Let's bold it then.

Unvote DarkoD13

Now. Game slows down a lot. I'll just clarify/update my own position :

I consider that Vitek can't be scum - unless mafia self-targets (are there mafia roles that do this ?). Because Handkerchief Killer targetted him.

I consider CSPVG and P1na to be very unlikely scum, because I don't see what deliberate mafia strategy could lead to the decision of targetting a claimed untargettable. If Darko is mafia, I don't think mafia would target him (see above). If Darko is town, then he probably tells the truth so, knowing this, I don't think mafia would have tried. If he's not on mafia's list, there's also the possibility he's lying because neutral, but I don't think the mafia would have cared enough to investigate. So, even if Darko isn't scum, CSPVG and P1na are probably town. If he turns out mafia, then it's the Vitek situation, I'd consider them confirmed town.

I believe that there are two mafiosi and three townies amongst those five players : JMich, RedBaron, Rodzaju, DarkoD13 and Flubbucket.

One of the two mafiosi has non-lethal night actions (used on the non-dead Vitek) and drops handkerchiefs on his scenes of activity. I consider that he is unlikely to be Darko (who seems to have already a night action in the form of "commuting") and that he is unlikely to be Flubbucket (who seems to already have a distinctive element in the form of Lavender perfume). So :

I believe that the mafioso with the monogrammed handkerchief is one of these three players : RedBaron, Rodzaju, JMich.

I am still influenced by my flavor text (even if Darko considers it silly) towards considering Constance Drabble slightly less likely than JMich and Rodzaju to be scum. It would simply surprise me, plot-wise (as she insisted, going as far as calling the chief of police, to have me coming on holidays here). It's not impossible that there is some tortuous criminal motive beyond this, but my first interpretation, by default, is to imagine her role as townie.

So, I'd hop on any wagon targetting JMich or Rodzaju. I might take the initiative to vote for one after a few more exchanges. I have been wondering which one as the situation was :

- JMich suspect by default but having a very affiliaton-neutral behaviour in my eyes.

- Rodzaju suspect by default but having produced both townish posts (the frances alibi) and scummy posts (his unapologetically self-contradictory "reasonning" about me) which balance each others out.

Now, the difference between them two is the fact that Rodzaju "clears" RedBaron, by claiming that he has both Constance Drabble's survival and Town victory as personal victory conditions (did I get it right ? has he even mentionned town victory as a requirement ?). Which means that if Rodzaju tells the truth, then RedBaron is town. If Rodzaju lies, in my opinion this says nothing about RedBaron.

So if we lynch JMich and he flips town, the Handkerchief Killer will be either RedBaron and Rodzaju. If we lynch Rodzaju and he flips town, the Handkerchief Killer will be JMich, because we can assume that Rodzaju said the truth. We will have two flips.

I'll probably vote Rodzaju because of this. Like for JMich, there's between 1/2 and 1/3 chances for him to be scum, but in Rod's case we obtain something whatever he flips. While a mislynch on JMich would make us progress less.

This is where I stand for now. Now, I don't know if something more will emerge from Joe's verifications, or discussions on identity items. Although these would concern mostly the night actions (in particular P1na's), I prefer to cast the vote after those last points are being clarified and a strategy has been more or less agreed on.

Just to answer this; I already said I had so early on when P1na was first discussed - and mentioned it again later. I also said that I doubted he would be using that item on himself as he apparently did with other items.

Nice observation right there. It does solidify further my intention to vote JMich - but the note about Telika not being part of any main lynches is also well made, as I had the notion he did take part - which I guess given the point of view could make for an argument.

Those votes also make patterns that can be taken as suggestive, but more points to some being a lot more willing to use their vote on a lynch than others, which does not correlate with how active they've been (with the exception of JMich).

Confirming roles would be a better statement. He confirmed that Telika was behind a locked door during night 1, he confirmed that Darko couldn't be targeted. First one he had no reason to do, since he could never mention visiting Telika, or if a watcher/tracker accused him of it, he could say that he got a failed message and leave it at that. As for Darko, I assume Telika is telling the truth, so CSPVG did help confirm Darko's untargetability.

Thank you again.

I do indeed have an item, that my first reaction whenever I read it is to yell that it's misspelled. Weirdly enough, it's not, but that is what years of WoW will do to you. No, I'm not telling what it is yet.


Only candidate I felt comfortable voting for was Zchinque, though I would probably vote for Amok as well. But while I was mulling over it, he was lynched.
I do wait for Rodzaju's answer to your question before voting for him though.

When I read all of your posts with their high level of critical thinking and deduction, I realize I'm the pretty one in the room.

At this point in time, I think that a list of items will not include some of the items you found, since the one with the handkerchief will be unwilling to say it's his. So we will most likely end up with 5 items you haven't encountered, all of which will need verification. And should there be a mafia goon, I'm not sure if he will leave his item when he goes out for a night kill, so he may also be safe in telling his real item.

