Why?

It's possible there are two cyborgs (full analysis of possibilities coming tonight (European time) when I don't have to rush off to work). Do not put anyone at L-2, or if we're in that scenario, then they might coordinate a quickhammer for the win.

I find it more likely that we're dealing with a lone mutant.

^EBWOP: ...but this is not something we should rely on.

I think I support a mason reveal, but am interested in bookwyrm's argumentation for why not.

Oh, and flub, if you want to go and explain that vote, then by all means, be my guest...

The combined implications of Trent disclaiming mason and Flub voting Gogtrial. If there is a recruiter left, then those two factoids would really screw with their recruitment targeting.

It would also mean I should probably just give up ever bothering to try and predict the game state or read anyone ever again.

However, Gogtrial makes a very valid point about leaving someone at L-2.

I will refresh before posting.

Of the remaining players he is the one I'm most suspicious of.....one of two.

Are you male or female? I seem to recall you saying female previously, but Flub is making me question my memory.

Who is the other?

Could you run us through the possible events that lead to 2 Mutants?
I've run the numbers, and didn't come up with any scenario where we may be facing 2 Mutants.


So you say now, but the way you worded it wasn't clear (to me).



What about my other question? Did you miss it, or aren't you going to answer it?



[emphasis added]

Elaborate? Also the same regarding Bookwyrm627's question.

Do you consider it likely that there's a recruitment still in play?
Does the risk of that outweigh the risk posed by the larger pool of suspects to pick from for town, and the inability for the final mason to confirm themselves if scum NKs a mason tonight?

We heard Krypsyn likes votes, but Krypsyn turned out to be icky scum, so we're collectively refraining from casting them now.

What causes that suspicion? And perhaps more usefully, what makes the other three players non-suspicious?

I don't recall I ever actually stated this, but "he" is correct.


I promised analysis, and that's coming, but it's going to be a couple of hours still, as I still have real life interruptions to deal with right now, and after that need to 'translate' from my shorthand notes to something legible and probably figure out formatting (as I don't think indenting will be preserved very well - let me test here).

testing, this can be ignored:
test long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
=> indented one
-> indented two
=> indented one long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
-> indented two long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
___ => indented one
________ -> indented two
___ => indented one long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
________ -> indented two long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.

This was a statement on the maximum number of scum that could possibly still be in the game when factoring initial number of conversions and the number of each kind of scum flip. Nothing else was factored for this particular hard cap on the possible number of scum. We obviously don't have 2 cyborgs and 2 mutants still in the game.

When factoring the deaths, I don't see how we can have more than one mutant currently present.

----------

Mutants
It is very highly unlikely that mutants have any recruitment shots left.
-Hunter accounts for one shot, whether he used it or it was used on him.
-On the night Adalia died, either he failed a recruitment, or a mutant succeeded at recruiting, or mutants passed up their action (since only a mutant died).

Adalia was going to be lynched anyway, so I see little reason to skip the kill if they weren't going to recruit, so I'm guessing they are now out of recruitment, if any mutants are still alive.


Cyborgs
It is possible that a surviving cyborg has one recruitment shot.
-Cyborg recruits on N1, mutant dies because of failed recruitment
-Cyborg makes a kill on N2
-Krypsyn, either the N1 recruiter OR the recruitee, is lynched D3
-Cyborg shoots Adalia.

Hm. Seems odd to shoot Adalia since he's pretty much guaranteed to be the next Day's lynch. They might hold their shot and recruitment back, though.

Mmm. Hard to say whether a recruit shot is still in play. I will say that if I were scum with a recruitment shot last Night (unless I was in Adalia's specific position), then I would have saved my recruitment shot and tried to get through the Day. I probably wouldn't have killed anyone, either. One mislynch on whomever and I could recruit for the win.

I'd weigh the risk of a recruitment remaining at least as high as the chance of two cyborgs remaining, especially if the masons claim.

I didn't miss it. I thought I'll do an analysis of all the possible scum combinations before I answer that, but looks like gogtrial is going to write it.

I don't see any possibility for the "or" in my statement to be inclusive (i.e. by D3 there were 2 mutants and 2 cyborgs). So it's an exclusive "or" (either... or...). Can you show a scenario where it's not the case?

I will refresh before posting

I'm Not Saying......at the moment.

To answer both.....


It should be read as less suspicious. I never said non-suspicious.

Hrm.

Boop it. Some days one just needs to take a chance.

Vote Gogtrial

My two cents, not even sure my thoughts are even worth that much though, are that ZFR and gogtrial are the two remaining Masons. I’d be surprised if they are not the Masons, and I’m basing this off of their reactions today to everything going on and what I’ve gotten from their play over the entire game so far. So I am willing to vote any of the other three players and will follow the lead of what the two of them decide to do.