Posted March 27, 2016
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
JMich
A Horrible Human Person. If you need me, chat.
Registered: Apr 2011
From Greece
Posted March 27, 2016
Assume standard 25% scum. Chance of your first investigation being scum is 25%, chance of your first investigation not being scum is 75%.
A second investigation can clear things up a bit more.
Do note however that Bookwyrm did place his vote on CSPVG on his third post, which does seem to indicate that he did get said read, though the question remains whether his reads can be trusted.
A second investigation can clear things up a bit more.
Do note however that Bookwyrm did place his vote on CSPVG on his third post, which does seem to indicate that he did get said read, though the question remains whether his reads can be trusted.
CSPVG
Headless
Registered: Jan 2013
From South Africa
Posted March 27, 2016
Dedo: Honestly, I thought the ID thing was a joke. I see no reference to ID numbers in my PM.
JMich: Not sure if I may get to pick my target tonight. Bler's wording was (to me) ambiguous enough to make me believe that it may have been a one off. I'll have to clarify that with him, though.
---
In General: Bookwyrm's reference to the possibility of the world ending if he does not investigate someone leads me to believe that he is a sanity affected cop of some sort.
JMich: Not sure if I may get to pick my target tonight. Bler's wording was (to me) ambiguous enough to make me believe that it may have been a one off. I'll have to clarify that with him, though.
---
In General: Bookwyrm's reference to the possibility of the world ending if he does not investigate someone leads me to believe that he is a sanity affected cop of some sort.
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
Posted March 27, 2016
Assume CSPVG flips town. That means the flavor he got on Hunter was correct, so Hunter may or may not be town, and it also means that Bookwyrm's read was false, so he may be a not sane town cop or scum. So if CSPVG flips town, we know the same things we do now, and we are down one town.
If CSPVG flips scum, that will tell us nothing about Hunter, though it will tell us that Bookwyrm's read on CSPVG was correct. That will tell us nothing about Bookwyrm's alignment though, since it is possible that he is throwing a teammate under the bus to establish excellent credentials.
But yes, if you trust that Bookwyrm is a sane town cop, CSPVG is the lynch choice.
We need to take some stand in order to make progress. The impending, and accelerating, end of day should motivate some action.
I'm not happy about either candidate, but No Lynch is an unsavory choice.
When I read this, I heard this.
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
What I find interesting is CSPVG gave a detailed description in his claim and Bookwyrm was nothing but stating he had a N0 action and CSPVG was Mafia. Since bler has been doing flavor with everything I would like to hear the flavor Bookwyrm received with his read.
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
Posted March 27, 2016
Okay I've pared this down so it isn't a Wall o' Text.
Here's the non-RVS Vote.
Bookwyrm627: ...........<snip>...........
and I have no particular attachment to CSPVG surviving. The vote count made me realize that I'm much more used to larger games, where 3 votes isn't halfway there.
Anyway, lets ratchet him up and see what squirms, unless someone has a better candidate?
...........<snip>........... An investigation revealing "mafia" should instill a deeper conviction.
Bookwyrm627: ...........<snip>...........
let's get CSPVG's claim, and go from there. We're likely going to end up doing that to someone anyway. I see no reason to dither, unless someone wants to put another lead out there. Again the lack of conviction regarding CSPVG's guilt.
Bookwyrm627: ...........<snip>...........
I believe I've already said I'm listening for alternatives.
...........<snip>........... What alternatives?? If CSPVG is guilty then there are none.
This is.....odd.
Bookwyrm627: ...........<snip>...........
Yes, voting you was necessary. Alright, I'll ask: is there a reason we shouldn't lynch you? If CSPVG is scum, there is no reason.
There is quite a bit here. What struck me was the potential setup of cristigale. This post seems crafted for the future.
Bookwyrm627: My bad, seemed like a good idea at the time.
---
Anyway, lets lynch CSPVG and move on. He's correct that there is a N0, and he's correct that his name is Danny.
I was allowed a single investigation on N0, and I happened to pick CSPVG. He came back Mafia. And finally the "investigation" with no new information....other than the allegation of course.
Unvote: CSPVG
Vote: Bookwyrm627
Here's the non-RVS Vote.
and I have no particular attachment to CSPVG surviving. The vote count made me realize that I'm much more used to larger games, where 3 votes isn't halfway there.
Anyway, lets ratchet him up and see what squirms, unless someone has a better candidate?
...........<snip>...........
let's get CSPVG's claim, and go from there. We're likely going to end up doing that to someone anyway. I see no reason to dither, unless someone wants to put another lead out there.
I believe I've already said I'm listening for alternatives.
...........<snip>...........
This is.....odd.
Yes, voting you was necessary. Alright, I'll ask: is there a reason we shouldn't lynch you?
There is quite a bit here. What struck me was the potential setup of cristigale. This post seems crafted for the future.
---
Anyway, lets lynch CSPVG and move on. He's correct that there is a N0, and he's correct that his name is Danny.
