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Rodzaju: *
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TwilightBard: And Rod...you might as well make your argument and case ANYWAY. Judging from the games I've read what you say or don't say can eventually come back to bite you in the ass anyway. But that's just the opinion I have at this state.
This.
If you are indeed town (which I still doubt), your main priority is always to get scum, not portect yourself. I get why you are afraid to do so, but if you want to be beneficial for town, you shouldn't hold yourself back if you have some suspicion.

I don't understand why you put so much weight into Popinjay's edit. Sure, he has done mistake, but it has happened before, both in games 1 and 3, and was written off as mere mistake. Of course, he could have hidden some slip but it's pure speculation and I won't lynch anyone on such basis. It's his first game, he made mistake and if he won't repeat it again I think we should leave it be.
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Vitek: I don't understand why you put so much weight into Popinjay's edit. Sure, he has done mistake, but it has happened before, both in games 1 and 3, and was written off as mere mistake. Of course, he could have hidden some slip but it's pure speculation and I won't lynch anyone on such basis. It's his first game, he made mistake and if he won't repeat it again I think we should leave it be.
Well, for myself, I wouldn't call it as my sole piece of evidence, he's given two votes without given any idea of exactly what he finds suspicious about the person voting for. The first vote I can probably push off to RVS, but it's hard to pinpoint. The second against Rodzaju was jumping onto the posts that were made without even pointing to any as being evidence that makes Rodzaju seem suspicious to him.

His lack of defense, strikes me as a bit odd as heads turn towards him. Even something that gives us something to look and be able to make a better decision on how we see his defense and his actions. His sudden unvoting of Rodzaju makes me think he really didn't have any suspicions and was simply jumping on the bandwagon in order to push a possible and speedy mislynch.

The Edit...I have to stress that the odds of it being a newbie mistake are probably pretty high. Unfortunately, it looks weird, it makes me question what might have been there, and it's going to hold a bit of weight at least early because of how the game is.
Oops, you were faster. I shouldn't leave to watch movie in the middle of post. :-)

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Rodzaju: Sometime between this & the next post, he changes his profile location from Australia to Guyana.
Maybe he travelled, or maybe he is trying to distance himself from my early (& not entirely serious) anti-oz comments.
Also the attack on me has died down & Twilight has switched his vote from me to Pop.
Or maybe he just wanted to buy uncensored version of Witcher so he changed his location to elsewhere than Australia.

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TwilightBard: Well, for myself, I wouldn't call it as my sole piece of evidence, he's given two votes without given any idea of exactly what he finds suspicious about the person voting for. The first vote I can probably push off to RVS, but it's hard to pinpoint. The second against Rodzaju was jumping onto the posts that were made without even pointing to any as being evidence that makes Rodzaju seem suspicious to him.

The Edit...I have to stress that the odds of it being a newbie mistake are probably pretty high. Unfortunately, it looks weird, it makes me question what might have been there, and it's going to hold a bit of weight at least early because of how the game is.
I know it is not sole evidence against him. He made some wierd moves so far and doesn't even bother to defend himself. But I don't like such things being used to lynch someone. It could happen to everyone and would he not be under scrutininy no one would mind. The same applies to location change. It's not reason to suspect someone.

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Rodzaju: Referencing back to his 4th post, if he knows so little about the game, how is he able to detect scummy behaviour?
I have to play devil's advocatte here again but I have noticed that a new players are often more likely to see someone as obvious scum more than "experienced ones".

Though I am still defending him I would like to see some sensible posts from him. There is the problem that, although his From says otherwise, he is from Australia, thus we have to wait for him to respond longer than with other players.

Hmm, we have 8 Europeans here, this is much more eurocentric game than the previous one.
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Vitek: Oops, you were faster. I shouldn't leave to watch movie in the middle of post. :-)
Thats always the danger of leaving a post hanging while thinking about something, makes it possible that something new turned up :P

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Vitek: I know it is not sole evidence against him. He made some weird moves so far and doesn't even bother to defend himself. But I don't like such things being used to lynch someone. It could happen to everyone and would he not be under scrutininy no one would mind. The same applies to location change. It's not reason to suspect someone.

