Red_Baron: Just one thing: I would like you Zchinque to post the scene for the remaining people not considered in he is scum thing. I consider them very unlikely candidates, but for all sake we need to be certain. Those remaining being: Jef and Baz.
I hadn't actually gone through the scenarios for them being scum, I just assumed that would mean an auto-loss for the town. Not quite so, as it turns out.
The possible scenarios are much more complex than if any of the other six players are mafia. Going through them has been a very interesting, but also mentally very draining, challenge.
If Baz is scum I won't actually go through the possible lines of play if Baz is scum. The reason for this is simple - If Baz is scum and makes all the right decisions, there is no way he can lose. If he makes a wrong decision at some point, there is a chance the town can nail him. As such, in the unlikely event that Baz is mafia, I don't want to hand him the win - I'd rather give the town a sliver of a fighting chance. All I can say is that you should stick to the plan as it is laid out, until you notice something is off. If you do, kill Baz. However, make
very, very sure that you know what you're doing. If you think something is off, analyze the situation, go through all the possibilities. Only if it doesn't add up should you kill Baz.
That said, if Baz is scum, all the info he needs is out in the open, so I would expect him to win.
Jefe is scum If Jefe is scum, he is a Serial Killer. In that case there is one mafia and one serial killer left against the town. So all the above scenario are possible permutations.
However! If at any time a dead scum shows up and the game doesn't end. Immediately lynch Jefe. If the scum turns up dead to a lynch, Baz should block Jefe the following night. As long as the last mafa isn't among the last three players alive, SK-Jefe can't win. Actually, let's go through all the permutations to make sure my point comes across.
I am mafia I die today when I hammer SPF. It's unlikely that you will then follow this plan, but I'll still list it for posterity.
Baz should immediately switch from the proposed plan, and block Jefe. Then the town lynch Jefe next morning for a town win.
SPF is mafia He dies when I hammer him. Baz switches targets and blocks Jefe. You lynch Jefe in the morning for a town win.
R_B is mafia R_B is killed at night by Jefe. Since the game isn't over, you lynch Jefe in the morning for a town win.
nmillar is mafia Nmillar is blocked by Baz, and lynched in the morning. Once he turns up scum and the game isn't over, Baz blocks Jefe the following night. Jefe is then lynched in the morning for a scum win.
Damnation is mafia Since nmillar and Jefe are protected, and R_B is already assigned to be killed by Jefe, he has three options: 1) Kill Baz 2) Kill NFY 3) Kill no one.
1) You wake up with four players left. There being two nightkills confirms nmillar as town, since he was blocked by Baz. nmillar, NFY, and Jefe Lynch Damnation. Once he flips mafia and the game isn't over, the town is screwed since Baz is dead. Jefe picks off either nmillar or NFY for a SK win.
2) You wake up with four players left. There being two nightkills confirms nmillar as town, since he was blocked by Baz. nmillar, Baz, and Jefe lynch Damnation. Once he flips mafia and the game isn't over, Baz blocks Jefe at night. There will be no nightkill. nmillar and Baz lynch Jefe in the morning for a town win.
3) You wake up with five players left. The lack of a non-Jefe nightkill points the finger squarely at nmillar, and he is promptly lynched. The game then goes to night with four players left, and Damnation is killed by Jefe. In this case, Damnation's choice for a kill has meaningful implications. He can kill either 3a) Jefe or 3b) Baz (NFY is protected by Baz, see "NFY is scum scenario")
3a) Both SK-Jefe and mafia-Damnation show up dead in the morning. Town win.
3b) Mafia-Damnation and Baz show up dead in the morning. SK-Jefe wins a two-man endgame vs. NFY.
NFY is mafia Since nmillar and Jefe are protected, and R_B is already assigned to be killed by Jefe, he has three options: 1) Kill Baz 2) Kill Damnation 3) Kill no one.
1) You wake up with four players left. There being two nightkills confirms nmillar as town, since he was blocked by Baz. nmillar, NFY, and Jefe lynch Damnation. Once night falls, Jefe kills NFY, and NFY kills either 1a) Jefe or 1b) nmillar
1a) SK-Jefe and Mafia-NFY both show up dead in the morning. Nmillar claims the win for the town.
1b) Mafia-NFY and nmillar both show up dead in the morning. Jefe claims the SK-win.
2) You wake up with four players left. There being two nightkills confirms nmillar as town, since he was blocked by Baz. nmillar, Baz, and Jefe lynch NFY. Once NFY flips mafia and the game isn't over, Baz blocks Jefe. nmillar and Baz lynch Jefe in the morning for a town win.
3) You wake up with five players left. The lack of a non-Jefe nightkill points the finger squarely at nmillar, and he is promptly lynched. The game then goes to night with four players left, and NFY is blocked by Baz. Once day rolls around, Baz and Jefe lynch NFY. Then the result is up to the mod. He can either declare the game a draw, as neither player can lynch the other, and Baz can block Jefe forever, or he can give Jefe the SK-win in a two-man endgame. Which option he chooses probably depends on the very exact wording of SK-Jefe's win condition.
[i]Baz is mafia
I won't go through the exact scenarios, for reasons stated above, but in the unlikely event that Baz is mafia and Jefe is SK, the town can't win. No way, no how.
So, if Jefe is SK:
If the last mafia is one of: Myself, SPF, R_B or nmillar -> The Town wins.
If the last mafia is: Baz -> The Town loses.
If the last mafia is: Damnation or NFY -> The mafia can't win, but get to play kingmaker and decide whether the Town wins, or Jefe wins.
NOTE! I consider going through these scenarios as an intellectual challenge. They are not and should not be used as strong points to not follow the plan laid out.
I am virtually certain that Baz is town. If he isn't, frankly, he deserves the scum win.
I'm not as certain about Jefe being town, but almost. Him being SK seems very unlikely to me, due to game balance.
@Damnation & NFY: If you are mafia, you can't win if the town goes through with this plan. However, on the off-chance that Jefe is a Serial Killer, there is the possibility that you get to play kingmaker. It is then fully and completely up to you who wins. Make the right decision.