L-3...

We should make sure everybody's cool with Zchinque's plan before getting too far (since it only takes 5 to lynch and there are 8 of us).

Let's not get too ahead of ourselves, shall we?

I want to reread the plan carefully and make sure I don't see any holes in there, deliberate or not. That will take some time. And I want others to have the same opportunity. There's no hurry quite yet.

The biggest hole is that there could be no mafia night kill tonight. If they do indeed get their kills on alternate nights, then tonight is the turn of the Gambiani family!

Shouldn't make too much difference though, and it's the best plan we've got.

Unvote Zchinque, vote SirPrimalform.

That actually does not matter at all.

I went over Zchinque's plan and I am satisfied. You did a very fine job there, Z. Here's the exact same thing from a different perspective (more or less what I wrote for myself to check the logic), I just developed the later parts of it a bit more:

Day four:
ZCH hammers SPF, both die [6 alive: JEF, RED, BAZ, NFY, DAM, NMI]

Night four:
- JEF kills RED
- RED *protects* JEF
- BAZ *protects* and /blocks/ NMI
- NFY investigates DAM or NMI
[5 alive: *JEF*, BAZ, NFY, DAM, */NMI/*]
A: scum kills, B: scum does not kill

Day five, variant A:
Scum kills and four people come out of the night. (100% alive: JEF, NMI; dead: one of BAZ, NFY, DAM). Conclusions:
NMI is @town (couldn't NK; even if BAZ was killed, roleblocks are resolved first)
JEF is @town (killed RED, couldn't NK another)
(We also get one reliable cop result from NMI, possibly one semi-reliable from NFY. Cross-checking NMI and NFY's info could clear NFY.)

Variant A1, DAM is alive:
Day six: @NMI+@JEF+BAZ/NFY lynch DAM [3 alive: @NMI, @JEF, BAZ/NFY]
Night six: @JEF kills BAZ/NFY [2 alive, @NMI and @JEF, both confirmed town: victory]
(if scum-BAZ blocks JEF to prevent his death, day seven follows in which @NMI and @JEF lynch BAZ)

Variant A2, DAM is dead:
Day six: @NMI+@JEF+NFY lynch BAZ [3 alive: @NMI, @JEF, NFY]
Night six: @JEF kills NFY [2 alive, @NMI and @JEF, both confirmed town: victory]

(There's also variant A3 which is the same as A2 but lynches NFY instead of BAZ; A2 is better because scum-BAZ cannot try any block/protect shenanigans on night six. Not that he would, of course.)

Day five, variant B: (this is where things get tricky)
Scum did not kill. Possible reasons include:
* no nightkill was submitted
* no nightkill was submitted because scum was doing something else
* it was the Gambiani's turn to kill and they were wiped out already
* nightkill target was */NMI/* (unlikely; such move has no benefit for scum)
* nightkill target was *JEF* (unlikely; such move has no benefit for scum)
* *JEF* is scum and his kill was actually the scumkill
* */NMI/* is scum and couldn't NK as he was blocked
[5 alive: JEF, BAZ, NFY, DAM, NMI]
Cop results are not necessarily reliable, night actions do not confirm anyone as town.
Day five:
NMI is lynched [4 alive: JEF, BAZ, NFY, DAM]
Night five:
- JEF kills DAM
- BAZ *protects* and /blocks/ NFY
[3 alive: JEF, BAZ, */NFY/*]
a: scum kills, b: scum does not kill

Variant Ba:
[2 alive: BAZ and either JEF or NFY]
!scum-BAZ wins (JEF and NFY are town, as there is no way they could have performed the nightkill if they are scum -- NFY was blocked by @BAZ and JEF was busy killing DAM)

Variant Bb:
[3 alive: JEF, BAZ, NFY]
A very traditional endgame follows, where one of the following happens:
Day six: JEF+BAZ lynch NFY [If either JEF or BAZ are scum, scum wins.]
Day six: JEF+NFY lynch BAZ [If either JEF or NFY are scum, scum wins.]
Day six: NFY+BAZ lynch JEF [If either NFY or BAZ are scum, scum wins.]

So basically, this plan leads to a guaranteed town win, unless the remaining scum is one of JEF, NFY or BAZ, and even if that is the case, there is still a pretty big chance town pulls it off (basically it's absolutely hopeless for town only if I am scum, and quite frankly, at this point I don't see how anyone can think that -- but feel free to, of course).

