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Leonard03: I never made my "Bah" post!

Best of luck town.
We Bah! with you, fallen friend.

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cristigale: I’m still fairly suspicious that this was a slip. He’s been really quiet since then.
For me the strange thing here was how trentonlf never really pushed anyone and now tried to rise a fast lynch.

For a Town person such act is too eager, a sloppy one, given the fact that there are 4-5 other Town players who as of yet, are practically certain only of the current flips and trust no breathing soul. In other words, highly unlikely that other Town members would jump on this proposition to lynch one random person just because one of latest highest suspects says "Well, I am Town (Terminator)!" and rules himself out as legit.

If trentonlf is scum, however, I can see him try and invoke a fast, premature lynch if enough Town players would get caught in momentum. For at the moment Mafia doesn't need to pretend their "townyness" too much - they seek a misslynch. And a fast one of that. It is much safer for them to lurk, to wait, to get involved only if poked and asked to.

Plus, while claiming Town Vanilla (still talking about trentonlf) can not be discarded as bollocks, it is also rather convenient. I am not bought by trentonlf's claim and I suggest to treat him with a moderate degree of suspicion.
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Dessimu: I am not bought by trentonlf's claim and I suggest to treat him with a moderate degree of suspicion.
Every one of those 4 should be treated with a high level of suspicion!


Now, let me expand on what cristi tried to work on a bit earlier.

CSPVG has been at L-3 for ages now. If there are 3 scum left they need a mislynch Today and a successful NK Tonight to win. If CSPVG wasn't scum why haven't they piled on the wagon already and gunned down the Doctor already? This should be the safest coarse of action they could take right now. This makes me think CSPVG is either scum and they are the rest are trying to save him and still play to win Tonight since they can't win a prolonged game or there are less than 3 scum left and they can't do this just yet.

I feel like voting as well. Are you guys fine with putting CSPVG at L-2 now? I won't hold my breath on HSL and trent providing some useful information in time since their RL things can very well serve as an excuse not to regardless of whether it's intentional or not.
At this point I see you all rushing to off me a few hours before the deadline. I don't really know what to say anymore, other than I feel that I've acted in a manner which I would say is not, nor was it ever, scummy (but, of course, I would say that).

My preferred target for offing today would actually be either Dessimu or flubbucket, but I don't see anyone buying into this at this stage. Even I am starting to doubt my paranoia.

So, I'm going to have to at least try and make a counter argument - if you kill me, you'll just be killing a Town Vanilla, which wouldn't be so bad if it were not for the fact that we're this late into the game - which not even I am fully confident in making. Which is not to say that I do not find the only other person I'm willing to vote for troubling in some ways, but rather that he is not my first pick.

Out of the proposed 'unknown' four, as I have said before, I find trenton to be the most suspect. This is because I know myself to Town Vanilla and think both HSL and cristi to be town, more likely than not. This leaves trenton. I had my suspicions about him earlier in the day, but did not have much to go on other than the fact that I felt his play was inconsistent with what I regard as his usual play. When I confronted him about this, I feel he intentionally toned himself down, and has subsequently disappeared from the game almost entirely (this could be explained by RL issues, but I also feel that he has been more of a lurker than he usually is).

So, Vote: trentonlf.
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CSPVG: My preferred target for offing today would actually be either Dessimu or flubbucket, but I don't see anyone buying into this at this stage. Even I am starting to doubt my paranoia.
So you want to lynch the Cop or the Doctor who both of which have been confirmed by 2 independent sources?

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CSPVG: if you kill me, you'll just be killing a Town Vanilla, which wouldn't be so bad if it were not for the fact that we're this late into the game - which not even I am fully confident in making.
Yet you are concerned we are lynching a Town Vanilla because we are at the end-game?

How does this make sense?
Back to finishing my re-read on CSPVG and making my post.
OK then, finished my re-read on CSPVG. I'll start from a bit earlier as there was something that stood out to me, but didn't get the chance to address it in full back then.

In his post #244 he said [emphasis added]:
I wonder if Krypsyn's PM contained both a real and a fake name, or if he merely stole one of the names from someone's dislike (the former is much more likely than the latter).
I asked him about this in my post #255, and he replied in his post #285:
I did say that the former possibility was more likely than the latter possibility.
The point behind my question was that Krypsyn turned out to be drealmer7's dislike, who was the very last to reveal hi dislike. Krypsyn had already introduced himself as "Dr. Heather Ursula Tublink" before this particular name was mentioned, hence it was impossible for him to have stolen it. It didn't make sense to me to even consider the possibility. This in turn made me wonder if perhaps CSPVG was busy in another game-related thread where Night actions and Day plans are discussed.

