You've forgotten to scum hunt.

That about sounds right.

1) I said I *suspected*, a *gut feeling*, etc. How is this remarkably different than any other way of looking in the early game?
There are 4 people I know nothing about, 4 I somewhat kinda know (due to having played with them before). 2 or 3 of these 8 are scum (or neutral), what is so bad about starting out by looking for 1 (or more) scum in each group? You focus differently on those you know than on complete unknowns. That is basically what I meant by that list/grouping.

2a) I never said Pooka voted on you. I said Pooka had you as one of his top suspects. When I hurriedly read his ISO for the first time post-NK, that was what jumped out at me. When I pressed you on it, you denied so hard I became mostly convinced, and further interpreted your denial etc as pushing me to vote for Blot (my vote was on you, you went to lengths about how Blot was a better lynch candidate, followed by "i want you to flip." I intrepreted this as "I want you to flip your vote from Book to Blot." I did, and felt a bit betrayed (not to say weirded-out) when you didn't vote for Blot. It seems like you were pushing me to do your dirty work for you.

2b) So I messed up on Cop(?) vs Rolecop. Yes, a similar difference got Scene hung and I should have been more careful. In my defense, a cop is defined: "is guaranteed to be sane" without defining what a cop does, while a rolecop is defined as "finds out someone's role". I remembered it as "role=side+power" not "role=power."

2c) You are miss-representing me. At the time I did not say that "every role was available for anyone to take," I said, "I think it obvious that with 17 PRs spread among 10 players, most everyone has a PR"--not all, but most players.
To use your words, any role was available for anyone to take if they had bid correctly. (Most of you have played with each other before and know somewhat how each others' minds work, and thus what numbers each are more likely to draw. This gives you a tiny bit of advantage. Probably not enough to have mattered, but still.)
If you look at the math, it makes sense that--with 17 Powers to choose from, 10 players would (probably) nearly all have a Power. I figured some players would go with the roles less likely to be picked (thinking they are more likely to get a role if they choose an unpopular one) while others would push for more popular ones. In fact, up to and including this point, I don't expect there to be more than 2 vanilla people, including myself.

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As a side note, ZFR, about the only thing I have extensively used the mafia wiki for is abbreviations, as they say on the page that most of their info regarding scumtells and such is hopelessly out of date, such that no good player makes these, so (at least how I read it) there is little if any point to reading it until i became scum, as none of my opponents would do them.
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Personally, I think you have been (purposely?) misreading or misunderstanding me, and I am wondering why. Are you doing so deliberately, or am I just that bad of a communicator? Is my logic really as faulty as you think it is? I'd be interested to talk post-game about it, I guess.

I am sorry that--if you are indeed town--you feel I am a detriment to Town; If you all feel that way perhaps I should be replaced?
I probably can improve during this game, but maybe not.

"His investigation, huh? What would you know about his investigation?" My question to Blot exactly. Also, your next phrase shows just how eager you are to falsely pin something on me when Blot had already addressed this.

Blot: "If he's scum maybe he wasn't expecting to come under fire so that's why his almost but not really role cop claim." What???? I did not come close to claiming Role cop; I emphatically denied being the role-cop; I stated that I had bid for role-cop and lost. In what world can you read this as a "almost but not really claim"??? The real rolecop (and you know who you are) sees nothing suspicious in this statement, merely that they beat me out for the job.

When i am proven town, what will your opinion of Yog be then?

-------------------------

Also, Trent has said what I could quote from the PM (name and role), and I will.
I am Christopher Robin, Vanilla"
Town, look to your win condition; it does not refute the possibility of a 3rd-party.

All for now, as I have to go.

Side note (out of game):

"If you look at the math(s)"

Aaaaah

Again, this is out of game, but this is an example of a counter-intuitive problem.

"with 17 Powers to choose from, 10 players would (probably) nearly all have a Power."

First, let's assume players choose roles randomly. In reality, chances of everyone getting a power are even smaller, since players don't choose roles randomly, as you noted. Some roles are more popular.

Assuming 10 players choose from 17 powers, the probability of everyone getting a power is:

17!/(17-10)! * 17^10 = 0.035 = 3.5%

Extremely small. Contrary to what your intuition would tell you.

About right that sounds.


If four chose cop and three chose doctor that leaves three to choose from the other roles formulaicly looks like:



jdfsuwej09340938jfafpdjp90we3jmnrpjvmpq43o0ejfnmsdvmvpoewi

#mathz

I should read things more carefully. I just processed the derpclear comment in my mind.

Let's assume Micro is town for a moment.
Is some scum already on his wagon (ie Bookwyrm, maybe Korotan). If there are 2 scum I don't think both would be on the wagon at this stage, maybe none are.

@Micro: the almost but not really, meant that you bid for the role but didn't get it. Also yes, the victory condition doesn't excludes a third party, both you and Korotan pointed this out and I agree.

I need a bit more input from others to process again.
So at this point since I'm uncertain
unvote Microfish[/d]

I'm back. Unfortunately I didn't have internet access after all. I'll be able to catch up once I finish unpacking and have a quick nap as I'm knackered from the driving.

