Well I have to agree with previous posters that Roosh is probably town based on his ability.

GhostQlyph still strikes me as an overzealous townie, but I hope everyone else will be less quick to jump on her bandwagons (no offense.)

Typhoon45 is looking overtly suspicious to me at this point. His only vote was random at the very start of the first day and since then he has posted very little and given no suspicions or arguments against anyone that I can find.

But probably my biggest suspicion would be Vitek, on account of this line from post #145
"Well, Ghost, when you are convinced he is mafia why don't you go ahead and lynch him? "
If Vitek believed Damnation to be scum, why didn't he lynch him? If he believed him to be town, why push Ghost to lynch? To me, this seems like a mafia member trying to get a mislynch without being the hammer.

Now I don't like this word much, but scumtell. And a big one at that.

The job of town is to root out the mafia. The job of the mafia is to not look suspicious. Discuss.

I hope people will be less quick to jump on my bandwagons as well. Luckily I've been trying to avoid starting them this time.

Typhoon is "suspicious" but not suspicious ENOUGH. I called him out mostly so we could start to form an opinion on him. Caution here, please. Remember what happened with Damnation, and sometimes I give better (in the sense of conviction, not in the sense of evidence offered) arguments than the things being argued for warrant.

Vitek is still on my list. Jesskitten was (till Baz's excellent post) just below him as far as suspicions go, and I voted Jess, but I'm not about to jump vote onto him.

This is why: Vitek posted just a bit too much all at once to be a safe bet on mafia now. Now if he can keep that up, his position will stay low on the list with me -- but if he goes back to a Orryyrro type, a lot of very quiet posts that are easy to ignore... Well. You bring up my biggest peeve with him, but it's not an overwhelming smash on his character. Slips happen, I've realized, and a bit of prudence is necessary now.

On the subject of Orryyrro and Vitek, I notice that this day they are MUCH more vocal. My current "most suspected mafia" full team would consist of Jesskitten (in an advisory role of some sort, helping the newer and less experienced pair to cover their asses), Vitek (probably Roleblocker) and Orryyrro (as the Godfather). They would work together very very well, and the play styles and observations match up with such a thing.

Granted, as I cautioned above -- let's move a bit more slowly this time. We don't need a one-off lynch that ends up all bad.

If we did, though, I'd pick Jesskitten. Most experienced player and doing some scummy things that are well-hidden behind what appear to be townie posts. If she was Mafia, we'd be cutting off their mastermind. If not... possibly losing a majorly helpful player, but on the other hand I'm seeing a lack of town-friendly behavior except in the realm of bland politeness and scum-tells obscured with murky and often bandwagoned reasoning.

Still, let's be careful this time.

But, looking suspicious when you are not would not help root out mafia, the best way would be to give cause for the mafia to appear suspicious. Not looking suspicious is very much a part of the town's job, as not looking suspicious helps in identifying those who are. another point is that if I was mafia I would have known that Damnation was not, therefore I would not have had to worry about my vote for him pointing anything out about me. (however, now it does admittedly make me look bad)

This is an awfully tortuous and involved explanation that I do not buy. I am suspicious as all hell, but nobody's turning the axe my way (yet) because I'm trying (not doing very well, but the effort is being put in) to be town-friendly more than worry about looking like Mafia. I figure my actions will speak for themselves, and for the most part members of this game seem to act more in accordance with that. I still say you're Mafia.

But your actions have been extremely suspicious, at least to me, the only reason I am not voting for you currently is the reaction you gave once Damnation had 7 votes.

They HAVE been suspicious, that's what I'm trying to say. A townie isn't about to consider "oh jesus do I look suspicious" because if the town wins, they win, even if they're dead. The Mafia have fewer members to work with, so even one lynch can seriously cripple them. They have a lot more to worry about when it comes to suspicion.

Yes, but if the townies look suspicious that severely detracts from their ability to notice suspicious actions on the part of the mafia.

