Posted May 18, 2019
ZFR
I love gold!
ZFR Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Microfish_1
I'm not a duck
Microfish_1 Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Dec 2017
From United States
ZFR
I love gold!
ZFR Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted May 19, 2019
Microfish_1: If you look at the math, it makes sense that--with 17 Powers to choose from, 10 players would (probably) nearly all have a Power. I figured some players would go with the roles less likely to be picked (thinking they are more likely to get a role if they choose an unpopular one) while others would push for more popular ones. In fact, up to and including this point, I don't expect there to be more than 2 vanilla people, including myself.
Side note (out of game): "If you look at the math(s)"
Aaaaah
Again, this is out of game, but this is an example of a counter-intuitive problem.
"with 17 Powers to choose from, 10 players would (probably) nearly all have a Power."
First, let's assume players choose roles randomly. In reality, chances of everyone getting a power are even smaller, since players don't choose roles randomly, as you noted. Some roles are more popular.
Assuming 10 players choose from 17 powers, the probability of everyone getting a power is:
17!/(17-10)! * 17^10 = 0.035 = 3.5%
Extremely small. Contrary to what your intuition would tell you.
flubbucket
"Intoning"
flubbucket Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
Posted May 19, 2019
yogsloth: Look son
I've learned more about scum hunting than you've ever forgotton
...
No, no hang on
I've forgotten more about scum hunting than I've ever learned
...
Wait, hang on
...
ZFR: You've forgotten to scum hunt. I've learned more about scum hunting than you've ever forgotton
...
No, no hang on
I've forgotten more about scum hunting than I've ever learned
...
Wait, hang on
...
That about sounds right.
ZFR: ...........
First, let's assume players choose roles randomly. In reality, chances of everyone getting a power are even smaller, since players don't choose roles randomly, as you noted. Some roles are more popular.
Assuming 10 players choose from 17 powers, the probability of everyone getting a power is:
17!/(17-10)! * 17^10 = 0.035 = 3.5%
Extremely small. Contrary to what your intuition would tell you.
If four chose cop and three chose doctor that leaves three to choose from the other roles formulaicly looks like: First, let's assume players choose roles randomly. In reality, chances of everyone getting a power are even smaller, since players don't choose roles randomly, as you noted. Some roles are more popular.
Assuming 10 players choose from 17 powers, the probability of everyone getting a power is:
17!/(17-10)! * 17^10 = 0.035 = 3.5%
Extremely small. Contrary to what your intuition would tell you.
jdfsuwej09340938jfafpdjp90we3jmnrpjvmpq43o0ejfnmsdvmvpoewi
#mathz
blotunga
GrumpyOldGamers.CyringOutMiserably
blotunga Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2012
From Other
Posted May 19, 2019
yogsloth: I think microfish is pretty tonally pure.
The whole thing about "investigate me as vanilla to prove I'm Town" is what on MU they call a "derpclear". I buy it.
Not voting there.
ZFR: OK, there is no way in heck scum!yog would be protecting scum!micro this way. If Micro was a mafia who screwed up, yog would be the first one bussing him at this stage (L-2). If Micro flips scum, this pretty much confirms yogs as Town as far as I'm concerned. The whole thing about "investigate me as vanilla to prove I'm Town" is what on MU they call a "derpclear". I buy it.
Not voting there.
So, with (Micro,yog) FF not possible, the other options are:
TT: Micro is a townie who played badly, and yogsloth is a townie who genuinely saw a "derpclear".
FT: Micro is a scum who screwed up, and yogsloth is a townie who genuinely took the screwup to be a "derpclear".
TF: Micro is a townie who played badly, and yogsloth is a scum who, seeing the wagon proceeding steadily towards an inevitable lynch, wanted to keep his hands clean after Micro flips town.
I'm really wondering about that third option.
Interestingly, Joe also "kind felt the same way". *sniff* *sniff* Smells of trying-to-keep-hands-clean-after-townie-flips too.
Let's assume Micro is town for a moment.
Is some scum already on his wagon (ie Bookwyrm, maybe Korotan). If there are 2 scum I don't think both would be on the wagon at this stage, maybe none are.
@Micro: the almost but not really, meant that you bid for the role but didn't get it. Also yes, the victory condition doesn't excludes a third party, both you and Korotan pointed this out and I agree.
