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orcishgamer: I'll give you a hint: it's bigger than 381.
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keeveek: Quite funny looking at your elections system.
I find nothing funny about our elections, they're the joke of the free world.
Damn. I didn't have the time to watch it. Something came up. Quite literally...
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SimonG: Damn. I didn't have the time to watch it. Something came up. Quite literally...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTiZ2g3etrw&hd=1
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orcishgamer: 381 voters who voted in that poll, wow, I would suggest that means that poll means fuck all.
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tangledblue11: Most legitimate political polls sample 500-800 people. 400 people for a rush poll to share post-event on live tv isn't bad. That is to say, it's just as reliable or unreliable as any other respected poll. Depending upon your view - and certainly mine - that may not mean a whole lot.
If you believe that 381 voters in an open flash poll, in which nobody knows anything about their backgrounds, are even remotely comparable to a poll among a carefully selected sample that has been statistically/scientifically checked, and found to match the distribution of opinions and backgrounds in a nation well enough to allow predictions, then you're undermining everything you said so far. Sorry. Calling this CNN poll "the only scientific poll" makes you look like someone desperately spreading propaganda instead of actually contributing something worthwhile. And that's coming from me, someone who couldn't care less about the outcome of the current elections.
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SimonG: Damn. I didn't have the time to watch it. Something came up. Quite literally...
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keeveek: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTiZ2g3etrw&hd=1
Thx.

What happened to sex moderators? ;-)
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Fomalhaut30: Does anyone actually believe anything a politician says actually matters?
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orcishgamer: If you're asking me, personally, hell no! If you're asking the nation at large, a large portion will say yes, though I'm not sure what percentage that'd be, it'll be bigger than a handful.
Keep in mind, that 50% of the country are C-students or worse...

If that doesn't make a person sit up at night and worry about the future of humanity, I don't know what will.
Post edited October 12, 2012 by Fomalhaut30
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orcishgamer: I'm by no means a statistics expert, but I know enough to know that 381 people doesn't ring in anywhere near "statistically significant". That rings in squarely in the range of "entertainment".
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tangledblue11: The sample size is statistically fine but that is how you are left with a 5% margin of error. The methodology is sound The point you are trying to make is that 400 people doesn't mean jack shit and I agree with you for the most part - and that's why I'm skeptical of all polls.
Er, why does it sound like you just agreed but then say the methodology is "sound"? The methodology is asking people, they didn't get enough for statistical significance. That's why it doesn't mean shit, even if you did get enough you'd still calculate a margin for error, Wikipedia has an okay launching point article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_significance

The important thing to note is how the "sample size" fits into that function. They're basically arguing that they had very, very low noise, which is unlikely.
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SimonG: Damn. I didn't have the time to watch it. Something came up. Quite literally...
Was she hot?
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orcishgamer: If you're asking me, personally, hell no! If you're asking the nation at large, a large portion will say yes, though I'm not sure what percentage that'd be, it'll be bigger than a handful.
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Fomalhaut30: Keep in mind, that 50% of the country are C-students or worse... If that doesn't make a person sit up at night and worry about the future of humanity, I don't know what will.
We haven't graded that way in almost 50 years. If you said 50% of the country feel at or below median level, then I'd agree:)
Post edited October 12, 2012 by orcishgamer
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orcishgamer: Was she hot?
I consider this a rhetorical question ;-). Oh course she was hot.
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Psyringe: cut
I see that you are from Germany so perhaps your English is poor. Otherwise, your reading comprehension needs work. I have said multiple times now that I do not trust polls. CNN is the only poll I'm aware of that wasn't conducted by a bunch of knuckleheads clicking a raidal button 30 times for their favorite guy on some internet site. They adhered to an established methodology WHICH I AGREE IS NOT THE MOST TELLING SYSTEM AROUND. I hope that is clear enough for you.

Now, if you knew anything about political polling, you would know that in most cases pollsters don't weight or normalize data and even if they did only 9% of people contacted even participate in polls. That in and of it self could have huge ramifications on outcomes becuase god only knows what views those 9% have compared to the other 91% of the nation.
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orcishgamer: Was she hot?
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SimonG: I consider this a rhetorical question ;-). Oh course she was hot.
Admit it, we've all had our fatties, we just drink more when it happens (and by "we", I mean the rest of you poor slobs, not me!).

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Fomalhaut30: Keep in mind, that 50% of the country are C-students or worse... If that doesn't make a person sit up at night and worry about the future of humanity, I don't know what will.
We haven't graded that way in almost 50 years. If you said 50% of the country feel at or below median level, then I'd agree:)
Eh, it was meant in the spirit of C being "average". If you're talking about not using C's, then I'd have to say, "Huh?".

We haven't graded that way in almost 50 years. If you said 50% of the country feel at or below median level, then I'd agree:)
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Fomalhaut30: Eh, it was meant in the spirit of C being "average". If you're talking about not using C's, then I'd have to say, "Huh?".
I'm being nit-picky, as is my wont! Now stop it, you mathematical slipshod!
I'm watching the debate and shit how much I hate militaristic apreach on everything in foreign policy of Republicans, oh god I hate this...

It's like Republicans response for every foreign policy question is: LET'S JUST BOMB THE MOTHERFUCKERS.

By the way, it's just another "let's just shout at each other" debates... I hate that kind of aproach, it's a common thing in Polish policitics.
Post edited October 12, 2012 by keeveek
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SkeleTony: ROTFLMAO! Republican eh? Everyone and his brother knows and is stating that Biden completely creamed Ryan and the debate is being re-broadcast on a few channels right now so you can see for yourself. The contrast between this debate and the first debate between Romney and Obama is stark indeed. Biden did not let Ryan get away with ANY untruths. One Facebook page I saw characterized the debate via a status update: "Hello 9-1-1? Yeah I'd like to report an old man beating a child on my TV...". I am no Democrat and won't be voting for Obama in 2012 but you have to give it up for them. Biden came out swinging and connecting with every swing.
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tangledblue11: http://www.cnn.com/ Biden did the absolute best he could but it was by no means a win. The best he could have hoped for was a modest loss which would be considered a draw (which is almost exactly what happened). His admin's record over the past 4 years and his lack of credibility on important issues absolutely prevented him from a win. Partisan observers all liked their guy. Independents are not going to share your take.
As a non-American, i find your view very interesting. Essentially suggesting it is impossible for one party to a debate to win that debate regardless of what he/she said is a novel take on how debates are judged.

My faith in democracy is restored...
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orcishgamer: Er, why does it sound like you just agreed but then say the methodology is "sound"? The methodology is asking people, they didn't get enough for statistical significance. That's why it doesn't mean shit, even if you did get enough you'd still calculate a margin for error, Wikipedia has an okay launching point article: [
I promise I am not trying to be rude but I don't think you understand the word "methodology." CNN conducted their poll systematically - the approach they took is in line with polling norms but you still have to consider that this is a snap poll.

I was/am saying that I am skeptical of all poll results but that CNNs poll is by no means worthless.