Wrong. The chances of me, CSPVG and a killer all targeting the same person is quite remote (1 in 42), so it is much more logical to assume that the night kill was blocked as a result of me jailing Telika.

again, it depends on how you see it.

You jail the potential victim (1/12)
You jail the potential killer (1/12)

RSVP jumps on and makes a claim that support either, his support on the jailing is also his own self-proclaimed town power role to bring attention away from himself. ie.e we have only his word that he witnessed this. what if he lies?

You calculated this before knowing that CSPVG would back your claim ?

can we have a vote count please?

Just trying to make sure how many votes pazzer have now, so no mistakes are made before he can respond.

amok: I addressed a question to you in post 821, and you've still not answered it( that I could see). Would you be so kind as to respond to it?

Furthermore, I've been waiting for Pazzer to say something after his day-role claim. I'll wait for something to happen on that front, but I was most assuredly vote for someone by tomorrow.

I would like to second the call for a vote count.

Sorry, missed this.

I got a message to pick a number between 1-5. I picked #2, and I never got any further messages or replies. That was the complete correspondence. Basically, the message was very short (10 words) and all I did in my reply was to type the number. This message is all I got.

I have no idea what it all means, nor can I elaborate any more, as I just do not have more information than this. I am hoping for something to happen in the next night to expand on this.

That's certainly a possibility. Still, the chance of me and the killer selecting the same player would be 1 in 143 (13 possible people for me to choose from, 11 possible people for the killer to choose from).

No, I calculated it while writing my previous post. I also didn't calculate it properly - the change of all three people choosing the same target would actually be 1/13 * 1/13 * 1/11 (mafia would not choose his buddy), so the actual chance of that particular series of events happening is an even more extreme 1 in 1859.

Yeah, but that is part of the fun in calculating odds like this

one the one hand, you can say it is the chance of 2 players selecting the same player - on the other hand you can also say it is the chance for you to jail either the killer or the victim. i.e. the chance of you getting 1 person.

Both of these are just as correct as each other, but they give very different odds.

Small nitpicking. Your analysis assumes it's a random chance. If someone claimed doctor, then the likelihood of him being targeted by 3 people would be a lot higher than the above. So, did you randomly choose Telika, or was there something he said that made you think he's a likely target? And if likely target, was it to block or protect?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TKK6d3-h2U

But you use it as a way to defend the "logic" of an accusation that has been made before CSPVG's claim.

In other words, it's an a posteriory rationalisation of the dishonest interpretation that we were pointing at.

It's still 1 in 143 if you exclude CSPVG, as I already pointed out in my previous post.

I agree wholeheartedly with Robbeasy, which is also one of the prime reasons I am in favor of lynching amok, because he has not just lied, he have muddied the waters and acted in manner that can only be helpful to scum. But seeing as that meet little response from others (with exceptions) thus going nowhere, I have switched to my next in line favorite and top of scum suspects. Flubbucket. But it is frustrating, that while I want to stick to flub as the lynch, Pazzer is acting in a manner that doesn't help. Off-handedly and apparently claiming a day-cop, before vanishing very close to the deadline. While I know Pazzer has a tendency to vanish, this just bugs me.

However I must point out that I found much more credibility in Telika's plea for him to be lynched then nmillar, than I did in flubbuckets which I am still not sure was just sarcasm/joke in regards to Telika's and was delivered in a much less serious manner. Telika even went the extra mile to vote for himself and he was the first to do it.

But would you be willing to vote for flubbucket if it came down to that - again all pending on if Pazzer finally will post again.. :S

Yea, that was the frustration I expressed earlier as well. Not sticking to anything and just satisfied discussing same things in a loop, with added extra whenever they appeared. But never sticking to one thing to get a conclusion from everyone. I am hopeful though that the pazzer/flubbucket will at least gain some notice..

Claiming that you lied, is just as much as a claim as the dog one. Thus different claims.. If I first said I was superman, and then said I was not. Then I made two claims, one for being superman and one against being superman.

I believe so and yea its unbelievable. Though amok's latest discussion with nmillar gains him some town points from me.

There is 1/number_of_players_minus_two chances for the murderer to target the jailed person, and 1/number_of_players_minus_one chances for the jailed person to be the murderer.

And this is not taking in account the possibility of deliberate jailing-and-nokill, or the jailing-and-other-kill-disruption.

And this is not taking in account your history of scumminess in this game.

In other words, no, there is no less reason to think you haven't saved someone from a killer than to think you have incapacited a killer. And the fact that you try to build up fallacies towards this show that you are not honestly attempting to hunt scum and analyse a situation, but trying to dishonestly build up a pre-decided case.