Alright, I reinstalled the game, tested my bullcrap, proven myself semi right, semi wrong, then went on the internet to read snippets from a PDF file on the subject matter.
The PDF in question:
https://www.cs.virginia.edu/diochnos/research/other/heroes/internals/on_skills.pdf For the TL;DR:
The both of you are right in that it is statistics driven. However, there are two exceptions to those statistics:
The Wisdom exception: "A hero can not wait for more than 6 levels so that Wisdom is offered to him; either as a brand new skill or as an upgrade."
In a nutshell, you will be offered Basic Wisdom every six levels, the only way to not get it is to go out of your way to avoid it until your entire skill set is full.
The Magic exception : "A hero can not wait for more than 4 levels so that a Magic School is offered to him; either as a brand new skill or as an upgrade of an existing one."
So in a nutshell, you are at least given a Magic School by level 4 (if you didn't get a bunch of opportunities for Magic Schools before) and if you pick one and max it out as soon as possible, you will be given another school four levels later, and if you max this new one out as soon as possible then four levels later you will be offered another one.
If you are extremely picky which Magic School you want ("Earth Magic or bust!" for example), you can avoid picking one and every four levels the game will offer you a Magic School until your skill set is full, giving you at least four opportunities to pick it up.
It seems like Magic heroes have an easier time acquiring all four Magic School because in addition to the Magic Exception rule, they are offered schools on level up more often than Might heroes statistically speaking. That being said, and granted you are not picky with what Magic School you get, every Might hero can expect to pick up at least two Magic Schools in addition to basic Wisdom by the time his skill slots are full, picking a third school in addition to basic Wisdom for a Might hero is also very common.
So basically, like the both of you said, it's all statistics and probabilities which secondary skills you get, but like I was led to believe, both thanks to that one forum post I first read ages ago, and then confirmed several times through my own playthroughs and from watching Let's Plays of HoMM3, Wisdom and the Magic Schools have special rules that overwrite the statistics and probabilities associated to all heroes classes and make them almost guaranteed you will be able to pick up Wisdom and at least two Magic Schools, even with the least statistically probable of Might candidate.
-edit-
As a quick but unscientifically accurate test just to check out if both exceptions were true, I hired 20 or so heroes (of both types but I put extra focus on Might heroes as those heroes I thought would have the hardest time picking Wisdom and Magic Schools) and I had them run into a bunch of Pandora's boxes with experience points inside. All I did was:
Priority #1: If Basic Magic School shows up, pick it up,
Priority #2: If Basic Wisdom shows up, pick it up,
Priority #3: Otherwise, always upgrade an older skill,
Priority #4: If I can't upgrade or can't pick a new Magic School or Wisdom, pick a skill at random.
That's all I did, once I had exhausted all the Pandora's boxes I put on the test map:
All 20 heroes or so had acquired Expert Wisdom and at least three of the four Magic School.
Not all, but most of the Magic heroes had all four Magic school and Wisdom, those who didn't I think had some sort of skill restriction.
I got one Knight that was lucky enough to get all four Magic Schools and Wisdom.
All heroes who didn't start out with basic Wisdom were offered basic Wisdom by level 6 without fail.
After every three levels up without a Magic School upgrade or offer, on the next level up I was offered one without fail.