not solo scum so he’s maybe a bad lynch for today)

(But... solo scum dedo - I can believe it from his play this game.)



We have nothing but conjecture to explain why there was no serial kill Night One, do we?

And only dedo could have prevented the kill Night Two?

So - unless dedo deliberately didn’t kill anyone Night 2 in order to claim jailkeeper and appear to have prevented a kill, dedo’s mechanically cleared, no?

Something which speaks against dedo-not-killing-to-appear-to-have-prevented-a-kill is dedo’s ‘derp’ over blocking RedFire. Dedo claimed the block was prevented, before he knew what the ascetic qualifier meant - which at least proves that he is a jailer... or blocker or some sort. Or insidiously tactical.

But yeah. With the events of Night 2, Scum-Dedo can only be on a team with RW (RW’s confirmation of the block means Scum-RW would have to have been part of the ‘make it look like a kill was prevented and if that means RW gets lynched his town flip will ensure dedo’s town place until they get to the end of the game and wonder why town dedo’s still alive” plot. )

Scum-Dedo’s basically impossible I think? Any objections?
Posted December 07, 2019
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JoeSapphire: My reason for that is: It’s easy to assume dedo’s lying about the second shot. I’d have been much more comfortable if, at the beginning of the Day he’d said “by the way I have more to my role that I didn’t tell you about so consider me for mass claim orders too.”
Saying anything previously might have hinted the scum about what I was planning to do which might have thrown a wrench in the works and make it even harder for me to come out normally. This is not the first time I do something like that, although in this Lift and possible RW are the only ones who might be aware of it (for Lift I'm pretty sure since this is one of the few things we are on both ends of the specter).
As a matter of fact I was about to make a full claim right out the door. As most of you have probably noticed the game has gotten substantially slower Today. For a good couple of hours Trent's opening of the Day was the only post of D4. I don't know if I was the first one to show up but I was actually typed a full post with my reveal - initially I thought it's best to go first before anyone since I was a bit concerned Pooka might report the jailing and it would have been a whole lot harder to explain things after I've been called out. I still have the post in my poor-man's lazarus form saver. But ultimately I decided to try and see if there will be a difference in claims and risk it. When RW said he may have watched someone I got more concerned as that added another possibility of someone else calling me out be he didn't blow the whistle right away so I assumed that even if he knew I did something he would have put 2 and 2 together and would have known it probably wasn't something bad and gave me the chance to do whatever I was doing (like how he allowed me to tease my first jailing target without coming out). I wanted to go after Pooka and ideally after Lift but before RW's final reveals. I saw Pooka's but then we had to go to my in-laws. I missed the window and the meantime Lift's claim made things even harder. You know the rest. As I said, things didn't exactly go as planned but it could have been a lot worse considering all the stuff that could have happened and didn't.

I'll share what I was pondering about yesterday after everyone claimed their actions but I want to re-read Lift's.
Posted December 07, 2019
Again on a mobile, so only short:
@Joe: you are actually right. There was no other way how the N2 kill can have been prevented. Agent would have died on a successful protection, my roleblock failed, RW confirmed having been blocked and Joe and Pooka are vanilla.
So the only way dedo can be scum with RW (or anyone really) would be if he intentionally skipped the kill. But that would have been very stupid. If there are two scum we would have been at MYLO after a successful N2 kill. And while the revealed lie has made me consider scum-dedo for a while, I am quite sure that dedo isn't stupid.

So, I actually agree with Joe, we can clear dedo.
@Pooka: if you disagree, you'll have to explain the missing N2 kill!

More later.
Posted December 07, 2019
Confirmed Town:

ZFR - Macho Cop
Agent - Angel (Bodyguard)
GR - Vanilla
Blotunga - Vanilla

Non-confirmed Town:

Dedo - 2-shot Jailkeeper
Joe - Vanilla
Pooka - Vanilla
RW - X 1-shot abilities (assumed Jack-of-all-trades, never officially claimed)
Lift - Limited Roleblocker

If we take all claimed PRs at face value we do have a few things to make use of even though they are limited in various ways so limitation seems to be the main theme here. Yet one claim here is not exactly like the others. Lift's PR seems to be the worst of the bunch to the point where he is a liability for Town right out of the box:

- Useless against the SK
- If we accept the theory about having more than one, but powerless, Kitsune - absolutely useless against ALL threats to town.
- If there are fewer (1?) but powerful Kitsune it's still more likely to damage the Town rather than the Kitsune (the limitation is allegedly a secret so it would have taken a while to figure it out if at all)
- Damaging against all other Town PRs

The above points are based on Lift's suspicion about what his limitation is. Speaking of which, having a hidden limitation is borderline bastard mod stuff. Something everyone can help with is going back to check how Lift reacted to Agent's mention of bastard modding.

