Posted July 03, 2014
OldFatGuy: Switching doors after revealing one goat does NOT make anyone more or less likely to win a car, from a mathematical standpoint.
grimwerk: No motives here, just math. Here are the 18 possible permutations for the three-door Monty Hall scenario. (The four-door scenario would get a bit long, but the logic is similar.) Car behind A, choose A, switch: lose
Car behind A, choose A, don't switch: win
Car behind A, choose B, switch: win
Car behind A, choose B, don't switch: lose
Car behind A, choose C, switch: win
Car behind A, choose C, don't switch: lose
Car behind B, choose A, switch: win
Car behind B, choose A, don't switch: lose
Car behind B, choose B, switch: lose
Car behind B, choose B, don't switch: win
Car behind B, choose C, switch: win
Car behind B, choose C, don't switch: lose
Car behind C, choose A, switch: win
Car behind C, choose A, don't switch: lose
Car behind C, choose B, switch: win
Car behind C, choose B, don't switch: lose
Car behind C, choose C, switch: lose
Car behind C, choose C, don't switch: win
In three of the nine don't switch cases, you win.
In six of the nine switch cases, you win.
You're better off switching.