trentonlf: Welcome to the game! Please don't start talking PM information unless you have some information as to what happened last night. Who do you suspect and why?
The "PM information" was intentionally ambiguous, as far as it goes for now. Perhaps it means I have extensive information about one or more other players, and perhaps it is simply that I now know agent's alignment/role. If I do know something "extra" rest assured I will think carefully about when/how to share or breadcrumb it. But you wouldn't be you if you didn't have that objection.
As to whom I suspect, interestingly my top two suspects going to bed were cristi and lift. I'd even typed up an analysis of why I had Lift as the best candidate but decided to hold off actually going at anyone until today, when I'd had a chance to gauge others' reaction to my initial entry (both in the meaning of entrance to the game, and my first post). So I was intrigued to see cristi noting the key main point.
Generally, both had been lurking in plain sight. But Lift's vote was the most curious vote standing at the end of the day. It was made in post #63, and then remained without comment until the end of the day.
But I do think cristi soft-sells it a bit. Which perhaps makes a fine gambit to see how scum respond, so I don't think ipso facto she must be a buddy even if he's scum. But she then spins off him a bit easily without applying any actual pressure and moves on to other players. So was she town highlighting perceived scumminess, or a buddy pointing out a teammates biggest weakness and then brushing it off? It's been done. Hard to say.
That said, I would go a bit farther than where cristi took the analysis of Lift. (He's worth a full re-read, btw). The sticking point for me isn't JUST that he left an RVS vote stand until day's end, it's
1) that he was on the wagon that was the only alternative wagon to drealmer's. Imagine, hypothetically, drealmer had claimed 'cop' instead of vanilla. What happens then? A number of responses are possible of course.
But on a tight timeline, the most likely scenario is that the vote swings to flub. Our town dreads a no lynch on D1 like the plague and flub was the path of least resistance. Had Lift left an RVS vote out there on, say, Krypsyn who had no other votes, it's less meaningful. But flub was actually at L-4 and a pretty juicy backup option if the main wagon fell apart.
2) He barely engaged drealmer other than a bit of an "Ole!" encouraging him to claim his name and distaste. Not exactly hard-hitting analysis of the primary wagon, which looks worse given that he was neither justifying his own vote on flub, nor even rallying people to the wagon he was heading. He seemed quite content just to let the main wagon roll by with as little meaningful engagement as possible, and then...
3) He starts D2 by saying he will analyze who was "pushing too hard" on drealmer. Even though he was sitting on an alternative wagon with RVS justification. Which strikes me as a bit too on the nose. And considering my hypothesis that there might well have been 0-1 scum on the wagon, it's also a very nice gambit to focus attention on who was on the (very viable) wagon, rather than who was off it.
While few things in reality fit together so nicely, at least from a theoretical viewpoint, a lot of pieces here would fit very well if Lift were scum.
In any case, I need to get out the door to work and get ready for my budget meeting, but from an analytical point of view, Lift's case is the most curious to me if one digs beyond superficiality. In any case, when I do cast my vote, I think it will most likely be for Lift or cristi, and for the moment I'm inclined to at least give cristi some benefit of the doubt.
Though I'd still like to hear HSL's analysis of cristi.