skeletonbow: There could be people that are full of crap, there's no way to validate anyone's claims really. I got 2 freebies so far (Capsized and Sir You are Being Hunted) on the first day, nothing since, but I went through the first 2 Insomnia sales in 2013 and 2014 without winning any freebies either. It's random chance and completely within the mathematics of things. Look up probability theory on wikipedia.
FearfulSymmetry: Well, I've given four keys away and I got two more for myself, so I've been supremely lucky this time around, but in other sales I've never scored a freebie. This sale was the first time for me. I don't see any reason why someone would want to lie about it, though?
There isn't any benefit to lying about it really. We know that people are getting free games and that multiple free games are possible so I guess everyone will interpret that however works for them in the end. The current freebie setup is smoother and more transparent than in the past too.
I keep trying for freebies still also but the math is really against winning and I already got two so I doubt I'll get another, but it's possible I could too so why not try right? :P