Though I am still defending him I would like to see some sensible posts from him. There is the problem that, although his From says otherwise, he is from Australia, thus we have to wait for him to respond longer than with other players.
Well since part of finding the scums is for us to spot the odd moves, I find that a perfect reason to make him a suspect (if it turns out to result in a lynch, I would say that he would have to keep acting odd before that will occur). I am hoping that he will explain something or do something that might change my opinion about him, if he is indeed just an inexperienced town. But still, why doesn't he want to give any reasons? Because, its that "no reason" behavior that made me place him as my main suspect, not the edit (that one just added some scummy feeling to it all). But as you said anyone makes mistakes, we can just take a look a nmillar and that fairly scum comment he made about finding the power roles :P (I believe that one to have been unintended :) ) So as I wrote before, I am also waiting to see if something comes up to change my focus; to my secondary suspect the oddly named Rod or perhaps to consider putting some pressure on those 2 people in the game who haven't really said anything yet - in order to get some reactions.

And yea, it is quite nice that we have a lot of Europeans :) More people on at the same time.
The argument for Popinjay is convincing, but I'm curious about something Rodzaju said.

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Rodzaju: If he believed I am scum, killing me would prove that he has found the bad guys, not just getting closer.
I don't see how this follows, unless you're mafia. If you get lynched as town then you would prove he's full of it. He'd only gain momentum if you were mafia. Poor wording, or scumtell? Combined with prior (circumstantial, or perhaps even worse) evidence, awful as it is, I'm inclined to the latter. Not enough to vote yet... I learned my lesson in Mafia 3. But I'll offer a FoS: Rodzaju.

After all, it's the little things that lynch a scumbag.
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GhostQlyph: The argument for Popinjay is convincing, but I'm curious about something Rodzaju said.

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Rodzaju: If he believed I am scum, killing me would prove that he has found the bad guys, not just getting closer.
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GhostQlyph: I don't see how this follows, unless you're mafia. If you get lynched as town then you would prove he's full of it. He'd only gain momentum if you were mafia. Poor wording, or scumtell? Combined with prior (circumstantial, or perhaps even worse) evidence, awful as it is, I'm inclined to the latter. Not enough to vote yet... I learned my lesson in Mafia 3. But I'll offer a FoS: Rodzaju.

After all, it's the little things that lynch a scumbag.
That was my point.
"IF HE BELIEVES I AM SCUM....."
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Rodzaju: Sometime between this & the next post, he changes his profile location from Australia to Guyana.
Maybe he travelled, or maybe he is trying to distance himself from my early (& not entirely serious) anti-oz comments.
Also the attack on me has died down & Twilight has switched his vote from me to Pop.
I need some more time to put together a defence for the rest of your post and other people's posts but the reason for the change of location was a fun protest of Australia's ratings stupidity making Australians get the watered down version of The Witcher 2. Expect some more from me in the coming hours.
So there have been some issue with what I have done in this game.

1. I band wagoned on the first days for the sole reason of getting straight into the action. I had no idea this would be used so much against me. It my belief that a Mafia would never take a risk so early. My actions were no more trivial than the first few votes against other members.

2. There have been some comments about me copying other people's explanations. This is not the case. And I see no other way of suggesting that it be taken on face value as what I said was what I meant.

3. The comment was edited because it didn't make any sense grammatically or syntax wise.

I didn't really know much about this game. But since Rodzaju's post I checked a wiki and a flash movie.

I ask that everyone who is suspicious of me to think over it again. This night one is going to die and given people's attempt to lynch me, its not going to be me, because people will just assume that I killed them. And lynch me on night 2.

Damnation would of replaced me if he felt it necessary. If you are going to lynch me on the basis of one post edit then I should be replaced.

If you need any more clarification let me know. I'll take questions from anyone but Rodzaju as I really believe that he has motives to vilify me, although I haven't done much to prevent it, I'm watching him.
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Rodzaju: Snip.
Who are your main suspects?

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Popinjay: Snip
Same question to you.
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Rodzaju: Snip.
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nmillar: Who are your main suspects?

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Popinjay: Snip
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nmillar: Same question to you.
Rodzaju: For the reasons above. He has always been on my case. Be it because of his paranoia that I'm scum or he is exploiting my mistakes to knock me off. He just seems a little too full on.