If Lift is telling the truth we were even worse off than we thought. Or the Kitsune are under-powered as well (or lone?). It just doesn't make a lot of sense.

One final thing that bugs me - the flavor for RFG. Our flavor is fundamentally different. Lift said:

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Lifthrasil: I was blocked/jailed. I couldn't leave my room.
When I tried to go after RFG I couldn't find my tools and spent the whole night looking for them and only found them in the morning when it was too late to act. I wasn't actively prevented in any way. I don't know how his character is supposed to do what he does but why would there be such a difference?

So, if all of the above is really true the question is "Why??"
Posted December 08, 2019
Yes. I noticed the difference in flavour, but I can't explain it. All I know is, that I was locked inside my room. I first assumed, that I had been jailed. I don't know, how RFGs power is worked, but I guess trent will explain in post-game.

I also noticed, that my role is probably negative utility. Unless we have one strong scum instead of two goons. One more reason why I would like the 'one lone scum' scenario. But as I said, it's safer to assume two scum and a useless Lift, no matter how much I hope that it's one scum and a slightly useful Lift.
Posted December 08, 2019
Night 2 I was going to Watch Dedo ironically because I thought he might be a target. I do recall that prior game too. I don't like Town lying because it might mess up our analysis. But I did suspect you might be sandbagging, so i'm not too surprised.

My role is [xxx] (Jack of All Trades). Since the mod would rather we not claim our characters for balance and fairness, I'm holding back on the [xxx]. It cheapens the win if we break to game that way. I'm not sure Agent realised how significant that breadcrumbing was essentially resulting in a character claim, but I watch the show...

Sorry for the late post. Caught a bad cold, got up early, went back to bed and woke up after sleeping almost 13 hours.
Posted December 08, 2019
I assume Lift must have been telling the truth about trying to block pooka because of RW’s ‘I observed something’ threat. This is invalidated if RW and Lift are in a team.
(However that would mean the town set up was four vanillas, one machismo cop, a bodyguard and a (two-shot??) jailer versus an ascetic serial killer and a (rolecop?) mafia and a (roleblocker?) mafia.
Is that impossible? It doesn’t look right does it? But maybe.

Could lift have lied brazenly, hoping that RW didn’t observe him? It’s possible...
If he killed Carr, then he’d know he was likely unobserved (RW made out that his information might bit be noteworthy, but that would be) Still, if he was lying about the role and had targeted Carr, he could have claimed something less problematic. Town watcher would have been clever, but then your false-report would have to tally with RW’s false report so there’s more risk... hmmm... Town tracker on Carr... still possible RW would counter. Doctor on Carr...why did he die?

Hm.
Lift’s role does seem too convoluted to be true. And, as dedo points out, too dangerous to be sensible.

But maybe he’s not a roleblocker, but he has some other role which targeted Pooka last night?

In which case, who did the kill? Not pooka, unless Lift is a scum-bolstering role of some sort (does such a thing exist?)


If pooka’s a lone scum then Carr didn’t die last night - not possible.
If RW’s a lone scum then he killed ZFR and rolecopped Joe in the same night - unusual but not impossible.
If Lift is a lone scum then he lied about his action, knowing that there’s a good chance he was observed - gutsy and unlikely but not impossible.
If Dedo is a lone scum then he’s also a jailer and elected not to kill Night2 in order to jail RW, and then lied about jailing pooka Night 3 for no reason - highly unlikely. But I suppose, not impossible.
If Joe is a lone scum there’s no mechanical problems. Yay...

Pooka & RW - This is the most likely combination to me. Pooka was supposedly blocked Night 3 while RW supposedly watched dedo, but this could have been faked. Pooka acting Night 1 while RW rolecopping, then RW killing the next two nights makes sense. Other things make me doubt it, but with the options available this is what I’m drawn to.
Pooka & Lift - Day 1 makes me think this is unlikely. I think there was something else too?
Pooka & Dedo - Dedo was on pooka’s wagon when pooka was nearly lynched Day 1. Unlikely.
Pooka and Joe - From the look of it, perfectly possible (but in reality not)

RW and lift - RW Day 3 makes me think this is unlikely
RW and Dedo - RW confirmed Dedo’s night 2 action, which half-implicated dedo. Weird and unlikely.
RW and Joe - Day 1 and 2 make this unlikely. (Plus I know it’s not possible)

Dedo and Lift - maybe? But basically impossible for other reasons.
Dedo and Joe - best buds all game. Seems possible doesn’t it? (It isn’t)


Did I forget or mistake anything?
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #63 Supernatural(876 posts)(876 posts)
(876 posts)