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General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted November 21, 2015
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bler144: On that point, you never answered my prior question, but you seemed to be implying we were all crazy for buying Leonard's claim. Correct? His role claim, at least for the moment, appears to hold water. His alignment is still in question.
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bler144: Is it possible to make P1na-adalia-Leonard-Hijack work in theory?...yeah, I guess. But I'm not feeling it, personally. Can I sell you on a P1na-adalia-Leonard-Ix theory?
I found leonard's claim far too easy, convenient and unlikely to be true coming from a player I thought was scummy. He had the entire claim laid out in front of him even down to the choice of target. I highly doubt we found that on the second day, in a sixteen player game.
Heck, I even thought we had a nice little counterclaim, but no one bothered to see it.

As far as orchestration - it's exactly this sort of thing right here in the quotes above - and you're far from the only one doing it. You have leonard as scum, even after his claim and then call me out when I call his claim BS. The guy's scum.

Speculation:

Scum is pushing hard on wagons on their own players / insinuating scumminess of their own team, very aggressively because they know they can back out and stall them before town reacts. They gain town points by being "all in" on scummy players, they dance in and out on their teammates and then at the deadline will push on a random person.

Probably someone they've been trying to bait:

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Leonard03: Called Ix jumping on, but what reason do you have Bookwyrm?
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Bookwyrm627: *Don't bait Ix, don't bait Ix, don't bait Ix...*
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Bookwyrm627: 4) Unvote Leonard
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Leonard03: Oh snap! What Ix gonna do, he said he would switch to you, but my wagons a rollin'!
I AM genuinely confused about adalia though - but I will not be voting to lynch him. I'm more curious if the people voting to lynch him are really voting to lynch him at this point.
Posted November 21, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: Scum is pushing hard on wagons on their own players / insinuating scumminess of their own team, very aggressively because they know they can back out and stall them before town reacts. They gain town points by being "all in" on scummy players, they dance in and out on their teammates and then at the deadline will push on a random person.
can you speculate on who those players might be?/you suspect them to be if your speculations are correct? or is it a speculative theory that you're waiting to see who fits it if/when it happens?
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Ixamyakxim: Probably someone they've been trying to bait:
care to speculate on that further?
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Ixamyakxim: I AM genuinely confused about adalia though - but I will not be voting to lynch him.
Why exactly do you think he's not scummy enough to vote?

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Ixamyakxim: I'm more curious if the people voting to lynch him are really voting to lynch him at this point.
guaranteed yes from me. of course whether you believe me or not is up to you.
Posted November 21, 2015
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dedoporno: On the other hand flub was all over Yog on D1 and went back onto him on D2. Unlike Leonard flub's vote is consistent (technically there isn't an official situation change regarding Yog, even though one can make quite likely assumptions).

And most importantly, if HijacK is scum and jailed by his scum buddy for protection - why would he tell us?
On the first point, that is a good observation. When you frame it like that, I see what you mean.

On the last point, I'd already argued most of what you did on the flaw at lumping Hijack into this scenario, at least based on what we know, but had missed the "why would he tell us?" I had an instinctual response, but then WIFOMed myself.

So...worth pondering, but while I'm not clearing anybody, Hijack is pretty far down my list of most to least likely deserving of scrutiny. If both adalia and Leonard flip scum, then sure, it's worth revisiting.

Should be interesting to see how the rest of this day plays out. Am starting to question my old gut read of my top 3 order-wise. Tactical read still hasn't changed much though. For better or worse.
Posted November 21, 2015
Ix, you seriously think Leonard is scum, but Adalia is sooooooo town you won't vote for him?

How do you put that together?
Posted November 21, 2015
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dedoporno: @Ix, how does Wyrm look now?
Still scummy.

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Ixamyakxim: I AM genuinely confused about adalia though - but I will not be voting to lynch him.
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drealmer7: Why exactly do you think he's not scummy enough to vote?

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Ixamyakxim: I'm more curious if the people voting to lynch him are really voting to lynch him at this point.
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drealmer7: guaranteed yes from me. of course whether you believe me or not is up to you.
I was never convinced of the reasons to vote for him in the first place (I had no problem with his hammer vote) and I thought he breadcrumbed some possible antiscum stuff earlier. At this point I'm not sure what I think beyond knowing I won't be one to push his wagon. And I've listed the two people I find most scummy. Beyond that it's too much speculation for me at the moment and I think if I start listing off "suspects" and "could be, maybe, if" that does little more than confuse things too much for no good reason.