And in the lack of any other convincing leads.

nmillar: There is a heightened probability that you are a mafia due to the amount of games you have played not as a mafia.

But it's early days.
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Popinjay: nmillar: There is a heightened probability that you are a mafia due to the amount of games you have played not as a mafia.
Probability of not being mafia in all four games: 31.6%
Probability of being mafia in one game out of four: 10.5%
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Popinjay: nmillar: There is a heightened probability that you are a mafia due to the amount of games you have played not as a mafia.
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nmillar: Probability of not being mafia in all four games: 31.6%
Probability of being mafia in one game out of four: 10.5%
Don't believe him! According to my unfailing math skills the chances are 78,314159265% he is not only mafia but also SK.
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Rodzaju: Snip.
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nmillar: Who are your main suspects?
Red_Baron
A listener. He makes a lot of posts, to show that he is interested in the game, but he takes in a lot more information that he gives out. I think he is cautious of both me & popinjay. I think he voted to push pop into better explaining himself.
I am aware of him, but he's not on my radar.

andy433uk
Only 2 posts, both short.
Not enough info to form an opinion.

TwilightBard
An interrogator. He asks questions, listens to answers. But unless it's to push a further point, he keeps his opinion of those answers to himself. very quick to vote & unvote. He uses the vote as another form of question, rather than neccesarily an indication of suspicion.
I can imagine him keeping notes & making a file on each of us. I'm not sure if he is going to present a case once he has overwhelming evidence, or has a power that will allow him ot make use of this information.
On my radar.

5. elbaz
Only 2 posts, both short.
Not enough info to form an opinion.

6. Popinjay
I've already made my case.
Defintely not town. I'm leaning towards some sort of Psycho, perhaps Serial Killer.
An interesting contrast in style to my own. I see myself being attacked, I defend. He sees himself under attack and completely ignores it. Where I try to convince those questioning me of my inocence, he has refused to talk to me. It looks like he has already decided that before dawn tomorrow either him or me will be dead, so there is no point trying to win me round. If he thought we would be in for the long haul, later on my vote may make a big difference.
My number 1 target.

pazzer
Absolutely no information.
This in itself draws attention to him, but not a big priority.

eyeball226
Again, a lot of posts, but not much to say. Difficult to read.
A vanilla player.

GhostQlyph
Missed the beginning, running to catch up. Wants to be relevant & influence the game.
Looks very much like a first timer, but this is not his first game.
Suspicious.

enterprise2004
Urging caution, trying to slow things down. Reads as town, but only a couple of posts to go on so far.
NOt suspicous.

Vitek
A Leader. He's played the game before & wants us all to know it. Last game he was mafia & managed to fool everyone & win.
He's good at the game, which makes me want to read everything he writes 3 times & try to figure out what he didn't write.
I'm honestly not sure I could peg him either way.
Cautious.

nmillar
The most experienced player. Also urging caution, which is more towney than scum. However, also very aware of the metagame, which might enable him to manipulate our perceptions.
I am aware of him, but he's not on my radar.
Which means I'm actually less likely to be mafia than those who are playing for the first time - they have a 25% chance of drawing mafia in a single game! :P

In fact, eyeball226 is the only person less likely to be mafia this time around, since he did draw mafia in his only previous game, so only has a 6.25% chance of being mafia this time around!

Actually, it might be interesting to work out the probability for everyone, and I'm going to go right ahead and do that - I'll post my findings shortly!
As promised, here are the statistical probabilities of each player drawing mafia:

Red_Baron - first time player: 25%
andy433uk - first time player: 25%
Rodzaju - first time player: 25%
TwilightBard - first time player: 25%
elbaz - first time player: 25%
Popinjay - first time player: 25%
pazzer - 'town' in game 2: 18.75%
eyeball226 - 'mafia' in game 1: 6.25%
GhostQlyph - 'town' in game 3: 18.75%
enterprise2004 - 'town' in game 2: 18.75%
Vitek - 'town' in game 1, 'mafia' in game 3: 4.69%
nmillar - 'town' in game 1, 'town' in game 2, 'town' in game 3: 10.55%