Well, had a good read through and keep coming back to Damnations Lynch and claims.

Two posts in particular stuck out - my original Damnation one, and Baz's later, talking about who had claimed what.

As for my theory - I hope by now everyone is happy that the 5 town I stated at the beginning was correct - Damnation, Nmillar, Roosh, Me, and Ghost. Ghost, by definition of turning up town, has I believe cleared me (town aren't supposed to lie remember). This leaves Jesskitten and Orryrro as the other two votes on Damnation.

Baz later on went through all claims - I'll add what we know since...

nmillar - proven jailer
Damnation - proven town
Ghost - proven town
Gojays - proven town
me* - claimed town
roosh* - claimed town
orryrro* - claimed town

Im sure Roosh is Town (never seen a mafia doublevoter before). Ghosts confirmation of me as town before lynching clears me, which leaves Orryrro.

He turned up in my theory earlier as well. Coupled with his somewhat odd claim of Union Jack, different from evreyone elses, I'm saying he's lying, and is scum.

Of the others, GoJays was Very interested in Typhoon I noticed reading back through - i wonder if he'd investigated him and turned up something nasty, but couldnt say it outright??

But its Orryrro for me - been on the radar since day1, and never really slipped off.

vote Orryrro

This post set so many weak alarm bells on my scumdar off that I'm unsure how seriously to take Ghost's "Rob is confirmed town" thing. I wonder what her win condition really is, and wonder if she said that (yet you didn't have the reverse to confirm her as town, despite her really being town, which is a super suspicious "omission") because she needed you to not be lynched or something. Or maybe you were her lynchee or something and she had to figure out the info she was given was wrong, due to tricky phrasing, or that she made that up because she tried to save you. Though I doubt you were her lynchee because she had your character and player name, and still wasn't gunning for you.

1. Let yourself be persuaded by baz? Is that some sort of a scum ploy trying to set up a chain of mislynches by shifting blame now? Funny, Ghost came under that spell of "I was to blame for D1 mislynch" on Day 2 and it totally scuttled her town play, I wonder if something was said in mason chat to guilt tripe her and give her that incredibly weird outlook on (character) life. Considering I have a much stronger town read on baz than you, I find this unsettling.

2. It's not Damnation, it's impossible, because by her own admission she only voted at the end as the final vote and not earlier because she thought he had been lynched already. If she was a lyncher by that article, and Damnation was the lynchee, she would have voted him much earlier and stayed on him, the way she did me in D2.

3. I don't find it odd that Roosh escaped at all. It seems like you're trying to explain away why he wasn't killed or something, while acknowledging they got a (role) cop (bigger fish for Mafia) at the same time. Not really a scumtell here, just a minor one, though it's a fairly commonly known weak scum tell that Mafia do (commenting on night kills with an "oh, that's too bad") so most of them don't do it, etc.

4.
- 12 players
- 4 dead (Zch, could you update that opening post when you have time please? Thanks :) )
- If we mislynch today, we have 7 left, 6 after night. So okay, I was going to ask if this was a scumslip, but I can see where you are coming from assuming 3 Mafia, though I still say you should not be assuming that. It is not a given there are 3 Mafia and 5 Town left.
- You're not factoring in Roosh's double vote though, assuming he's town. Or are you? Wouldn't that throw off the Mafia needing to have more votes than Town at the start of the day? Or do you know the exact wording of the Mafia win condition and know that this won't affect it?

Hmmmm. My thought train and original point of the post (to attack Robb) got derailed quickly there. Ghost's "100% town" thing is a very strong point for you, but as I said, since she was town, I find it very strange you had no corresponding evidence to clear her.

@Everyone, should we fullclaim? Should we no-lynch? Thoughts?

(Reason for no-lynch would be, one extra night for any investigative roles to get off their results - if Robb is right, today is , and tomorrow is [url=http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Lylo]lylo if we no-lynch, but a loss tonight if we mislynch).

So, guys, I'm on a different continent for the next three weeks (and what's worse, without my precious notes!), and I honestly don't know how much I'll be able to paticipate. I'll do my best to avoid a modkill, as we can't afford that now at all, but I can't promise anything. Sorry.

A few quick points for now:

If we ever get to the situation again in which we're about to lynch an innocent, please, everyone, don't give up as Damnation and Ghost did. That is the most anti-town thing you can do at that moment. Preventing a mislynch is crucial. Ghost's ghost, if you're still around, I'm sorry for being the driving force behind your lynch, but I'm still rather angry at you. A full claim, including your lyncher role, would explain your tunnel vision we saw earlier in the game and could have gone a long way towards clearing you. So again, don't ever think of doing something like that again, townies. Please.

