trentonlf: 3. If I'm reading what you are saying you want to lynch Hunter tomorrow after your read tonight
I provided the "investigate/lynch Hunter" play as a way to pretty solidly test my mental state, not as my preferred course of action. I'm not advocating this play, in part because I suspect we don't have many Days left.
Lets say we No Lynch today. Kills are based on last nights occurances.
N2 ends with us down another 2 players, putting us at 6. D3, Lynch Hunter to go to 5, and N3 with 2 kills puts us at 3 players at the start of D4. Total. And we'll only have one original investigation from N4 to work with, assuming I'm one of the three players.
Alright, now that I've run the math, scratch that plan. If Hunter is town, then implementing it is almost certain to make us lose.
trentonlf: If you read Hunter as mafia and he flips town it would prove you are insane or paranoid. We would still not know if you are one or the other without you doing another read to see if it came back as mafia or not. If you did another read it would lead us to suspect you are paranoid if it did come back mafia and your reads would be useless.
If you read Hunter as mafia and he flips mafia your reads would be randomized and useless as well.
If you read Hunter as town and he flips mafia that would prove your insane and we could just do the opposite of your reads. That's the best case scenario for us.
If you read Hunter as town and he flips town again your reads are randomized and useless.
The wiki states that randomized is considered a bastard role, but does not say insane or paranoid is a bastard role. If your results are randomized or paranoid we can't trust them. Insane we can work with.
If you read Hunter and he comes back as mafia I would hesitate to lynch him, but if you read Hunter and he comes back as town I would consider lynching him. I tend to lean toward you being insane or paranoid instead of your reads being randomized since I think we are in a medical ward that deals with mental issues.
I'm pretty sure you've got some wires crossed here.
There are 5 options for my sanity: Sane (reads correct), Insane (reads flipped), Naive (reads Town), Paranoid (reads Scum (in some fashion)), and Random (reads dice, or some other rules are in place to determine my reads).
I've gotten two Mafia reads on Town players. Therefore, I'm not Sane, and I'm not Naive. My mental state is unknown, so don't lynch based solely on my reads.
There is only a 25% chance I'm Random (assuming 50% chance of Town read and 50% chance of Mafia read). Per above Deaths per Day count, we don't have time to try to confirm whether I'm Random (requires investigating and lynching Hunter, as well as a read of Town and a flip of Town). Discard this as unverifiable.
If we investigate and lynch Hunter:
Town read + Town Hunter = I'm random
Town read + Mafia Hunter = I'm insane
Mafia read + Town Hunter = I'm still unknown
Mafia read + Mafia Hunter = I'm paranoid
trentonlf: If you are scum in all this I applaud your performance.
While I wish I could claim an acting credit, the truth can be stranger than fiction.