So I can't really say I can see a misuse, though I can't say I see a use of the list either. If P1na finds a handkerchief, it doesn't matter what the owner said his item was. So only benefit would be if P1na finds an item different from what the owner claimed to have.

Do we have a list of items found and claimed items?

Uh yes that's a bit the point. Why "only" ?

Not being sure whether p1na or me will survive the night, mafia will probably lie about these elements. To be sure to not let an identified element in front of a future murder scene, or simply to hide their handkerchief.

In both cases, p1na being able to confirm an item, or finding an unlisted item, would be an interesting hint about the affiliation or honesty of his target.

Guys, crazy week. Work, planning, work, a beer, and more work. And it's not getting better anytime soon, as tomorrow I have a busy Bratislava-Budapest-Madrid-Gasteiz schedule (with work in the middle, I'm counting on you Budapest airport free wifi!) and then on Saturday I have a whole day of drinking and no internet. Which will be really nice, don't get me wrong.

That said, I'll try to catch up tonight as it will be the last chance I have in a while to do so, and post my thoughts. Luckily expectations on me are on the low side, but I'll do my best to come up with at least a wisecrack. But, if there's anybody who wants to address me/has already done so and doesn't want to risk me missing on it, this is your chance. Because I have a busy schedule like an awesome VIP, pineapples are cool like that.

Assuming that it is the item in question, as we so far have little knowledge if Joe have made the mechanic to function like it. It would make sense, as I don't really see much purpose to P1na role otherwise.. which I guess in a way further confirms P1na as town, assuming your claim is true - but I guess that also goes reverse: If P1na role is true, and thats pretty much a proven fact, then his role only make sense in connection with yours (as I see it). If it is then a very odd scum ability combination or a much more useful town role I can't be certain of, but at least it does add more town points.

As for Rodzaju, I at least believe some more of his claim, as his "waiting for me to die of old age for inheritance" revealed that Joe had likely written my age wrong, so that must be true to some degree.

This is a bit tricky, as our identity items are not labelled as such in our PM, but are innocently placed in the flavor. If someone honestly intends to follow this strategy, that is, to disclose in advance the element that p1na would find, one has to be careful to mention all the unabiguously recognisable elements of his flavor. For instance, if I was to do it before P1na's investigation (and my own), I might have actually overlooked the talcum : it is mentionned "negatively", as something that Constance's men forgot to pack with my luggage, and it's only from the night results that I understood that I have some with me (probably brought along myself).

Actually it's even more subtle : as my PM explesses complains and annoyance at being forced to go on holidays, and at Constance having had my laundry pressed and packed by her men, a parenthesis stresses out that they haven't used talcum as they should have. In retrospect it seems obvious because it's a very spoecific element specifically mentionned, but still I'm not sure I would have guessed its importance. So, someone actually wanting to get confirmed by p1na would need to be attentive to that.

In my case, I should have been mentionning : talcum (because it's a personal thingy mentionned), laundry (it's also an element of mine that is mentionned), and writings (as I'm mentionned to like reading alone - in fact to be rather doing this, at home, than being on holidays with you lot - so maybe it could have meant that I was carrying a book).

What I'm expecting is some sort of "hey, telika, if you find something else than a handkerchief next to tonight's victim, it's not mine, because my flavor only lists the following : [list of scent, object, whatever]", along with "i am telling the truth, and the proof is that if p1na investigates me, he will find one of the following : [list of scent, object, whatever]".

I would like the remaining mafioso to have to navigate between these two charybde and scylla. The risk of telling the truth and me (if I'm alive) finding the object at some crime scene, or the risk of lying and having p1na (if alive) finding a totally different element in their room. As, right now, they can't know for sure who will die (first because they haven't discussed it, secondly because maybe things won't go according to plan), I don't know which strategy they'll follow, but they'd take a risk in both cases.

The only non-risky thing would be to not answer (or to play it "oops, sorry p1na, i really didn't expect THAT item to be the one, so I mentionned another" - but now that I gave an explicit exemple of how an item may be indirectly inserted in the flavor, this kind of excuse would seem pretty weak).

SO.

@ Flub, good idea bad idea ?
@ Darko, good idea bad idea ?
@ RedBaron, good idea bad idea ?
@ Rodzaju, good idea bad idea ?
@ JMich, good idea bad idea ?

yay, I got away with not having to think!

Not sure. I do have a feeling it's a bad idea, but willing to share. Especially if someone can give a compelling reason why it is a good idea.

OK, I had a quick look at things. I'm pretty tired and want to go to sleep soon, so I didn't have as deep of a read as I thought I would, but I at least got Telika's proposal and I see why the two of us are the ones with the highest risk of being killed.