Regarding the situation we're in now: there's one thing I can honestly tell you: I don't like Robb's behaviour at all. Yeah, I know what I said before the Ghost lynch, but now I know Ghost did omit an important piece of information in her claim, and her being town makes the discrepancy between the two mason claims extremely puzzling. I agree with Jess's analysis or Robb here, not to mention one thing, and this is more of a feeling than a deduction: Robb seems awfully sure of that theory of his. He never seems to have any doubts, does he? And I don't like that. No, I very much don't.

Another point: Ghost was a lyncher. Remembering earlier play, her target could have been either Orry or possibly Jess, but most likely Orry. Now, there are only 12 of us in this game and each mislynch counts; I think it would unbalance the game if Ghost's designated lynchee was town. As I have had my suspicions about him before, this only strengthens them.

Some more things, but I have to find some time to think. For now, I'll only repeat my strong FoS pointed at Robb and Orry (destined to be thrown under the bus today?). And for the record, I think we're nearing a situation in which a mass-claim would benefit us.

Finally - someone with a bit of sense! I've been cleared by Ghost - who was TOWN, remember, and as such can't lie about their role - and before you say it, omission is not lieing.

Yet still we have Jesskitten and Baz chasing conspiracy theories.

@Baz -yes I seem awfully sure of my theory because it makes sense!

Can't understand why these two should have such a downer on me - I've done my best to come up with reasons and theories to root out scum, even though sometimes without the world's most thought through logic!

This co-ordinated attack on me smells scummy. I still think Orryrro is the best target, but both Baz and Jesskitten are up there.

Perhaps. Yet the lyncher bit really confuses me. I wish I could read her exact PM. One thing that stood out for me though, is how you said we have to be careful and not get a mislynch today etc, and then vote Orry using that old bandwagon on Damnation thing when everyone knows he claimed scum and thus all bets are off on that one. Now, the second wagon would likely be more informative,

GhostQlyph - 6 - Bazilisek, Robbeasy, Orryyrro, rooshandark x2, Typhoon.

with all 3 claimed town on it as well as a leaning-town read (baz) and a null read (Ty) (Note: reads are my own), and maybe you could make some sort of Orry vs Typhoon for scum reasoning on that, but I'm curious why you're zoning in on that first bandwagon in particular and not the second - ie, you're picking the more dubious wagon to incriminate Orry (and earlier, me) in particular, yet was based on a broken premise (Damnation claimed scum, thus that wagon should be null, as EVERYONE had a vested interest in lynching him) rather than the one with ultimately more information.

Also for everyone else but you, note besides Orry and Roosh, the other person on both wagons was.. Robb!

Now, that being said, I agree with the flag claim bit, and a couple other things. He's down to a neutral read here. But I don't like your reasoning for attacking Orry. I say that because as you yourself pointed out, you must be absolutely sure of the lynch today due to lack of room for error, so why are you bringing up Day 1 bandwagons and early claims as your "proof"? Especially when you said at the end of day 2 that you thought Orry's claim smelled of town because he claimed vanilla? (#401)

Also, you are super eager to point out in every other post that you are town or that Ghost cannot lie because she flipped town (and then say her omission - even when she was resigned to defeat - didn't throw any water over the claim). Trying to constantly drum that in to us. We're well aware what she claimed about you. This is her exact claim:

So it's a conclusion from her flavour text that you are town, rather than something specifically saying so. I wish she said something about that to give us some further insight, but I somehow doubt we have a Seancer role here. But yes, I agree from that that there is a very strong chance you are town. But not 100%. It would have been 100% if she had flipped "vanilla" town mason, but she did not.

Baz may have thought that lynching her would clear your name, but to me it seems very unsettling and convenient that you would throw her under the bus like that () when at the start of the last page ([url=http://www.gog.com/en/forum/general/gog_mafia_3_jacks_of_all_trades/post381]#381) you were 100% sure she was town. Then followed by a "No, I can't confirm she's town", a 95% sure, and suddenly bam, let's lynch her to clear me. (I wasn't around then to argue otherwise, though note I would have been happy with a Ghost lynch for separate reasons anyway.)

