RWarehall: [...] It probably won't convince you, because I pride myself on playing town as scum, but if I were scum, I'd probably have joined a push on one of the many "exploitable people" in the game. Could be Adalia, Drealmer, Lift, Trent, or Gamma as all have said things, at times, which may be questionable and have gathered a bit of suspicion from others. Adding a sixth player and opening up on Hunter, while no one even seemed to suspect him, just would attract a bit too much attention for day 1 and would be unnecessary with such a target rich environment. Suffice it to say, I'm questioning Hunter because I spotted a pattern which I find scummy. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. [...]
It's not the "I pride myself on playing town as scum", and GammaEmerald doesn't count as you did push for him, made a case, voted him, and are still voting him.
It's also not as simple as "if I were scum, I'd probably have joined a push on one of the many "exploitable people" in the game. Could be Adalia, Drealmer, Lift, Trent,". I'm pretty sure you factor in odds, and are too experienced to push players that have little chance of actually getting mislynched; the last thing you'd want as scum is to have a record of joining pushes until one of them gains enough traction to secure a mislynch.
As for opening up on Hunter65536, that's pretty much the argument both town and scum would easily make. Plus the way you went about it did attract attention, the sort of attention scum would want it to attract if/when pursuing a mislynch.
Lifthrasil: [...] Why? Scum doesn't necessarily need a mis-lynch. [...]
Because of
this? The longer the game lasts, the harder it gets for scum to secure mislynches, especially given the following:
1. They lose the benefit/advantage of day chat after D1 if we manage to lynch scum Today.
2. The matrix will keep narrowing down the pool of players the remaining scum is in.
3. NKs may narrow down the pool of players they can hide in even further.
Lifthrasil: [...] But a mis-lynch where they are seen pushing the wagon might be bad later on. So scum might already have decided to let us dig our own grave. I.e. wait for the deadline panic to set in. Especially if they already succsessfully stalled a wagon on one of their own (drealmer) or if there never was a serious wagon on one of them (for example because they both are seen as towny by the majority). [...]
I agree with all that, I'm just saying that they don't have to be blatantly pushing the mislynch; it's easier to steer things to a successful mislynch early in the game than it is later, and so far it looks like they're succeeding if all the lynch candidates are town.
Lifthrasil: [...] Hmm. Looking at it from a risk-benefit viewpoint would suggest to me to lynch Gamma or Hunter today. drealmer isn't going to be lynched today. Maybe rightfully so, I don't know. Gamma is suspicious, the lack of votes on him is strange, so the chance of hitting scum with him is high. If he flips scum, that clears drealmer and I can stop worrying about him, which removes the biggest distraction from the game for me. If he flips town, we take another look at RWare and we know that Gamma wasn't scum-buddies with Hunter or adalia after all.
The benefits of lynching Hunter I discussed above. They seem bigger than the ones for Gamma, granted, but he feels less scummy to me. Yes, Hunter does feel off and switches between lackluster participation and unfounded aggression. But I'm not sure enough about him to put him at L-2 yet, just in case no scum is yet on his wagon. At least not without hearing more from him. [...]
adaliabooks: [...] Any thoughts?
I've already said that I won't vote adaliabooks Today, and I'm still too worried that drealmer7 may flip town. It comes down between GammaEmerald and Hunter6553, but I want to hear more from both of them before voting, and I do hope they show up today; neither one will look any better if they don't until too close to deadline.
The fact that GammaEmerald said nothing except apologise and give a reason for his absence when he showed up last night, certainly does not do him any favours.
I'm also not impressed by Hunter6553' silence after his "I couldn't care less if you lynch me".
I've done some thinking for the case we lynch scum, and wonder if the benefit of which players we could clear outweighs that of how many. I've also done some thinking regarding how the NK may go, but not sure how we could make use of that.
Of course, if the player lynched flips town, then we gain nothing from the matrix, but, as Lifthrasil already said, we have interactions and positions to look into, hopefully with the aid of the N1 NK.