I have to say that Ghost doesn't appear to be mafia to me. She's made some good arguments/counter-arguments, and is very forward and open with her ideas and whatnot. I'd think that any mafia would be sneakier, afraid that if they wrote so much that they'd give something away, perhaps. In this way, it looks like Ghost has nothing to hide, and therefore I have to say that she is likely to be innocent.

As for Typhoon, I'm not really buying it. the Damnation fiasco happened before the weekend, he's been active elsewhere including the other game during that time (not sure if taking evidence from outside the game counts, but whatever), so I can't imagine him not saying anything at all about all that. My vote's staying on Typhoon.

It was a week long effort. I know that I was semi-active elsewhere, but I really wasn't posting in either Mafia thread unless it was really necessary (e.g. at L -2 to being lynched). Procrastination? Yes, I do that. Take up an hour of my time hacking out a 500 word character assessment chart? Not so much. Speaking of, kudos to everybody who decides to make those things (e.g. Ghost and Jess) - and when we quote them, if we aren't going to respond to every point, could we please say "snip"? It makes it easier to catch up without being overwhelmed.

@ GhostQlyph, you really do like leading witch hunts, don't you :P. You haven't really implicated yourself, however, and you are very open in how you feel about everybody else in the game, which is enough for me to not wholly suspect you yet. But I think that its strange that half of your list was killed off, and the other half looks scummy... so you are going to stop inquiring about them? Its nothing solid, but still...

@ JessKitten, almost the same for you as it is for Ghost. I find it kind of funny that she targeted you.. PEOPLE OF GOG! PREPARE FOR MANY PAGES OF IN DEPTH ANALYSIS.

@ Bazilsek, wow, that was very well thought out. I think that you had some very strong points against both Orryyrro and JessKitten, and I agree with your detective work on what you think the mafia want to do. That having been said, for you and everyone above, analysis does not clear you of any suspicion. But you seem about as clean as clean can get right (for now)

@ Vitek. Seriously? I don't get it. Were you trying to start a bandwagon on me by voting? All of your votes so far seem to be you casually sliding into a vote in hopes of lynching someone. It's very scummy... and, simply because it looks like fun, FoS: Vitek

Finally, I would have to say that I don't have anything really concrete on anyone right now. There is very little evidence that isn't circumstantial, and rushing to a lynch again isn't going to help anybody right now. For these reasons, I'm not going to vote for anyone - but I am going to keep an eye on the situation.

Okay! All caught up now (ish), after the weekend. Yes it's long, and I'm sorry. Catch up post. :)

Firstly, I'm going to start with Baz's post (#191) since it's a fairly good one.

I agree Roosh is likely town; I already said earlier as well how it would break endgame if Mafia had it, because they know who is town and who is not. Unless this is a very convoluted setup with several town investigators and vote-blockers and whatnot, which doesn't seem to be the case, it is highly unlikely.

Yes and no, it depends on how it's done, sometimes the danger is when the Mafia takes over the town by having too many sheep following the popular opinion, without their own reason, and it causes a string of mislynches. It's also very easy to do the opposite and say, oh, XXX can't be Mafia because they're so upfront and vehement, and let the Mafia drive the town into a wall. Now that being said, I think most of Ghost's play has been townie, but not all (later points).

I agree the theory of Roosh doesn't hold water, but only because I can't believe Zch would put in a mafia doublevoter without damning proof. It is possible though that they killed him off precisely to draw lines to him and make him look either guilty, or innocent by too-obvious guilty, but regardless of whether he is Mafia or not, the Mafia could still have tried it for that reason anyway.

I'll throw some WIFOM back at you at this argument:

I don't think she discredited herself at all, because her arguments were solid. She didn't even vote for Damnation at all until the very last vote, after he had claimed Mafia. Seems like a perfectly reasonable vote to me. Your argument could easily be reversed and maybe she's Mafia, and they killed her 2nd suspect to clear her, and maybe Orryynno from suspicion. Or maybe they killed him in order to throw mud over this and make us accuse each other and be blinded to the quieter ones slipping along behind the scenes. You give one viewpoint that nicely explains all the supposed Mafia motives that you thought through, and that supports your agenda, but conveniently fail to even mention any of the other possibilities? Hmm.