But while masons have been known to lynch each other, even town masons, it's usually a suspicion that builds from stuff that happens in their mason chat and not one where someone else can so easily convince you to lynch a partner that you are 100% sure is a power role and 95% sure is town. And then be so contrite about lynching her when the reason you gave to hop on to the wagon was, from #411:
a) To clear your name (ie, you were lynching someone you thought was probably town, to clear your name, so if that was the reason, why act so contrite?)
b) On something about the order of the claims, when she stated quite clearly (#378) she decided to claim to head off the votes that were headed your way, and was able to "confirm" you as town to boot. That's the "Ghost is possibly scummy" reason you used to justify your vote?

I find that unlikely, which means a) was the more likely motivation (to lynch her to clear your name) - which would actually be fine, but in which case this:
looks really, really bad.

It is also not uncommon where one of a mason pair is town, and the other scum, and her flavour thing could have been part of her unclaimed lyncher role. We'll never know for sure, but to me it does cast some doubt over the entire thing.

Two questions for you then, Robb:
- Can you point out something recently that Orry has done that you think is scummy? Late to end D2 play?
- Do you have any other flavour roles besides being town mason? The duality of "town mason" (You) and "town lyncher mason" (Her) doesn't seem to balance out. Lyncher/lynchee maybe, town/scum maybe, but why would one be pure vanilla and the other vanilla lyncher?

Coordinated attack? It's scumhunting, regardless of if it's the correct tree or not, I don't like your claim/play one bit (I was already attacking you end of D2, remember?) but that doesn't mean I can't be convinced otherwise. We have to have some discussion while waiting for everyone else to check in for Day 3, and I'm very curious as to your reaction/answers.

She was not town, she was a lyncher which from my understanding gave her a different win condition than the town. Also, we're only assuming that there are 3 mafia, it wouldn't be all that unbalanced were it 2 mafia, 1 lyncher, 1 lynchee and 8 other townies. In fact, looking at the two lynches and the confirmed townies on it, that would make a lot more sense to me.

Well she did flip town lyncher,
So he's latching on to the town aspect of that, whereas we're wondering about the lyncher aspect of that. It is possible her lynchee was scum, but also possible it was town, or some 3rd party, and you're right in that if it was a standard Lyncher according to the wiki, then while she may have been generally town, her win condition would have been different. That's why I am somewhat uncertain if there really are 5 town/3 mafia left.

@Jesskitten

I just love the way you're so dismissive of the 'old Damnation Bandwagon' - 'everyone knows he claimed scum so all bets are off on that one'.....errrrm - no I dont think so. He was at L-1 when he claimed, so the fact he claimed Scum is moot at this point. You keep trying to kill this off. As far as I can see its by far the strongest bandwagon, not the most dubious - the fact you're trying to paint it as so just makes me more suspicious. i Implore everyone to go back and look at Day1 again, make you're own minds up, do not be swayed by Jesskitten (or me for that matter).

@Orryrro - yes, Ghost was town - MOD specifically said 'TOWN Lyncher' . Lyncher is an 'extra' role, it means Ghost could win the game if her Lyncher condition was met, but lose if not met, even if Town won out against Mafia. Thats how I believe the Lyncher role works - I'm sure I'll be corrected by others if I'm wrong. We can wonder about the Lynch part, but it still doesn't stop the fact that Ghost loses if Mafia win.

@Jess - 1) Not particularly , but still strong favourite with me for Very odd Claim (wrong flavour about it completely, although the fact he claimed vanilla does mollify that slightly), and day 2 theory.
2) I do not have any further flavour roles, no. Why would that be an issue? The 'duality' is purely on the whim of the Moderator, surely? Using that to beat me with seems a little barrel scraping, madam.

Co-ordinated attack? Its only scumhunting when you are hunting scum. If you are scum yourself, then its a co-ordinated attack.
You've said yourself, in your very last post 'But yes, I agree from that that there is a very strong chance you are town' - yet you still look to attack me. If you really thought that and were town, you wouldn't be carrying on with this would you??

Oh, and I 'acted' contrite when Ghost turned up Town because I actually thought she was scum.
I was contrite - i got it wrong (again) - we lose another town, one step closer to losing! How did you expect me to react? Yay, shes Town, that clears me?! I realise her flipping town clears me, but I would rather she flipped Scum, then I could defend myself other ways to convince people I'm not scum. She flips Scum, thats one down, two to go. Much better position for town.

From my understanding, lyncher as a role means you win if you are voting for the lynchee when they get lynched, regardless of what follows afterwards. Usually the lynchee is town, though that might be a bit of an imbalance with 3 mafia in a 12-person game, it wouldn't be if there were only 2 mafia, which, looking at the vote record frankly makes more sense.

