Gundato: You keep bringing up that people are stubborn and set in their ways. That is true for both sides of the fence. I am sure that you have worked with people who have 'theories" before. They tend to see data in ways that promote their "theories" and tend to support all ambiguous data as either inconclusive or actually supporting their own "theory".
Same thing here. You argue that we can only speculate, and that is true. But whereas you keep talking about trying new territory and the like, one could just as easily argue that current trends indicate no real need for a drastically new approach. And Ubi evidently agrees that a drastically new approach is needed :p
DarrkPhoenix: If the folks in the industry were happy with the current trends then we wouldn't be hearing all the rhetoric about how piracy is a problem and needs to be combated. Or how they the quarterly earnings they had projected didn't materialize (yet again). Obviously many in the industry feel that the current state of things is most definitely non-ideal, yet their solution is just more of what they've been doing. As for the anti-DRM group being stuck in their ways, that's certainly a possibility, although the criticism that a major new release going DRM isn't a viable suggestion just takes us full circle to where this conversation started in the first place. Although a good way to shut up folks with new ideas is to try those ideas and find out they don't work, and as was pretty central to my entire argument that just hasn't been tried (to my knowledge) with online distribution platforms (the danger to this process, of course, is trying out those new ideas and finding out they
do work).
And as an aside with regards to Ubi, their latest u-turn on DRM strikes more as a new director or VP out to make a name for himself as opposed to a decision made based on actual sale data and market analysis. But as this is purely in the realm of speculation it's not really worth going into.
And yet, one could also argue that with Ubi doing this, Blizzard doing something similar with Starcraft 2, and EA apparently doing something with Command & Conquer, that it really IS a well-thought out approach (that will hopefully fail miserably). And, you know, the best way to test an idea is to execute it and completely ignore the potential damage to revenue.
Seriously, it is all fine and dandy to try out new ideas. But look at the people who made Darwinia and Uplink. They outright admitted that Microsoft basically called their game garbage and made them remake the 360 version (and that it was a good move...). I remember back when the fans of that dev team/company would invade other forums to essentially beg people to buy the game so that said company wouldn't go out of business. They had really interesting ideas for games (I, for one, loved Uplink. Hated Darwinia though :p), but they didn't think things through. They tried to market indie/niche games as mainstream releases. And that failed miserably.
Same thing with what the article complained about. Steam and Impulse already offer publishers the option to sell their game DRM free (after that, it becomes an argument as to how much Steam or Impulse (or even GoG) count as DRM, in and of themselves). A lot of publishers go with that, but some still tack on another layer. Then you have Rockstar who tack on four or five more layers :p.
But what the article complained about was that Steam and Impulse and the like aren't offering everything DRM-free and "hassle" free, like GoG. And that is just unfair, simply because it would have a very good chance of them going out of business.
Don't get me wrong, you present a fun argument.
But imagine that you have a company and you are going to digitally distribute games. You have a bunch of friends (or, at least, people with very nice figures and loose morals who believe in sleeping their way to the top) who work for you. You want to do 100% DRM-free. So you talk to the publishers.
Gasp, shock, and amazement. Ubi is okay with you selling Splinter Cell: Conviction. Holy crap, you might actually stand a chance. But that is all they are going to let you sell. And Activision refuses to let you sell anything. And EA is willing to open their back-catalogue to you (so you can sell every PC version of Madden :p). They seem to argue that Steam, D2D, and Impulse don't have a problem with the model they want to use. So why should they give you a special version that might very well cause problems with Steam and Impulse in the future (Impulse and D2D are already screaming and whining that Steam is being shown unfair favoritism for having additional features that are actually worth using from the consumer's perspective...)?
So your options are: Risk your company, your employees (and their families/illegitimate children), and your reputation on a venture that is likely to fail (well, maybe SC:C will sell REALLY well :p). Or you can compromise and only offer a few titles DRM-free (isn't that what Stardock/Impulse effectively did?)
But if you do the latter (which is, economically, the best thing you can do at this point), you are going to run into even more problems in the future. "Well, you were willing to sell Silent Hunters 5 with DRM, so why won't you sell Starcraft 2 with DRM? Do you favor Ubi over us?"
And let's keep this in mind: the chance of even getting that one game is pretty slim, especially now that digital distribution is making distributors a lot less important.
So, as I think we both agree, it is up to the publishers to decide to go DRM-free. GoG is a good example that you don't need DRM to turn a profit. And every few months, someone sells a bottom-shelf game with no DRM that tends to do somewhat well (at least, as far as the company says :p).
But, at the same time, the people who actually have the sales figures (the publishers...) seem to think DRM is a good idea. How they determined this, who knows? But it would be pretty foolish to think they didn't perform some studies and research into this (especially with the economy the way it is).