I just thought of one more interesting tangent from the Damnation confession that I don't think town has considered yet. What were the Mafia thinking when Damnation claimed scum? They had to know he wasn't one of them, and the fact that he named others, might have made them think there was a second scumteam, if that's even possible in a group of 12. Are we even sure there are 3 scum, as everyone seems to be listing, and not two opposing groups of two or something more outlandish? There may be some major town misdirection going on here by the people trying to "assume" 3, and listing their suspects in groups of 3. Maybe that's why they picked nmillar, to confirm there wasn't, as Ghost was more likely to be protected (leading scumhunter on the first day). It's nigh impossible to say without access to their chat. But this whole thing smells fishy and rather coordinated.

I agree with the bit that Orryynno looks suspicious, though, and concede that his votes on me are as well. I'm not affiliated with him, however, and already suspected him as stated earlier. It could have been on anyone. I suggested to investigate him because he was mentioned in Damnation's post, but that was entirely contingent on Damnation flipping Mafia as he had claimed. Of course it would be! If he was Mafia and had named his targets, we would have been nearly in the home free, and would just have to figure out which parts of the claim was true. I certainly believed Damnation's claim. And yes, if he was a Godfather and came up clean, it would have been a bit more complex, but there was as much a chance of that as nmillar or Ghost. More, since he had directly named them as accomplices.

... Haha, I got a "you're post is too long" error. Can someone please post something so I can post my 2nd post and head off for lunch? :P

Posted so you can continue, also, it's OrryyRRo not OrryyNNo.

Sorry Orryyrro :( Now Ghost:

I liked your posts and felt they were strongly town in D1, but I think your play in D2 has done a total 180, and not for the betterment of town.

This strikes me as testing the waters for a potential mislynch. I'm not the only one you call out in #178, you list other suspects too, but your reasons are basically
a) Too townie logical fallacy, and
b) "Loads" of bandwagoning, which is outright false, since I only voted once outside of RVS, and he was the lynchwagon, and at that time I was pushing his wagon with a scumslip. I note you haven't acknowledged this point since I brought it up in #181.

Funny that from your post analysis, the two people you have voted for in D2 so far up till this point (You voted baz in #189, me in #193, and said this in #198) were people you started a new bandwagon on, based on suspicions you had listed earlier. And you acknowledge his long post but simply glossed over my refutation when I pointed out you were dead wrong. Well here's a long post back for you. ;)

And again here. How do you know there's even a roleblocker? And I can see the explanation of Orryyrro re: the asking for investigations, but considering the reason he got into hot water in the first place was a random vote on someone, that seems like something rather too complex for the Mafia to orchestrate, especially since Damnation and nmillar were not Mafia (and had random voted before him). How did the Mafia get them to vote Roosh so Orry could vote him too and get suspicious and then cleared? How did they get Damnation, a now-confirmed townie, to pick him as the "innocent" so that he can get investigated and cleared? That theory fell apart at the seams when Damnation flipped town. So that smells to me more of an earnest attempt to clear his name, though I think his other play still makes him suspicious overall. But to not only know that there are 3 scum, but be able to guess who they are and also what roles they have?

Again, you call bandwagoning as my scummy reason, when I only accused and voted one player on D1 (because it blew up and he claimed scum so quickly) outside reaction fishing on Roosh's vote in RVS, which I explained and you said you were satisfied with. What gives? It seems like you're trying to off your counterpart on town side. And then you slap another dlsclaimer on it that you can point back to later when I flip town.

