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General discussion (archive)Russia cheated in men's skeleton in Sochi 2014(159 posts)(159 posts)
(159 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted February 16, 2014
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lettmon: Basically he got robbed in Sochi. As for me I just wanted to raise awareness that Russia is still the source of all evil.
No offense but you seem prejudiced towards Russia to begin with.

Considering how common 2 out of 4 of the start times match up in these events I find it absurd to jump to cheating allegations on a single 4x same time. If 2x the same time is common it's not unreasonable that 4 times happens sometimes as well.

Also, according to this they had a lot of practice time on that particular starting track, much more than the other countries.
Post edited February 16, 2014 by Pheace
Posted February 16, 2014
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wpegg: Ok, I am curious. Could you talk this through for someone that is not famliar with the sport at all.

Firstly, what is a start time?

Secondly, given that it's an olympic event, and you're competing with the best. Isn't it likely that such start times are going to be tight, and thus your window for start times will be small. What is the likely range of start times?

Thirdly, what was the precision in the start time counter, I thought they went better than 1/10th of a millisecond. Can you get that data?

Fouthly, I'd just like to point out the mistake that it's not impossible, just that you're suggesting it is highly improbable. I'm hoping from discussion we can discern just how improbable that is.

Lastly, if Russia wanted to fake something, given they've got so much resource - wouldn't they do it better?
I will try but mind you I am not too familiar with skeleton either.

1. Start time is the first several metres of the track that racers spend pushing their sledge as fast as possible.

2. Yes, start times are very tight but 4 identical times never happen, unless Russia.

3. I don't know. I was thinking about that too. The time is taken by laser so I would think you could get precision of 0.00000000000000000...

4. It is pretty f-ing improbable because it never happens in sledge sports!

5. Yes, it's very stupid of them to cheat so openly.
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Pheace: No offense but you seem prejudiced towards Russia to begin with.

Considering how common 2 out of 4 of the start times match up in these events I find it absurd to jump to cheating allegations on a single 4x same time. If 2x the same time is common it's not unreasonable that 4 times happens sometimes as well.

Also, according to this they had a lot of practice time on that particular starting track, much more than the other countries.
We are talking 1/100 of a second here. People who race/have raced professionally say that 4 times can't happen.
Post edited February 16, 2014 by lettmon
Posted February 16, 2014
Now, it's highly improbable, and I'm no fan of the Russians... But isn't the probability of 4 identical start times actually the same as the probability of any four defined start times happening in succession?

i.e. P(4.47, 4.47, 4.47, 4.47) = P(A.BC, D.EF, G.HI, J,KL)
Posted February 16, 2014
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pds41: Now, it's highly improbable, and I'm no fan of the Russians... But isn't the probability of 4 identical start times actually the same as the probability of any four defined start times happening in succession?

i.e. P(4.47, 4.47, 4.47, 4.47) = P(A.BC, D.EF, G.HI, J,KL)
When it comes to likelyhood, it depends on the range, and this is the thing I have been unable to establish. If the range is between 4.47 and 4.48, then the probability of 4 identical is the same as getting 4 heads in a row.
Post edited February 16, 2014 by wpegg
Posted February 16, 2014
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lettmon: We are talking 1/100 of a second here. People who race/have raced professionally say that 4 times can't happen.
It can, it's just unlikely.
Posted February 16, 2014
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pds41: Now, it's highly improbable, and I'm no fan of the Russians... But isn't the probability of 4 identical start times actually the same as the probability of any four defined start times happening in succession?

i.e. P(4.47, 4.47, 4.47, 4.47) = P(A.BC, D.EF, G.HI, J,KL)
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wpegg: When it comes to likelyhood, it depends on the range, and this is the thing I have been unable to establish. If the range is between 4.47 and 4.48, then the probability of 4 identical is the same as getting 4 heads in a row.
Also true - I oversimplified to demonstrate a point. Either way, I don't think that we can accuse the Russian of cheating.

However, on the plus side, there is an amazing Ice Hockey game between Finland and Canada on the red button at the moment.
Posted February 16, 2014
To be honest, I'm not surprised. I realize I should be, but somehow I'm not surprised at Russia's actions.
Posted February 16, 2014
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wpegg: When it comes to likelyhood, it depends on the range, and this is the thing I have been unable to establish. If the range is between 4.47 and 4.48, then the probability of 4 identical is the same as getting 4 heads in a row.
Of course the range is small but if 30 other racers have different start time each time - that speaks for itself.
Posted February 16, 2014
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wpegg: When it comes to likelyhood, it depends on the range, and this is the thing I have been unable to establish. If the range is between 4.47 and 4.48, then the probability of 4 identical is the same as getting 4 heads in a row.
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lettmon: Of course the range is small but if 30 other racers have different start time each time - that speaks for itself.
What is the range?
Posted February 16, 2014
These kind of statistical anomalies do happen though - the qualifying for the European Grand Prix in Jerez in 1997 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_European_Grand_Prix) had the top three drivers qualifying with a lap exactly the same time - to the thousandth of a second.
Posted February 16, 2014
Now i know whats skeleton is...and wtf i try to avoid this sold out games like the plague
Posted February 16, 2014
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lettmon: Of course the range is small but if 30 other racers have different start time each time - that speaks for itself.
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wpegg: What is the range?
The first three racers varied within the range of 1-2/100 in their starting times. Like scoring a 4.57 in the first heat and 4.58 in the second.

So there is not a shred of proof of any foul play...
Posted February 16, 2014
is it not possible to have your technique down so well that you have a time that you always hit? i know a few sports i managed to do that with, but not knowing this on in any detail i wouldn't know if this is possible, i would assume so?

now i have to ask and im sorry but does anyone else have the urge to watch Cool Runnings after reading all of this?
Posted February 16, 2014
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pds41: These kind of statistical anomalies do happen though - the qualifying for the European Grand Prix in Jerez in 1997 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_European_Grand_Prix) had the top three drivers qualifying with a lap exactly the same time - to the thousandth of a second.
CHEATERS! ALL OF THEM! FOR SHAME!
Posted February 16, 2014
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Darvond: To be honest, I'm not surprised. I realize I should be, but somehow I'm not surprised at Russia's actions.
There's not even any proof of cheating, the OP's just jumping to conclusions because he doesn't understand probability very well.
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General discussion (archive)Russia cheated in men's skeleton in Sochi 2014(159 posts)(159 posts)
(159 posts)