Logically you would be right, however we live in a country where the 'Conservative' candidate freely bounces between a half dozen different positions, from far Left to far Right, in the space of weeks. You are right that Conservative voters are going to vote for him even if he seems to completely reverse his positions every time he is asked about them and more than a few Democrats will vote for Obama even when he throws the people who got him elected under the bus over and over again. But I still know there are a good number of largely useless moderates and such who voted for Bush once or twice then voted for Obama in 2008 and this election could vote either way, depending on things like debate victories, super pac ads, etc.

And Biden's victory tonight is already swaying many of those.

I AM an independent the first time in my life I registered Republican was in 2010 and that's only because we don't have open primaries in AZ. I love how politically mature individuals who bother to research issues must be Republican because they don't make wildly reckless blanket statements about how Rs are evil and Ds are political jesuses.

Would you like to make a gentleman's wager on your poll prediction? Using the most historically credible poles (Gallup, Ras, Pew) I will buy you any GOG $10 or under if those polls return an average LIKELY VOTER result of 5 point swing for Obama next week. Or, we can just use the RCP trendline, which currently favors Romney by +.7

I actually expect Romney to grow his already sizeable advantage in Independents after this debate.
Just figured I would add that even extreme left-wing sources like MSNBC and Daily Beast consider the debate at draw at best.

Part of me would love to make a little wager with you but I really don't see you being honest enough to own up to it if you lose. But for starters I am too old and not nearly naive enough to believe that polls are that reliable. Polls had Kerry crushing Bush...just before he lost the election (to be fair though there was a lot of voter fraud going on). Half the Conservatives I talk to claim to be "independent" and most of them are and always have been Conservative. And you would have to be pretty far Right to claim that Ryan even came close to a "Draw" here.

Edit: I was just watching MSNBC and they were jumping for joy and going on adn on about how badly Biden beat Ryan. None of them (even the Republicans there) are saying Ryan won. I have not ever been to the Daily Beast but I would bet money you are lying a bit here. The only critiques I have heard from Liberals are that certain issues did not get brought up (which is hardly Biden's fault) such as marriage equality.

I see what you're saying. I guess we could consider independents as two different groups

A) easily influenced, uninformed people
B) well-informed people who don't want to compromise their views to fit into one party's platform

http://edition.cnn.com/POLITICS/pollingcenter/polls/3262
With such small viewers difference, I'd say the debate was a draw. Kinda surprised, because I thought Biden doesn't stand a chance.

And by the way, it doesn't matter what experts say. Hello, it's a democracy! :D

381 voters who voted in that poll, wow, I would suggest that means that poll means fuck all.

Right, me and 48% of the country are just part of the extreme right-wing and you're smack-dub in the center with no bias and all the answers. Think about what you are saying. I do give you kudos for not trusting the polls.

Also, I am not being a dick, but since I try hard to adhere to the character virtues of Washington and Franklin I have to take issue with your honesty remark. The first person not named SkeleTony to reply to this sentence will get any GoG game $10 or less gifted to you.

Unless you know what a representative group is.
But yeah, you're right about that. The group should be 10 times bigger imho.

I'm gonna watch the debate right now, but from what I've heard, Paul Ryan gave a terrible performance. Quite opposite I would expect from him. Well... Let's see.

btw. CBS poll shows that Biden won decisevely.

Most legitimate political polls sample 500-800 people. 400 people for a rush poll to share post-event on live tv isn't bad. That is to say, it's just as reliable or unreliable as any other respected poll. Depending upon your view - and certainly mine - that may not mean a whole lot.

I'll give you a hint: it's bigger than 381.

It seems very odd to me that a whole nation would make its political future dependent on the outcome of pseudo-intellectual boxing matches, even debating who's "won" a particular fight - but maybe that's just me.

I'm by no means a statistics expert, but I know enough to know that 381 people doesn't ring in anywhere near "statistically significant". That rings in squarely in the range of "entertainment".

The sample size is statistically fine but that is how you are left with a 5% margin of error. The methodology is sound The point you are trying to make is that 400 people doesn't mean jack shit and I agree with you for the most part - and that's why I'm skeptical of all polls.

Quite funny looking at your elections system.

btw. most polls shown in tv ever are made on group smaller than 500 people.