I need a bit more input from others to process again.
So at this point since I'm uncertain
unvote Microfish[/d]
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
dedoporno Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
Posted May 19, 2019
I'm back. Unfortunately I didn't have internet access after all. I'll be able to catch up once I finish unpacking and have a quick nap as I'm knackered from the driving.
JoeSapphire
Consultant Liar
JoeSapphire Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jun 2011
From United Kingdom
Posted May 19, 2019
JoeSapphire: Do you think I'm wrong to have concerns about the way your lynch wagon turned out yesterday?
yogsloth: d) I don't know and i don't care Microfish_1: ...it makes sense that--with 17 Powers to choose from, 10 players would (probably) nearly all have a Power. ...
ZFR: Assuming 10 players choose from 17 powers, the probability of everyone getting a power is: 17!/(17-10)! * 17^10 = 0.035 = 3.5%
Extremely small. Contrary to what your intuition would tell you.
Of course the premise is a little flawed as well. For example there were three roles that most of the players would likely be avoiding (godfather, ninja, strongarm)... so it's a little more nuances than 10 drawing from 17. But anyway.
flubbucket: yogsloth's overall tone was one of vanilla town in my opinion. I simply made up my mind based on my interpretation of his posts.
yogsloth: wolf!flub never ever EVER says this https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_54_pokemon_death_tournament/post389
it's an example of wolf!flub vaguely stating that he thinks Yogsloth's town, giving no particular reason for doing so. (true, he begins the next day by immediately voting yogsloth, but...)
Is it a counterexample of what you state Yogs? What is it about the statement you quoted that wolf!flub never ever ever in his long-legged life says?
Interestingly I also found this:
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_54_pokemon_death_tournament/post608
Wolf!flub getting very defensive and aggressive when vitek accuses him of trying to manipulate votes. Calls to mind
this:
JoeSapphire: ...............
Nobody else interested in how we took Yogsloth to lunch-minus-two yesterday and then dropped the wagon based on flubbucket's now-admittedly-flawed logic?
............
flubbucket: Your estimation of my mind control powers is greatly exaggerated. Nobody else interested in how we took Yogsloth to lunch-minus-two yesterday and then dropped the wagon based on flubbucket's now-admittedly-flawed logic?
............
But thanks for the shade on this sunny spring day.
flubbucket: ...
To continue to insinuate I led you to believe anything is weak at best and scummy at worst.
Sadly, I have no ability to kill anyone's brain.
BTW.....Still shady over here.
There are notable differences - flub's much less agressive in this situation, but then I'm not voting him and I've never actually said that flub's behaviour was scummy. To continue to insinuate I led you to believe anything is weak at best and scummy at worst.
Sadly, I have no ability to kill anyone's brain.
BTW.....Still shady over here.
Accusing flub of manipulation (or perhaps competence in any degree) might be as much an ignition for town-flubbucket as it is for mafia-flubbucket. I could go looking through some more old games but I think I'm giving up archive-surfing for the day.
TIME TO LIST ALL THE PLAYERS FROM LEAST-TO-MOST SCUMMY
microfish - If the first "derp clear" didn't convince me, the second one has.
Korotan - comes across open and sincere. I'm quite convinced korotan is town.
dedoporno - left for a road trip a few days ago, due to return soon (pre-post edit - returned just now! Hello!), but before that he seemed interested in scum hunting and game solving
blotunga - taking a lot of pressure from people, and handling it well I feel. I'm not sure I see what others see, but, I dunno
flubbucket - Yogsloth claims to be convinced he's town. I think he's a bit defensive, but I'm not too sure. I fucked up a bit by misunderstanding him and then wasting most of today going over what happened.
ZFR - more aggressive than usual? Microfish thinks he's deliberately twisting his words, and I'm not sure I see that, but the 3.5% thing is a bit of a misrepresentation.
yogsloth - I feel he's being evasive. People have mentioned that he's not doing much scumhunting. He's certain that flub is town and confident that microfish is too. Overall unsettling.
bookwyrm - felt like he was a bit fixated on me during day one. Now he's fixated on microfish. Odd that in the same post that he's describing how wrong microfish is being, he explains the meaning of "derpclear" or "too-dumb-to-be-scum". Bit odd that.