Underlines mine. This smells very heavily of two things.
1) You've already started two bandwagons anyway, so it's not that you are afraid of starting witch hunts, but that you are afraid of starting witch hunts on certain targets. A lot of what you have done in Day 2 is like "I think this person is scum, buuuut.. I don't want to vote him first. I want to see if others agree." or "I can't decide if Vitek's town or not.. he's kinda town, kinda scum", "Typhoon's suspicious but not suspicious enough", etc. You're blatantly fence-sitting and waiting to see where the town comes down on certain targets, using their arguments (ie, baz's on me) to then start a mislynchwagon on them despite your repeated sayings to the contrary.

2) You're playing a very heavy game of Appeal to Emotion. You keep saying, "Oh, woe be me, I mislynched and now everyone hates me, so I need to be more wishy washy on everything I do." No. If you are town, you have to turn that back around because it makes you look awful. You state that you lost a lot of respect for your mislynch, but who has actually said that in response to your Day 1? No one! Where are you even coming up with this from? It's like you're trying to drag the town in following you anyway but putting up big disclaimers that you may be wrong, on every corner. Of course you may be wrong. I may be. But that's part of Mafia.

More underlined Appeal to Emotion here, in very heavy doses. You are well within your rights to vote me (even if I don't think you had a reason since you didn't address my refutation at all) and I think you have a great point on the bandwagoning on your Typhoon's suspicions here, but again, I repeat, from all this, what jumps up at me is that either you are scum and trying to subtly influence your town to vote along with you by emotionally feeling sorry for you, and/or doing major fence-sitting so you can easily switch claims and reads later and point back to this, or you are town and really, really feeling bad about Damnation, in which case I have to say with the best of intentions, even if you're going to lynch me for this, but please wake up and stop doing this, because I highly doubt town has discredited you in the least from your D1 play. He brought it onto himself with the scum claim. Lynch All Liars gets him right there.

But you can't ignore the rest of your suspects on the first day just because some turned up dead and innocent. Are you implying that if you lynch any one of your D2 suspects, or we get nightkilled, then you automatically clear the survivors as town and move on to Day 3 with everyone else? Of course not, some of them flipping town does not at all clear the rest.

Huge. Post. WOW.

Okay, let's just get one of your points out of the way now. Every last example of the "Appeal to Emotion" bits was accompanied with a well-cloaked finger pointed my way. Obscurity served you well until now. But as I made abundantly clear in my posts, I do not want another mislynch. That is my only reason for acting the way I am. I do not think we can AFFORD another mislynch, and I do not think that pushing the town onward like a pick of rabid wolves is a good idea, especially because I have been VERY wrong before. I am not going to go on the aggressive, and for good damn reason.

Not hunting Orryyrro is because -- even though you may not think so -- I have already noticed a lot of doubt in my ability. It's not that most of the players think I'm not town or anything, but I can tell they think I'm damned crazy and when I start putting the jackboot down they're going to pull back. Not because I'm Mafia pushing for a mislynch, but because I'm Town who has no idea what the hell I'm doing.

Now. My suspicion of you is driven by a lot of cloaked finger-pointing behind well-reasoned posts. I notice that often times the reasoning is lifted wholesale from other posts (hence bandwagoned reasoning), and that gives me pause. I notice that certain players take your lead, namely Orryyrro and Vitek. They follow where you gesture to. Bazilisek was the one who drew my attention to the directing nature of your posts.

How do I know there's a Roleblocker? I don't. I guessed -- read the post again. I said "probably Roleblocker." Nicely obfuscated FoS there.

Also if you read my post, you'll notice I never once said Damnation had a single damned thing to do with Orryyrro looking scummy or having his name cleared. Why, oh why are you making things up out of whole cloth? I don't think that the RVS has much or anything to do with the state of Orryyrro's scumminess now, he just did what any mafia player would do: he saw a chance to cement his place as town, and he took it by the throat and beat the everloving crap out of it.

As for my supposed fence-sitting, refer to my first response paragraph. I'm not fence-sitting, I'm avoiding an ill-fated witch-hunt. An ill-fated witch-hunt that you seem to want to happen, judging by your continued urging for me to return to my previous style.

Why don't we turn the ill-fated witch-hunt your way?

Confirm vote.