It's important to stress that if at any point something happens that this plan does not account for (like for example someone being blocked who had no reason to be blocked; we do not know what role the remaining scum has, and cannot hope to guess, or when the person JEF was supposed to kill survives the night), it is stopped immediately and re-evaluated. And it is absolutely imperative that all townies stick to the plan without any deviation. No spur of the moment heroism. Yes, this gets a lot of people killed. But this is pure pragmatism here: remember townies win with town, even when dead.

Also, the whole thing falls completely apart if there are more than 1 scum left. But if there are, I don't see how we can get out of this alive, anyway.

Wait it hit me one thing.. What if the mafia just kills Baz? Nothing is protecting him.. and if they kill him they create uncertainty towards if nmillar was blocked (dunno which applies first, kill or block). Also it removes towns option to block someone. Might just be something I missed, but does the plan take that into calculation?

See my post and the link to wiki there: blocks are traditionally/usually resolved first.

And a post scriptum, something that just occurred to me: in variant Bb (the 3-person endgame), BAZ is pretty much confirmed town, because if he were scum, he'd most likely opt for the Ba route and have won the game already, and everyone still alive (BAZ, NFY, JEF) has enough flavour from their actions on night five to cross-reference their way out of the quandary pretty easily.

Block is applied first, as baz mentions above.

Thanks nmillar and Baz for clearing it up :) Though typically I posted it just as Baz post about it appeared. Was waiting for posting time to run out so I could reply. Anyway an interesting thing I am glad you bring to attention Baz:

What would happen in that case (mean for the plan) and what could be the possible reasons for this to happen? I believe it would be good to consider as many aspects while all is still alive.

Bump for great justice!

This looks good in principle, and has done from the beginning, but I want to be sure we've figured out all the angles first... I really don't want us to start off on this route then discover something's gone horribly horribly wrong during the night and we're up the creek - particularly if the logical types get killed off and the rest of us end up floundering and manipulated by a sneaky mafia...

More from me later...

Oh, absolutely. That's why I'm not voting yet. Everyone should be comfortable with the plan before we start (well, except scum, I guess). I have analysed it quite thoroughly and found nothing, but I don't want everyone to just take Zchinque's and mine word on it.

Correct. At least that's the standard procedure.
According to jefe, his flavour when I was block/protecting him told him quite explicitly what was going on; flavour is another huge aspect which the plan can't really take into account, as there are far too many variables in there. And that, incidentally applies to the whole situation: the possibilities in this game are literally infinite; you cannot draw up a plan that would cover every single eventuality and it would be rather futile to try. Surprises happen, and this game has been chock full of them so far.

But yes, I acknowledge the plan does somewhat expect me to be town. But look, Rodzaju's lynch flavour explicitly told us there is "Alcada's top surgeon" named Denton Walters running around, and no one has counterclaimed me so far (even though there were plenty of opportunities to do so). And other than myself, the only protective role town has, according to the claims we've heard, is Red Baron's one shot protection. With the number of killing roles on the loose, me being scum does seem rather unfair on town, doesn't it?

It didn't mention the alignment though, but I do agree that I find it unlikely - and that if your scum then your doing a great job - Although a bit of a luck shot too, since Rodzaju's madness basically meant a freepass into being accepted as town. Anyway while I also agree with the protection aspect, one should remember that Rodzaju was a backup - So he could become a protective role. I don't consider it likely. But again - one never knows.

I would also like to hear some more about the "if jef's kill fails" notion.

I'd like to propose a slight change to the plan:
Damnation and nmillar are switched around. so that Baz docblocks Damnation tonight.

Why:
The only standard role I can think of that the town loses to is if the last scum is a redirector (The scumster redirects Jefe's kill to someone else, everyone goes WTF in the morning, chaos ensues). Damnation has no proven role at all obviously, so if he is scum the chance that he is a redirector is higher than nmillar, if he scum, being a redirector, as he has a proven information role.

I really doubt that there is a redirector, since we've noticed nothing of it, but it's an incremental advantage.

Depends on whether or not there is another kill.

If there is no kill at all:
The mafia has probably fudged with Jefe's kill. No-lynch, and repeat the same night actions. If the mafia keep preventing the kill, the information roles should hopefully be able to win the game for the town.

If there is a kill, but Jefe's target is still alive:
Four possibilities:
Jefe is actually the last scum, and we don't know how the double kill last night happened.
There are two mafia left. Town is doomed.
The mafia is allowed to both kill and perform another action. Town is doomed.
Jefe has willingly chosen not to kill, and ruined the whole plan, and doomed the town.

So, if there is a kill, but Jefe's target is still alive -> Lynch Jefe.