And I do believe you about the yes. I also don't think you're scum.
Posted November 21, 2015
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bler144: Hijack is pretty far down my list of most to least likely deserving of scrutiny.
I'm not very good at the ins-and-outs of this game yet regarding roles and claims and implications and their meanings, etc. So, please bear with me while I try to figure out your position/ask you about it in posit form.

If you don't think HijacK is scum it is because: you haven't seen anything scummy from him? you believe he was jailed? (any other reasons?)

if you believe he was jailed: who do you think jailed him? do you believe leonard jailed him? or that someone else did who is not claiming to have done so and leonard is using that to his advantage to fake-claim the jailing?

If you believe leonard did the jailing: do you then believe leonard is scum having jailed a townie? why would he do that? to be able to claim doing so and look town? seems like an odd choice, no? doesn't it make more sense for him to protect his vulnerable scum-buddy? (if hijack wasn't his scum-buddy, wouldn't he have protected someone else?)

if you believe someone else did the jailing: are they not coming forward and claiming it to stay off scum's radar? and they're confident enough that leonard will be lynched soon enough anyway and so don't need to tell everyone he's false-claiming?
Posted November 21, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: I found leonard's claim far too easy, convenient and unlikely to be true coming from a player I thought was scummy.
Heck, I even thought we had a nice little counterclaim, but no one bothered to see it.

As far as orchestration - it's exactly this sort of thing right here in the quotes above - and you're far from the only one doing it. You have leonard as scum, even after his claim and then call me out when I call his claim BS. The guy's scum.

Scum is pushing hard on wagons on their own players / insinuating scumminess of their own team, very aggressively because they know they can back out and stall them before town reacts. They gain town points by being "all in" on scummy players, they dance in and out on their teammates and then at the deadline will push on a random person.
If there was a counter-claim that someone else blocked Hijack I missed it. Don't suppose you'd want to highlight it, or the breadcrumbing you think adalia was doing?

On Leonard's claim, I'm not sure it's all that convenient given the number of people speculating that it was at least possible both jailer/blockers are scum. I remember in yogs game, I was town role cop and I crapped my pants when RW flipped town role cop dawn of D2. Claiming a role that may just incite the mob based on existing prejudice is never convenient. Now, "Doctor" is convenient, as long as no one counter-claims.

I won't even go back into the logic of your view of yogs' role/soft claim D1. In any case, you may well be right about Leonard being scum, but if he is scum, I think it fairly likely he's scum jailer based on what's on the table. If he's town, he's almost certainly town jailer. I don't see the rationale on which you're building some case that he's lying about his role, much less that doing so would be convenient.

As for your speculation, come on, don't just hint at what you mean - argue it through! That helps one actually theory-test.

Glossing over why scum would want to attract a whole bunch of attention to each other (as opposed to the time tested method of lurking), and that they don't actually get any "credit" for towniness unless their play results in a scum lynch...

for your theory to even work you'd need a scum team that was at minimum 5 players and arguably 6-7. The other logical problem is that you'd seem to have adalia on this "orchestrating" scum team, but off it for other reasons. So if you think adalia is town, wouldn't you have to acknowledge that town can get on/off wagons as well as scum with no orchestration required?

We may well vote Leonard today when all is said and done, but your arguments are ...interesting. If you are right, at least personally I think you're right for wrong reasons.
Posted November 21, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: Heck, I even thought we had a nice little counterclaim, but no one bothered to see it.
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bler144: If there was a counter-claim that someone else blocked Hijack I missed it. Don't suppose you'd want to highlight it, or the breadcrumbing you think adalia was doing?
^ + bump for bler
Posted November 21, 2015
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bler144: If there was a counter-claim that someone else blocked Hijack I missed it. Don't suppose you'd want to highlight it, or the breadcrumbing you think adalia was doing?
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drealmer7: ^ + bump for bler
Heh, thanks. I hadn't started typing yet - was waiting for the timer so as to not post by accident.

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drealmer7: If you don't think HijacK is scum it is because: you haven't seen anything scummy from him? you believe he was jailed? (any other reasons?)

if you believe he was jailed: who do you think jailed him? do you believe leonard jailed him? or that someone else did who is not claiming to have done so and leonard is using that to his advantage to fake-claim the jailing?