Then he continued what seemed like an endless back-and-forth with Dessimu. I understand his desire to defend himself, and I'll give him that Dessimu does indeed try to take anything someone said that may mean from little to nth, and turn it into some sort "evidence" of that person's scumminess, if he thinks there's something there (and I've told him as much).
Other than this, can't say I see anything in all of this, it was still very early in the game.

He appeared to quick-hammer Lifthrasil (according to dedoporno it was like 9min after I placed my vote on him). The timing in and of itself is not that much of a bothering point (though dedoporno made a good point when replying to Leaonard03 about it), the arguments he used to hammer make it questionable, however (post #440).
He hammered Lifthrasil as if D2's lynch depended on his vote, and his vote alone. But was it so? He had no firm stance on the matter of No-Lynch, No-Lynch was not a sure thing at that point, and he was not exactly convinced about Lifthrasil being a good choice (post #429). And said that he might have been a bit quick to do so, only after it became a topic of discussion and reason to suspect him (post #636).

When D3 started, he was the first to post, and the first thing he had to say was [emphasis added]:
So, unless someone has something to reveal or a compelling argument to make, I still feel pretty strongly about the whole Dessimu thing
And when flubbucket made a revelation that should at least give him some pause, and make him re-evaluate his view on others and the game overall, he kept doubting him, and making a case of "testing if he's lying", mainly because he had absolutely no read on him (post #506) and his view on Dessimu (post #534).
What I find interesting is that he never considered the possibility of flubbucket telling the truth regarding his role and reads, and that perhaps something else might be in play if one of his reads were misleading. Like him perhaps not being a sane Cop or a Godfather, and see if/how thing fit together. Interestingly, he never reacted to the latter when brought up by others (@dedporno, have not forgotten your question, will get to it later).

He never really participated in the discussions around Leonard03 and his lynch, other than what he said in his post #604. He also said he'd hammer him closer to the deadline, but never did. Which reminded me a bit of how he went about drealmer7. Did he hold off because of the D2 quick-hammer and the suspicion it brought on him?

He made a comment regarding trentonlf early on (post #285), but based on posts #384, #388 (that's bler144 post to which he never presented any counter-arguments) and #534, his view by the end of D3 was:
[...] have leveled out into what I expect a Town-Trent to look like.
But when he became Lynch-candidate #1 on D4, his previous view on trentonlf (post #738) suddenly became [emphasis added]:
When I confronted him about this, I feel he intentionally toned himself down, [...]
and he uses this to justify the rest of his argument that led to his vote on trentonlf [emphasis added]:
[...] has subsequently disappeared from the game almost entirely (this could be explained by RL issues, but I also feel that he has been more of a lurker than he usually is).
I understand that anyone would defend themselves, and would try to make a case against someone else, and I would see it in a different light if he had said that trentonlf's lurking made him rethink his earlier assessment of him. But this sounds like backtracking from his previous view, and attempting to exploit an opportunity to shift attention to the one of the unconfirmed players with the best chance he sees of getting lynched in his place. More so with his argument against his own lynch being [emphasis added]:
So, I'm going to have to at least try and make a counter argument - if you kill me, you'll just be killing a Town Vanilla, which wouldn't be so bad if it were not for the fact that we're this late into the game - which not even I am fully confident in making.
when, as dedoporno already pointed out, he's comfortable lynching either one of our key-roles to winning.

Last, but not least, and as others have already pointed out, the fact that he's been sitting at L-3 since early D4 may well indicate that he's Mafia, and his buddies are reluctant to bus him.

I will hold off on placing a vote as I have a few more re-reads to do.
The group were finally discussing things, taking positions, sorting information. Were there bluffs being made? Were there really no LAMISTs among them?

Suddenly, the Dean stood up right and yelled: "I AM NOT related to any evil wizards! That is slander! Slander!"

The she sat back down again abruptly, whatever demons were plaguing her psyche apparently silent once more.

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VOTE COUNT

CSPVG (2) flub, Dessimu
trent (1) CSPVG

Not voting: trent, cristi, Hunter, HSL, dedo

CSPVG is closest to lynch at L-3

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Deadline in about 28 hours.
Post edited March 19, 2016 by yogsloth
Back home and resting, going to try to do as little as possible this weekend. It's funny how a vacation can wear you out LOL Had a great time, but sure am glad to be home.