I was allowed a single investigation on N0, and I happened to pick CSPVG. He came back Mafia.
Unvote: CSPVG
Vote: Bookwyrm627
Bookwyrm627
ADD Jumping Bean
Registered: Nov 2013
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
I asked about the ID first with an idea toward trying to trap him in a lie. However, I later realized that it wouldn't be conclusive, regardless of the answer.
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
The conversation picked up again, but yielding just one vote change.
The deadline has shifted forward again, to 6:55 a.m. (PST) tomorrow
which is 23 hours and 59 minutes from now.
Note: adalia may not be around much tomorrow, so as the deadline shifts earlier the caveat will be that, no matter how early it moves, I'll still have to be awake to actual[ly] effect it. I believe Krypsyn and myself are the two most impacted by the inconvenience of earlier times.
The deadline has shifted forward again, to 6:55 a.m. (PST) tomorrow
which is 23 hours and 59 minutes from now.
Note: adalia may not be around much tomorrow, so as the deadline shifts earlier the caveat will be that, no matter how early it moves, I'll still have to be awake to actual[ly] effect it. I believe Krypsyn and myself are the two most impacted by the inconvenience of earlier times.
Post edited March 27, 2016 by bler144
bler144
μαϊμού
Registered: Dec 2013
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
Oh, and Happy Easter everyone!
To think, if you'd speed lynched on Friday, that person could have been resurrected today!
To think, if you'd speed lynched on Friday, that person could have been resurrected today!
Krypsyn
The Anti-Hippie
Registered: Oct 2008
From United States
drealmer7
finding balance
Registered: Dec 2010
From United States
drealmer7
finding balance
Registered: Dec 2010
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
Let's ask the man himself:
wyrm: what do you think about the possibility/likelihood that you are either paranoid or insane?
wyrm: what do you think about the possibility/likelihood that you are either paranoid or insane?
RWarehall
Ja'loja!
Registered: Jan 2012
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
So your plan is to no-lynch and we can wonder about the same thing tomorrow? I don't see why that helps.
I still don't buy CSPVG's PM. A one-off line about "an accident" with no detail doesn't reassure me. Mine doesn't directly address why exactly I'm here but I can suspect from the context. Even Drealmer's post above gets to the issue...this does appear to be a mental ward and what kind of unnamed accident puts CSPVG here? I don't buy it.
So my vote is staying. Other than that, I might be persuaded to vote Cristigale who seemed to be on some sort of crusade to distract us or convince us to vote anywhere except CSPVG, even before the reveals.
I still don't buy CSPVG's PM. A one-off line about "an accident" with no detail doesn't reassure me. Mine doesn't directly address why exactly I'm here but I can suspect from the context. Even Drealmer's post above gets to the issue...this does appear to be a mental ward and what kind of unnamed accident puts CSPVG here? I don't buy it.
So my vote is staying. Other than that, I might be persuaded to vote Cristigale who seemed to be on some sort of crusade to distract us or convince us to vote anywhere except CSPVG, even before the reveals.
drealmer7
finding balance
Registered: Dec 2010
From United States
Posted March 27, 2016
I still don't buy CSPVG's PM. ... Even Drealmer's post above gets to the issue...this does appear to be a mental ward and what kind of unnamed accident puts CSPVG here? I don't buy it.
I might be persuaded to vote Cristigale who seemed to be on some sort of crusade to distract us or convince us to vote anywhere except CSPVG, even before the reveals.
No-lynch and wyrm are the only two options I'm comfortable with at this point, and I'd like to go the no-lynch route and see how it goes.
I do lean towards believe CSPVG and I am highly doubtful/suspicious of bookwyrm (or at least his character role, that, as I stated very early, may not actually be malicious, but is just unknowingly erroneous, aka paranoid or insane.)
Anyway, at this point, I'm uncertain wtf is going on and don't want to just lynch someone for no good reason as I see it. You have been pushing CSPVG hard since the beginning, and it makes me much more suspicious of you than him too (just as you say cristi is hard towards not voting CSPVG, you are just as hard voting CSPVG.) I would say you are my #1 choice as a possible threat, but no one else seems to be inclined that way so, no-lynch is my optimal choice at this point, and wyrm is a distant but acceptable 2nd choice, and other than that, unless someone provides a convincing case for someone else, this is where I'm staying.
Hunter65536
New GOGlin
Registered: Apr 2014
From India
Posted March 27, 2016
Flubbucket made some nice arguments against wyrm, I'd like to see what wyrm has to say about them before I can say anything about wyrm being a paranoid or insane cop.
Hypothetically let's say we accept wyrm as paranoid or insane cop, how would we go about proving which one he is? If he gets a town result on n1 then paranoid is off the table which would be a good thing but otherwise we're back to same situation we have now.
Hypothetically let's say we accept wyrm as paranoid or insane cop, how would we go about proving which one he is? If he gets a town result on n1 then paranoid is off the table which would be a good thing but otherwise we're back to same situation we have now.