bazilisek: Alright, then, let's get this over with. Sorry for length.

The Rooshandar Situation

I have no idea why Roosh outed his ability when he did, but the votecount confirmed it's real. This alone is almost definite proof Roosh is town. The doublevote ability in the hands of the mafia would be an extremely powerful weapon -- not as much now, but the closer you get to the endgame, the more game-breaking it is. And we can be sure Zchinque didn't design a game with such an obvious flaw. Theoretically, this power could be balanced by some restriction, but I don't see that as very likely in this game, just one or two notches above basic level. Therefore, Roosh is town.

Why did the mafia keep him alive, then? Simple: this power is not threatening to them at this stage. This is something they definitely will want to get rid of later on, but right now, it's just as likely Roosh will target a townie with his doublevote -- he's as much in the dark as we are. He could even prove to be an asset to them now. So it's clearly beneficial to let him live for the time being.

There is one thing here no one commented on, but which really worries me. Roosh's claim in post #48 includes this observation: "I know that almost everybody else gets 1 vote.". Could you elaborate on that "almost", Roosh?

There's a Ghost Everywhere You Look

Ghost has quickly stolen the spotlight for herself and she's apparently determined to keep it that way. This aggressive playstyle she has chosen, jumping around, rattling everyone's cages and so on, that is distinctly towny, and in fact, can be quite helpful, even if somewhat annoying. The mafia wouldn't, in general, want to draw attention to themselves this much; it's inevitable that after a few mislynches originating from a single person, the town will become extremely suspicious. This strategy is simply not sound from the long-term perspective. That, of course, is no definite proof, but it means it is considerably more likely that Ghost is town than not.

If you ask me, we can afford to let this continue for some time and see how it develops. There is an air of suspicion over Ghost and will remain there; there will be opportunities to deal with her later, if necessary. Because something much more interesting has happened here.

The Death of Jailer Jack

Nmillar. Started the first random wagon because of that unfortunate Dark Heresy business. Didn't really say much else. So why him? I say this: remember Ghost's main list of suspects? Orryrro, nmillar, Damnation. Two of those people are dead now, and I don't quite think that's coincidence. And one more thing, the mafia was really, really lucky to hit our jailer; his loss is going to hurt us.

Now, robbeasy outlined a nice theory in #188 which happens to correspond a lot with mine, except he's barking up the wrong tree: the mafia wouldn't bother constructing a plot against Roosh, because it is well-nigh impossible to get him lynched now -- his towniness is simply that obvious. But the principle robb outlines ("Instead they looked at who he had targeted and decided to throw more suspicion on him by lynching his other target), that's what I think is going on here. And yes, it's somewhat WIFOM, but what isn't?

Ghost undoubtedly discredited herself in the eyes of the town with the Damnation lynch yesterday. All the hard-to-argue evidence and similar claims are downright hilarious now. And a beautiful, tempting move appears in front of the mafia: kill nmillar, whom they know to be town. With the second person on the list dead and turned up innocent, Ghost must look like a complete tool. A push here and a push there, and the town could quite easily be persuaded to lynch Ghost. Two birds with one stone for the mafia, their hands squeaky clean.

And a side effect? The third person on the list, Orryrro, is by extension looking a little less suspicious. Neat, that.

What Shall We Do, Drunken Sailor?

I do agree with a FoS: Typhoon. Silence isn't good for anyone, and what is acceptable on day one is less so on day two. But there is nothing even remotely definite against him at the moment, and most certainly no reason to lynch.

Ghost, don't take it personally, but at this point, if you said someone was definite one hundred percent confirmed scum, I'd probably take it as circumstantial evidence they are not. You have been wrong before a lot. Which is why I don't really see a reason to react to your claims ("I was wrong but you were right and that makes you very suspicious!!!").

This is not to say you're wrong all the time. Because I see Orryrro as more suspicious by the minute. Let me count the ways: 1) the vote/unvote jess in rapid succession with very little reason given (#72, #91); 2) jumping on the Damnation bandwagon in #123 without bothering to offer any reasoning at all (at this point, Damnation was sort of defending himself and Orryrro against Ghost, which makes this even more strange); 3) and this is most interesting, the insistence of having the cop (if any) check out Orry. This was started by jess in #154, and then Orry decided to remind the cop of it once again in #162, just before nightfall. And I don't know about you, but I don't like that one bit. As Ghost correctly (see?) pointed this out in #165, this reeks of a Godfather in the house.

Therefore:

vote Orryrro
pretty damn big FoS jesskitten

Now this post has already grown to a monstrous size, so I'll stop here for now. If I think of something else I'd like to say now, I'll do so later. There is one more character here I consider fairly suspicious, but I'll keep that for myself until I have more and better evidence.