If you believe leonard did the jailing: do you then believe leonard is scum having jailed a townie? why would he do that? to be able to claim doing so and look town? seems like an odd choice, no? doesn't it make more sense for him to protect his vulnerable scum-buddy? (if hijack wasn't his scum-buddy, wouldn't he have protected someone else?)

if you believe someone else did the jailing: are they not coming forward and claiming it to stay off scum's radar? and they're confident enough that leonard will be lynched soon enough anyway and so don't need to tell everyone he's false-claiming?
There is a ton to pay attention to in this game, so I have no doubt I'm missing things. If others have an argument for why Hijack is scummy, I'm willing to read it, but he's not in my top half which I'd describe as: scummy to curious. Doesn't mean I'm saying think he's town (might, might not), just that I don't see anything that raises flags compared to a whoooole bunch of other people.

Hijack claimed early in D2 to have been jailed. I have no reason to doubt that. Leonard is claiming to have done it. I don't have any information that suggests the contrary to that either.

Could Leonard be fake-claiming his role and/or action? Possible. Though it was risky in a number of ways - perhaps he was tracked last night and someone knows he didn't visit Hijack at all. Perhaps there is a counter-claim. And even if he buys time he's tied down to a role claim that can potentially be verified/falsified in a number of ways. If he's fibbing, at best it buys him a day.

So for now I'm going with Occam's razor - the available evidence suggests he made the play he claims to have made, barring evidence to the contrary.

Why would scum Leonard make that play? He has to block someone. After Hijack's claim last game, he's not going to be able to spin "town jailer who didn't jail anyone N1," ironically even if he is town jailer. There were only a few other players he could've blocked to spin it as a town action, which applies really regardless of Leonard's alignment, I think.

I've already laid out why I don't buy the P1na/adalia/Leonard/Hijack theory, as a whole (927), and the whole doesn't really work if you take any of those parts out since it was built on assumptions deriving from how their actions all fit together.

So the rest is speculation that may be interesting, but I think distracts from today, and can be re-evaluated D3. Only get to lynch 1 per day, in any case.
Posted November 21, 2015
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dedoporno: And most importantly, if HijacK is scum and jailed by his scum buddy for protection - why would he tell us?
Revealing that one is blocked/jailed during the Night is pretty much the only pro-town action. With potential trackers and watchers about, it is the correct choice. Regardless of HijacK's alignment, it would be the proper thing to do, regardless of his alignment.

Even if Leonard03 did jail HijacK, which is at least plausible, I am still fairly certain he is scum. Using a jail on HijacK, regardless of HijacK's alignment, does make sense regardless of whether or not they are scumbuddies. It gives a good alibi if there is a watcher investigating HijacK (which is also plausible, if that role exists in the game), and also if Leonard03 were to be tracked (which is plausible because he was high on the scum-list of some folks, including me). It is an easy "hide in plain sight" method.

Although I really would rather Leonard03, after mulling it over last night, I think it is time to up the heat on adaliabooks. Leonard03 has claimed, now it is your turn, adaliabooks.

Unvote: Leonard03
Vote: adaliabooks

This puts him at L-2. I would ask nobody else vote for him until he claims. If he is scum, I don't want him, or one of his scumbuddies, to quick hammer.
Posted November 21, 2015
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yogsloth: Ix, you seriously think Leonard is scum, but Adalia is sooooooo town you won't vote for him?

How do you put that together?
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bler144: for your theory to even work you'd need a scum team that was at minimum 5 players and arguably 6-7. The other logical problem is that you'd seem to have adalia on this "orchestrating" scum team, but off it for other reasons. So if you think adalia is town, wouldn't you have to acknowledge that town can get on/off wagons as well as scum with no orchestration required?
I don't think it would require that many.

And this is why I personally am having such a problem with adalia today. Especially because on one level I do have him town (or at least didn't really suspect him of being scum). That's why I'm basically "recusing" myself from his wagon and very publically doing it. If others feel that strongly one way or the other about him, I'd love to know. But if you (general you, not you in particular bler LOL) are expecting / hoping for me to push / hammer him don't count on it.
Posted November 21, 2015
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bler144: .............<snip>............

We may well vote Leonard today when all is said and done, but your arguments are ...interesting. If you are right, at least personally I think you're right for wrong reasons.
Who is We??
Posted November 21, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: And this is why I personally am having such a problem with adalia today. Especially because on one level I do have him town (or at least didn't really suspect him of being scum). That's why I'm basically "recusing" myself from his wagon and very publically doing it. If others feel that strongly one way or the other about him, I'd love to know. But if you (general you, not you in particular bler LOL) are expecting / hoping for me to push / hammer him don't count on it.
In theory it wouldn't require that many, but in the scenario at hand it does.