First, I'm happy that I'm trusted so much, I'll say that much. So I'll trust Telika's info as well. And regarding the proposal, I feel it's not a bad idea.

If we mass claim items, we get to a situation where town members go honestly about it, but the mafia members are forced to lie. The handkerchief killer can't say his/her item is a handkerchief, as that would be like admitting to be mafia; and his lie would be exposed if I target him... which would have been anyway. So not much of a benefit there, he either outright confesses or he risks investigation just like without the massclaim. As for the other mafia, he would have to a) lie about his item, risking me targeting him and finding out it's a lie or b) tell the truth, risking having to carry an assassination by himself and Telika exposing his trace. Which means, mafia #2 can do whatever as long as mafia gets rid of the dangerous person.

And if I was them, considering I could potentially expose both members while Telika can only expose one, I would consider myself a priority target for mafia. Ugh.

I also would like to say that, in light of me not having been following the thread so much lately, I'm willing to take into consideration a target request for tonight. So instead of, say, trying to steal JMich's beret because it would look cool on me (or any other random reason I use for targeting people), I'll target whoever you guys ask me to provided enough people ask for it. Since my investigation seems pretty important now I'd feel bad if I do it at random and get nothing, while not contributing much to the thread either.

Well, as P1na puts it, the handkerchief thing will if that is the item be known in any case, but I guess seeing what every claims to have might be useful, though I've seen little relevance between roles and items. As scum will likely just NK P1na (We somehow should have managed to have this discussion, without knowing about him) it matters little in regard to him, but I guess the small chance that he does make it, gives a fair point to it.

If we are dealing with the before mentioned very unlikely scum combo or another mix where one is scum then I can imagine a scenario where scum can acquire a certain item to gain another ability/as a win condition or something similar. But it just sounds so far fetched I can't see the point. Another very unlikely option is that since we have only had a few results/compare actions, it is a possibility that all who claimed item and agreed with P1na about what he said they have are scum, and that his entire role is made up... So far flubbucket has confirmed his item, together with Telika. If this unlikely scenario is true that would make flubbucket, Telika and P1na the remaining scum, but its so unlikely, first we would have a town deserter + a 4 man scum team, secondly they would have to take the very bold risk that everyone had at least one item mentioned in their role PM (so far only amok have seemed doubtful as to his item, but he still had one). So although it would be a stroke of brilliance and luck, it is so out there that it is not an option.

That leaves basically only odd win-conditions or town affiliation, as I really can't see joe just making a utterly useless role for a scum hence win conditions as it reveals basically nothing about the characters themselves, as far as we can see from P1na's claims.

So I believe we can do the claim, if not then just because Telika's role might be dangerous enough to attract attention away from P1na, even if he somewhat have already fulfilled his part, the tracking of movements is still useful.

Just to make absolutely sure about my theory, should I be the one chosen for investigation, I won't specifically state my item, but instead describe it in a manner that should make it obvious that it will fit with what P1na finds.
I have two options for my item (as I have to mentioned "things"), and one is more likely than the other given the off-hand mention of it.
The first and least unlikely item option is the jewels, but as they are not specific I doubt they are the ones.
The other is medical in nature and as mention: P1na would not want to try the item, and if he did I guess he would lose a night-action, I take them (in the form of pills) sometimes on the recommendation of my doctor.

That should do, it leaves very few options as to what it is, but enough that one who did not know would have to guess. Does my reasoning for doing this make sense to you? Its just in the very minor chance that any of my unlikely scenario's is true, while still supporting the idea of the item claiming.

I am not entirely sure I follow P1na's reasoning, first it made sense and now it don't. How can you expose 2? You can no matter what expose the one with the hankerchief (in the most likely scenario for the mechanic) and your potential to be NK can lead Telika to trace who nightkilled you (as in I guess the hankerchief), but I don't see how you can expose 2? In fact you only have a chance to hit the right one - of course if we agree on the correct target for you to investigate then they will have to NK you to avoid it and they might not even have to worry if our pool of options for you to investigate is so off target that we won't hit anyway.

Funny thing is, now that I am writing this I've some to realize another very unlikely option as to how Telika can do what he does, yet still be scum (do correct me if this have some obvious flaw): If Telika himself is the killer and knows he visit people then he could claim the handkerchief without trouble and for the rest be collaborating with fellow scum. Its just such an elaborate method to make a false claim and its a method that would require P1na to be part of it as well, where he would actually have to have a role that could steal items, just so Telika could false claim? Or town would need some other way of discovering what was left at the scene of the crime in order for it to make sense, which again returns us to the situation that flubbucket would also have to be scum for this who thing to work and the same unlikely balance mix is created. So yea, found the flaw myself - ignore or consider if there is a way I am overlooking where this works :P

Anyway enough odd theories, in my book most likely scum is to be found among these players:
Vitek, JMich or Rodzaju.