Right.

but what's the probability that 7-10 players would get a power? That's a bit closer to the statement '10 players would (probably) nearly all have a power.' that microfish actually said.

Of course the premise is a little flawed as well. For example there were three roles that most of the players would likely be avoiding (godfather, ninja, strongarm)... so it's a little more nuances than 10 drawing from 17. But anyway.


I had a quick scan through some games where flub was mafia and found this:

https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_54_pokemon_death_tournament/post389

it's an example of wolf!flub vaguely stating that he thinks Yogsloth's town, giving no particular reason for doing so. (true, he begins the next day by immediately voting yogsloth, but...)

Is it a counterexample of what you state Yogs? What is it about the statement you quoted that wolf!flub never ever ever in his long-legged life says?

Interestingly I also found this:

https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_54_pokemon_death_tournament/post608

Wolf!flub getting very defensive and aggressive when vitek accuses him of trying to manipulate votes. Calls to mind

this:
and this: There are notable differences - flub's much less agressive in this situation, but then I'm not voting him and I've never actually said that flub's behaviour was scummy.
Accusing flub of manipulation (or perhaps competence in any degree) might be as much an ignition for town-flubbucket as it is for mafia-flubbucket. I could go looking through some more old games but I think I'm giving up archive-surfing for the day.



TIME TO LIST ALL THE PLAYERS FROM LEAST-TO-MOST SCUMMY

microfish - If the first "derp clear" didn't convince me, the second one has.
Korotan - comes across open and sincere. I'm quite convinced korotan is town.
dedoporno - left for a road trip a few days ago, due to return soon (pre-post edit - returned just now! Hello!), but before that he seemed interested in scum hunting and game solving
blotunga - taking a lot of pressure from people, and handling it well I feel. I'm not sure I see what others see, but, I dunno
flubbucket - Yogsloth claims to be convinced he's town. I think he's a bit defensive, but I'm not too sure. I fucked up a bit by misunderstanding him and then wasting most of today going over what happened.
ZFR - more aggressive than usual? Microfish thinks he's deliberately twisting his words, and I'm not sure I see that, but the 3.5% thing is a bit of a misrepresentation.
yogsloth - I feel he's being evasive. People have mentioned that he's not doing much scumhunting. He's certain that flub is town and confident that microfish is too. Overall unsettling.
bookwyrm - felt like he was a bit fixated on me during day one. Now he's fixated on microfish. Odd that in the same post that he's describing how wrong microfish is being, he explains the meaning of "derpclear" or "too-dumb-to-be-scum". Bit odd that.

So. My way forward is clear. vote bookwyrm

Prettiest Princess Award:

One vote for:
JoeSapphire (flubbucket)
Korotan ( yogsloth)
bookwyrm (JoeSapphire)

Two votes for:
Microfish ( bookwyrm, Korotan)
blotunga (ZFR, Microfish)

Closest to winning the contest with 2 votes is Microfish & blotunga, it takes 5 votes to win the contest.

Not voting: blotunga, dedoporno

Countdown Timer

That's left as homework excercise for you.

I didn't mean "What is my reason for making you look bad?"

I meant "Why is it that you're misunderstanding my attempt to find out what you meant as an attempt to make you appear manipulative?"

As in, I think you're more defensive than you need to be.

It's true that my early-game play has evolved. I spend more time the first couple of Days hunting Town than hunting Scum.

I've found that with little hard information available, hunting scum is like hunting ghosts - if you really want them, you'll see them everywhere.

I feel pretty good about the two players I believe to be Town. That leaves six of you, the POE tightens up, and there's less room for mafia to wiggle around in.

btw, Mafia think I'm actually the Town Cop and it's pretty funny, but don't tell them I'm not or they'll get confused

I hate you. Now that you asked it I couldn't let it go and had to actually calculate it. Thanks for making me do this on a Sunday, asshole :P

I won't copy the formula (no nice way of making it appear in plain text), but it's point 16 "The probability density function of the number of distinct values is given by" from this page:
http://www.randomservices.org/random/urn/Birthday.html

This gives (rounded to 2 decimal places):
P(at least 10 power roles) = 3.5%
P(at least 9 power roles) = 23.19%
P(at least 8 power roles) = 59.66%
P(at least 7 power roles) = 88.25%
P(at least 6 power roles) = 98.34%
P(at least 5 power roles) = 99.90%
P(at least 4 power roles) = 100.00% (well, not exactly 100% of course, but at this stage the probability of having 3 power roles or less is smaller than 0.01%, so if we round to 2 decimal places we get this)

I... didn't expect it to be so high for 7-10 or 8-10. I guess I learnt something about counter-intuitivity myself today. I humbly stand corrected.

Of course this assumes we pick roles randomly. But still...

Attached is the excel sheet I used, in case anyone wants to go over my maths.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k9kfnp6bo3mgyy6/general%20birthday%20problem.xlsx

Ok, ZFR's math looks sound and it's likely that we also have vanillas amongst us.
As I said I'm not sure at all about Micro anymore, I do think he really blundered without being scum.

So I'm back to square one.
I think at this point my favorite candidates are yos and bookwyrm.

Catching up now.