I have no issue with you voting/not voting I'm just trying to clarify what your argument is, since ultimately that can be analyzed and discussed later more than a vote can.

You could choose to stay off adalia's wagon for a variety of reasons, not all of which would make you town. Same applies to my own position. WHY we do what we do is as or more important than what we did.

I do agree with Krypsyn that we don't want to make any decision on hammering a vs. L until we can see what we're actually working with.


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flubbucket: Who is We??
Everyone who's involved and not just hanging out on yogs' wagon.
Posted November 21, 2015
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Leonard03: [...]

What is stopping us from doing that now?

[...]
bler144 already addressed this, but since you seem eager, why don't you start?


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Leonard03: [...]

What is stopping us from doing that now?

"Without raising any objections while they are forming" - You must be kidding.
My vote was not certain to leads us to a No-Lynch, at least I did not think it was. That last is just not true, I want to end the day with a vote on the person who I find the scummiest.

What I meant is that at the end of the day if there is not a person being lynched, there is no possible way for us to win.

That's because I have suspects, but I need to figure out which one I should vote for. I don't have a lot of time either, and I spend a lot of it responding point by point to you. You should be very happy! :P

I do have things to say to whats going on! Ok, I don't have a finger in every pie, but I do contribute where I see something. Hmph, you are one to talk about taking time to cast a vote. Though I won't deny I take a little while.
When I say "I haven't seen anything that pings my scum meter" I'm saying I have not seen any slips that make me almost certain someone is scum. It doesn't mean there aren't little things.
I'm not holding anything back. If you want to see something similiar to what's happening right now, check Vitek's game. I'll bet I played pretty similarly then.
I don't think it's fair to give me trouble for not bringing enough discussion. What about flub? He has spent most of the game saying how terrible yogs is. Are you really saying I've done less than him? Have I posted tons of new ideas? No, but if you expect me too you will be disappointed.

I've talked to people. And voiced my ideas and stuff. If you have re-read my and decided I haven't there isn't anything I can say that will really convince you otherwise is there?

[...]

Still there flub?
Here we go!
I'm the town jailer ya'll. I locked up HijacK last night. My reasoning was that it was seemed likely that he was at in some sort of danger from the prod so if he was town, no harm in a little extra protection. And if he was scum, then he would be blocked. Win -win.
Let's see. P1na got his first three votes on Nov 13, after you mentioned him lurking. The next day you made your "I would vote him to avoid no-lynch" post and voted for Krypsyn. Was that an objection? If it was, no-one caught it.
You first stated that you think it's a mistake to lynch him in your post #524, which was after he was already at L-1. Is that objecting "while a wagon is forming"?
Your very next post is the one about adaliabooks also wanting a drink - is this objecting?
Then you go and switch your vote from Krypsyn to flubbucket, a player who had a single joke-vote, making sure to explain yourself in advance for the "dirty looks" you expected to get for doing so - perhaps this is what you call objecting?
And in post #558 you claim to be "tryin to stop us from a mislynch", a post that came after Lynch had already been achieved.

So, sorry, I don't see how your actions invalidated, or even contradict, what I said.

bler144 already covered the "always lynch" part, think about it.

I'm afraid that bler144 also covered your defence regarding your "scum-hunting", but I'll address two things.

I may take my time to vote, but I'm not the one screaming "We can't have No-Lynch!!" to the skies and back, and then sit on my thumbs and do nth about it.

As for bringing flubbucket into this, I really don't like this sort of defence - "hey, give me a break, look at that other guy, isn't he worse than me?". Even now, you're just dodging - you say you have suspects, and have observed little things, yet spend all your time defending yourself in a way that makes us come back and question you more.

On a side note, this part reminded me that flubbucket is indeed not getting flak from anyone, probably due to people attributing his absence and almost obsession-like focus on yogsloth to his playstyle, which ironically seems to be the reason he's so hard on yogsloth.

But now you've made a claim that may or may not be true, or more likely be half-true, which doesn't clear you but has given people pause due to the implications of it. Looks like it saved your skin for one more Day.

Reply to bler144 coming shortly, then have to catch up with what happened today.
Posted November 21, 2015
Ok, sorry people. I just lost everything I was writing in the past half hour, so you will have to stay tuned.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)