@ Dessimu I was not trying to rush a lynch. After Leonard flipped town it left 4 of us who were suspect still. I know I'm town and if this is a standard game of mafia that would mean the other 3 suspects are mafia or a neutral of some sort. There is the possibility of one of them actually being town also, but I think that is unlikely. That's why I asked if anyone had any thoughts were before we lynched someone.
We're approaching the 24 hour mark. Currently, CSPVG seems to have a lot of suspicion. I don't think anyone (besides CSPVG) has expressed support of him being town.

@all - If we lynch CSPVG, what is the consensus for my night action?

I see one of three possibilities.
1. shoot
2. don't shoot
3. shoot only if CSPVG flips town

If CSPVG flips scum, I don't think my shot is all that vital. Unless our confirmed town agree on a target, I'd lean toward holding the shot.

On the off chance that CSPVG flips town, my shot may be needed to keep us in the game. My choice would be to shoot trent, but again, I'll go with confirmed consensus. What are your thoughts?
Shoot: Krypsyn
Sorry, had to work on a deliverable, will get back to my re-reads now, and hope I won't have to get back to working before finishing them.



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flubbucket: Shoot: Krypsyn
I don't think that'll be enough if he became a zombie.
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cristigale: On the off chance that CSPVG flips town, my shot may be needed to keep us in the game. My choice would be to shoot trent, but again, I'll go with confirmed consensus. What are your thoughts?
I made some calculations and if I'm not gravely mistaken (and things aren't a lot more shady than it looks like) shooting trent if CSPVG flips Town seems like an OK idea. There are scenarios in which it's the other way around but in these scenarios we have already lost so there is no point considering them. And as I said before - I'm willing to lose to such plays.
Regarding cristigale - she seems quite consistent since my early read of her, and quite inline with how I remember her operating as Town, but it could also be that she's adjusted her play (more) after my initial reading of her.
She made good analysis of players, but that's one of her strong points regardless of alignment, and she's smart and careful enough to not make any obvious mistakes, if she's Mafia.

Her claim is a good one, in either case - if true, it could come handy, and perhaps even seal the win for us; if false, she's more than smart enough to have come up with a claim that makes us reluctant to lynch her, especially at this point in the game.
Overall, she hasn't raised any additional suspicion for me, other than how I've become naturally inclined to suspect her, which still doesn't really mean anything; she may well have become better at fooling me.

The timing of her last post (#744) feels a bit rushed, after all we still have about 24hrs till deadline, but given it's the weekend, perhaps it's prudent to plan early regarding N4, now that we have a chance to get on the offensive.

As things stand, I don't think we have the luxury of lynching her, and she knows it, if it was a false-claim. But there are ways to test her claim during the Night, so if she lied she won't live long to enjoy it.


Off to re-read trentonlf.
Not going into any details about D1 and the flavour-names talk, think we've beaten that horse to death already, and then some.

On D2, both trentonlf and CSPVG seemed to entertain the idea that the attacker of the person that survived on N1 may not have been the SK. I wanted them to clarify back then, but as I started getting swamped with things in the physical world, I missed my chance as the game moved on. Was it something I misunderstood? Does it have any bearing on anything, especially now?

I can't say that trentonlf appeared more aggressive than his usual Town-self to me, as CSPVG said. Then again, I think I've not played with a Mafia-trentonlf before (the All-Mafia game doesn't really count, as we all pretended to be good little townies when none of us were), so don't really know how good trentonlf is at passing as Town, and he may well have fooled me, especially after the two things that follow.

dedoporno may be onto something with the role-fishing accusation - I didn't think much of this early "speak up if you were injured but survived", as he added the usual conditions he does in cases he's discussing/asking for info about night-actions, and his responses to dedoporno seemed like his usual self, but the way he ended the argument seemed a bit evasive.

Then there's post #669 which cristigale sees as a potential slip. Not sure I'd call it that. If he's Town as he claims, it makes sense for him to want to set himself apart from the other unconfirmed players. But it does seem like he was rushing to point the FoS to the other three, his buddy(ies) included, based solely on the implied argument of "I'm Town, they are Mafia". Did it help him look less suspect?

Overall, nth stood out to me in particular the whole game, except of these couple of things.

I'm done for today, need to get some rest as I'm unfortunately working again tomorrow, but hopefully things will be manageable enough for me to check in before the deadline.
[Moderator's note]

I forgot that I actually have someplace to be early tomorrow afternoon. I'd like to keep the deadline as it is (for time zone reasons) - just know that I won't be able to make the nightfall post for an hour or two after that. Hopefully that will still work for everyone.

Thanks!