Oh, ha, you are right. For some reason I had it drummed in that he claimed at L-3 or so. Okay, so that's valid. The invalid bit was Ghost's thing about investigating Orry = he's godfather as that came after. However, you Orry Roosh, both bandwagons (and Roosh is likely town as everyone agrees). Strong favourite perhaps, but still, besides the wagons, your latest tell on him that I see was a towntell, this goes back to the fact that we may be in MYLO now, according to your theory (8 players, 3 scum) and may outright lose if you are wrong. And you pointing that out + then voting him on "early on" evidence (the initial bandwagon) was what gnawed at me.

I don't disagree he's a lynch candidate. Your bandwagon analysis is fine if we ignore the fact that you were also on both and thus are as likely as him, claimed or no. I do disagree because you haven't provided any new reason for lynching him upon a reread or whatever, what changed between your advocation for lynching him for information (#406) and this lynch for scum? I'm saying it's really weird to acknowledge that mislynching here may be a loss, and yet following it up by voting someone without much of a case. Perhaps. I was trying to judge your town vs scum mindset and viewpoint, and feel out your reaction to a certain corollary I see that may clear you, without outright saying what it was and letting you latch onto it, because I had other concerns that weren't answered yet. Of course I would if I see scummy play and contradictions, especially when the only reason for said strong chance came from Ghost's claim. I had other issues and so I brought them up; it's not like I've suddenly jumped onto you with no precedent as I had raised concerns in D2 too, like she and you (and baz) had on me, like we've had on a couple other people, and this is what I see from leftover from D2 plus start of D3. Plus I'm not even voting you. Are you thus concluding that your scumteam of 3 is me, baz, Orry? Just pointing out again that that (thinking she was scum) didn't seem to be your main reason for going on the wagon as you had been defending her vehemently right up to that point. In the one right before (the same #406) you were berating people for trying to go for a power role, and suddenly you do an about-face and agree with baz, dig up one dubious shred of evidence, and jump on her wagon.




Sorry, can you explain this last bit please? The one about "looking at the vote record". I'm not sure what this refers to.

Who was voting for GhostQlyph and Damnation when they were lynched
Most likely, at least one mafia was in on this vote. Roosh most likely isn't mafia due to his role, nmillar, Damnation and GhostQlyph are dead and weren't mafia, which leaves jesskitten, Robbeasy and myself.
This one has more unconfirmed voters, Bazilisek, Robbeasy and Typhoon, in addition to myself.

If I had to guess right now I'd say Typhoon and Jesskitten were scum, Baz just doesn't seem scum right now and I know I'm town.

Good work there, Jess. By and large, I agree with what you pointed out. I'm getting a massive scum vibe from Robb now. I don't think he's handling the pressure at all well, to be honest. I find his ultra-defensive patterns very weird, and the way he's constantly throwing around that he's been cleared by Ghost's death is mighty suspicious. And yes, his claim that he's a vanilla mason is extremely interesting; I wanted to ask that myself, but forgot.

One theory I've been playing with in my head for a long time now is that there are actually 2 mafia and one of them is Roosh. That does sort of make sense, even though it could be tricky to pull off. I don't think it's right, but it is a possibility.

Got to run.

So basically those that were on one or the other wagons? I can see how you get that, but I don't get how you jump to the conclusion that there are only two. Why not Vitek or Nazarush, which were on neither? Maybe they're trying to hide and not vote at all? Heck, Vitek was voting you (Though it's a plus in the sense that you didn't omgus him back and call him Mafia by including him in your list of 3 here), and Nazarush hasn't really been on any wagon at all as you can see in those end of day votecounts - super suspicious in and of itself.

I can see the reasoning for the guesses, I don't see how that leads to there being only 2 Mafia though just because that of the 3 "unconfirmeds" on the two wagons, you think one of them is town. (There are [i]usually 3 Mafia in a game of 12 if there are 9 town[/url])


Ugh, wow, I didn't think of/consider that Rooshtangent theory at all. If that is true though I'd guess the other Mafia probably has to be fairly powerful to balance out the fact that they only have two. In fact, maybe that's why there was a role cop, to help dig out the other person (who may be a godfather or something, or there just being no real cops, to help balance 2v10).

What do you mean by his vanilla mason claim is interesting? Or what do you think of that, rather?



Also anyone else amused that the first line of GoJays's character's wiki page names him as a Mafia member? :P

Now this is an interesting theory that I hadn't thought of. I'd advise against attempting to lynch him first though, since that could turn out poorly for us if he was town.