Assumed and confirmed are not the same. Neither for us, nor for scum.



That:

These 2 sentences are quite contradictory to one another, wouldn't you say?

I'm not a fan of no lynch this quickly, let's take a look at all possible candidates. If there's 3 scum we have 50% chance of scoring a hit even randomly so I assume our chances will be higher if we analyze a bit.

@dedo You said "This should be correct" when flub said me and dessimu were clean, did you know before? (Not an accusation, was just wondering why you were going after me a bit hard yesterday. We both were your suspects on d2 so I'm a bit surprised)

Why? I find your suspicion to be suspicious. Doing reading on you now.

Do you find trentonlf to be scummy now?

You were, yes.

You were cleared to me on Lift's flip. Your stance towards me was heavily defensive and dependent on Lift flipping scum so I would be "proven" as one by extension which in turn would clear you. If you are scum you would have known both Lift and I would flip as Town so your OMGUS would have made no sense at all. If Lift flipped scum I would have assumed that you were scum with him and bussed him given he was already a dead man walking and set me up in the process for Today.

I'm pretty sure that flub and Dessimu are not scum together. They are either enemies or both Town not knowing what the other is. I already spoke of how Dessimu was adamant on voting for flub for so long from the very beginning. Taking so strong position against a scum buddy is quite risky and could end up throwing a wrench in your operation for no reason. On the other hand we have flub's strong believe of Dessimu being Town looking for scum when there were decent reasons to suspect otherwise.

A scum flub vouching for 2 townies that were among the most likely lynch targets for Today when we have done nothing but mislynch so far seems crazy. It makes a lot more sense to push them over and go for the win Tomorrow.


If any of this is part of an elaborate ruse I'm fine with losing to such a masterful play.

@dedo Thanks for explaining! Shows me I still have a lot to learn.

Absolutely! People saved by power-roles are constantly told "Yeah, John tried to murder you in your sleep, but his attempt was foiled".


More than before, yes. I just realized what the potential repercussions of someone answering his question back then could have been and I don't like that. But when I said I believed he was Town I really did. The whole way he played and interacted with others felt like Town-Trent I've seen in the past.


These are just deductions based on what is happening. I've been terribly wrong in the past as well, it just looks a bit more solid this time around.

It's possible. But I may also be reading it right and I can't just ignore that possibility.

There are so many things about Leonard that, if given a thought of him being scum, look indeed very strange.



Keeps making his point that names are not important, sharing them gives nothing good. And then in the same post:
Explaining later:
I guess the probably suspicious thing here is how quickly Leo changed his opinion when just recently making a stance of against importance of our names.



How Leo came to hammer drealmer:
And on Day 2:
Speaking of "wow" and looking back, post 170 looks interesting (why particular interest of CSPVG's vote on Krypsyn?):
More interesting, how later Leo answers about asking about Krypsyn's vote:
Regarding drealmer's hammering:
I feel like I would be grasping at straws here, but vote on flub was not RVS, yet not based on reasons, only the deadline. I did not count it, but I think we still had some hours till the deadline (look how eagerly we discussed things when Lift's deadline was coming up). If Leo was town, I find it suspicious to condemn drealmer because his PM talk was strange (not wrong) and because weekend was coming up. And I don't like how Leo says "IMO he wasn't a bad lynch either" about drealmer. Because it was a bad lynch. Bad for town. And a good lynch for scum only.

I'm handsome not smart.

Everyone has checked in now, here is my reread of flubb:

Post #153 flubb votes for drealmer and remains there. Could be scum but hard to blame anyone for being on drealmer’s wagon.

….drealmer lynched…..

Post #262 – Votes for Hunter on D2, which would mean he visited Dessimu on N1. (I see no indication of any N0 actions.)

Post #365 – He will vote for Lift or Hunter, not Dessimu (also makes couple of posts to Dessimu and later says he thinks Dessimu is town)

……Lift lynched….

Today’s reveal would indicate he visited Hunter last night.


There are three possibilities:
1. flubb is town
2. flubb is scum (part of a team)
3. flubb is a third party

1. flubb is town - We have 3 confirmed town and a pool of 6 to find the remaining scum, probably 2-3. Flubb’s posts appear consistent, no obvious red flags

2. flubb is scum - There are a few possibilities:
A. Both Dessimu and Hunter are scum – that is one ballsy move and puts all their eggs in one basket

B. One of Dessimu/Hunter are scum – Less risky than A (this is assuming a 3 person scum team, if 2 person team, it is essentially the same as A.)

C. Both Dessimu and Hunter are town – flubb’s buddies (1-2) are in the other list

3. Flubb is third party - one hell of a ballsy play, not impossible but not likely, seems too improbable

If flubb is scum, he takes a big risk on there being a cop in the game. This might be mitigated a bit if scum has a role-cop and discovered a role that made a cop unlikely. flubb was the town arsonist after all, so I wouldn’t put it past him. But it’s still a big risk. If any shenanigans are going on here, I’d go for 2B or 2C. Gain the trust of 1-2 town and use them to help take out the remaining town.

There’s a possibility he’s scamming us, but it's a big gamble. I think he is telling the truth.


This.

Said the spider to the fly. ;-)

Continuing stuff about Leonard.


Just strange things on their own:

Leo later answered to trentonlf "Just to be clear - I am not scum". But maybe this answer was because this innocent "Yes" attracted unwanted attention? Add to that:
Proud of being slippery. Why slippery?
Sounds like a challenge
Why interested in CSPVG?

And Leo seems to "accidentally not pay attention to things". Admitting them when pointed out:
(speaking of "reason" for voting Leo voting flub, it was "flubbucket talks too much" (D1))



How Leo voted Lifthrasil (at the time of his vote, Leo took 4th place on Lifthrasil's wagon (some of you seem to draw opinion of place on wagon)):
After some of us pointed out that Lift's third reason on voting Hunter is wrong, Leo "re-discovered" same thing. Which, if thinking Leo to be scum, looks more like blending in with the crowd.
Together with the re-discovered truth, Leo makes another scum-fact about Lift.

Note: "sounds like town Lifthrasil". Yet:
Yet "no matter who we lynch". It bloody matters! We are hunting scum here, not just lynching for fun. Though Leo might be right in saying "no matter who we lynch", "who" being "Lifthrasil, Hunter, and Dessimu" since we are all town and Leo, as scum, would know that!

Also, why pushing bler to make a decision? Seems to me Leo is again, eager to make a lynch.



To sum up... Through the game, Leonard voted:
> flubbucket, because:
- deadline was approaching
- flub talks too much this game
> drealmer (hammered), because:
- deadline was approaching (even though there were about 12 hours till deadline)
- to avoid no-lynch
- because of strange PM talk
> Lifthrasil, because:
- of re-discovered thing about third reason in Lifthrasil's vote being wrong
- deadline approaching

And Leo made wrong and strange points, that:
- drealmer was a not bad lynch
- we can lynch anyone as long as it is not a no-lynch

Also, Leo made his point through the game that he could easily change his vote on any other wagon (which were made on flub, me, Hunter). Without providing reasons, why any of us look like mafia scum.


I think Leo is scum. Mafia trio would be cristigale, CSPVG and Leonard. It this case it is strange that Leo poked CSPVG twice (indirectly). But then, Leo never actually accused CSPVG of anything.

I am traveling today. If all goes as planned, I will check in tonight. If not, I'll be out until tomorrow afternoon.

Have a safe trip!