Honsoku: The recession does not appear to be driving up prices, as just using post recession years (2007-2013) gives a growth rate of 2.03%. So the recession appears to be restraining prices (which runs counter to your implied concern with the 'subsidies increase tuition' study results). However, there does appear to have been a shift from private towards public as public grew 2.95% while private only grew 1%.
I'm going to be a bit of a dick here and assume you have some backgrounds in business/econ but don't actually work in doing research in this area, since your analysis can be derived from drawing one's knowledge of the higher ed market from Forbes/USA Today/HuffPo, and not, say, reading Andrew Gillen and other primary/secondary research.
On the quote above, I was actually talking about the recession's impact on borrowing (students borrowing), not on tuition. You're the one who's conflating the two and now saying I said something I did not actually say.
If anything, the evidence you're citing runs counter to your own argument. Loan eligibility increased significantly in the 07-08 year. Pell increased far in excess of its typical pace in 09-10. So two of the biggest increases in the largest aid programs, per your numbers, coincide with a lower-than-typical increase in tuition cost.