So. My way forward is clear. vote bookwyrm
trentonlf
Easily amused
trentonlf Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
Posted May 19, 2019
Prettiest Princess Award:
One vote for:
JoeSapphire (flubbucket)
Korotan ( yogsloth)
bookwyrm (JoeSapphire)
Two votes for:
Microfish ( bookwyrm, Korotan)
blotunga (ZFR, Microfish)
Closest to winning the contest with 2 votes is Microfish & blotunga, it takes 5 votes to win the contest.
Not voting: blotunga, dedoporno
Countdown Timer
One vote for:
JoeSapphire (flubbucket)
Korotan ( yogsloth)
bookwyrm (JoeSapphire)
Two votes for:
Microfish ( bookwyrm, Korotan)
blotunga (ZFR, Microfish)
Closest to winning the contest with 2 votes is Microfish & blotunga, it takes 5 votes to win the contest.
Not voting: blotunga, dedoporno
Countdown Timer
Post edited May 19, 2019 by trentonlf
ZFR
I love gold!
ZFR Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
flubbucket
"Intoning"
flubbucket Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
JoeSapphire
Consultant Liar
JoeSapphire Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jun 2011
From United Kingdom
Posted May 19, 2019
yogsloth
GRAAAAAAH!!!!!
yogsloth Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted May 19, 2019
It's true that my early-game play has evolved. I spend more time the first couple of Days hunting Town than hunting Scum.
I've found that with little hard information available, hunting scum is like hunting ghosts - if you really want them, you'll see them everywhere.
I feel pretty good about the two players I believe to be Town. That leaves six of you, the POE tightens up, and there's less room for mafia to wiggle around in.
btw, Mafia think I'm actually the Town Cop and it's pretty funny, but don't tell them I'm not or they'll get confused
I've found that with little hard information available, hunting scum is like hunting ghosts - if you really want them, you'll see them everywhere.
I feel pretty good about the two players I believe to be Town. That leaves six of you, the POE tightens up, and there's less room for mafia to wiggle around in.
btw, Mafia think I'm actually the Town Cop and it's pretty funny, but don't tell them I'm not or they'll get confused
ZFR
I love gold!
ZFR Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
Posted May 19, 2019
JoeSapphire: but what's the probability that 7-10 players would get a power? That's a bit closer to the statement '10 players would (probably) nearly all have a power.' that microfish actually said.
I hate you. Now that you asked it I couldn't let it go and had to actually calculate it. Thanks for making me do this on a Sunday, asshole :P I won't copy the formula (no nice way of making it appear in plain text), but it's point 16 "The probability density function of the number of distinct values is given by" from this page:
http://www.randomservices.org/random/urn/Birthday.html
This gives (rounded to 2 decimal places):
P(at least 10 power roles) = 3.5%
P(at least 9 power roles) = 23.19%
P(at least 8 power roles) = 59.66%
P(at least 7 power roles) = 88.25%
P(at least 6 power roles) = 98.34%
P(at least 5 power roles) = 99.90%
P(at least 4 power roles) = 100.00% (well, not exactly 100% of course, but at this stage the probability of having 3 power roles or less is smaller than 0.01%, so if we round to 2 decimal places we get this)
I... didn't expect it to be so high for 7-10 or 8-10. I guess I learnt something about counter-intuitivity myself today. I humbly stand corrected.
Of course this assumes we pick roles randomly. But still...
Attached is the excel sheet I used, in case anyone wants to go over my maths.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k9kfnp6bo3mgyy6/general%20birthday%20problem.xlsx
blotunga
GrumpyOldGamers.CyringOutMiserably
blotunga Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2012
From Other
Posted May 19, 2019
Ok, ZFR's math looks sound and it's likely that we also have vanillas amongst us.
As I said I'm not sure at all about Micro anymore, I do think he really blundered without being scum.
So I'm back to square one.
I think at this point my favorite candidates are yos and bookwyrm.
As I said I'm not sure at all about Micro anymore, I do think he really blundered without being scum.
So I'm back to square one.
I think at this point my favorite candidates are yos and bookwyrm.
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
dedoporno Sorry, data for given user is currently unavailable. Please, try again later. View profile View wishlist Start conversation Invite to friends Invite to friends Accept invitation Accept invitation Pending invitation... Unblock chat Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
Posted May 19, 2019
Catching up now.