Risk/reward. You don't do it, you're passing up the chance to get two mafia in one day/night cycle. You do, you're risking that Baz and/or Nmillar are in fact really skilled mafia.

Or, you could give me free reign. After all, both my night targets turned out to be mafia, and I was the only one who recognized that Rod was indeed town. So either I'm extremely lucky, or I have good judgement.

Haven't we two basically confirmed each other's story several times over now?

I'll share my reads right now:
1. SirPrimalform -- very mildly leaning town, but his presence makes me deeply uneasy
2. Zchnique -- a mystery
3. Red Baron -- his story seems plausible enough
4. jefequeso -- his story seems plausible enough
5. NotFrenchYet -- just a tiny bit of suspicion there
6. Damnation -- suspect
7. Nmillar -- very suspect

If you're talking about your hint in #1290, that was after both my crumb and my case - it's possible you figured I have an investigative role from those two pieces of information and dropped your own hint accordingly. Both #1290 and your fullclaim in #1391 could have been faked with the information already posted.

While we're on the subject, can you be more specific about the "equipment" Primal's been importing?

Also:

Updated night actions list:
Tentative night actions list:

Night 1:
A Shattered Hand Mafia kills Joe.
Baz protects himself.
NFY investigates Baz.
"Red_Baron" roleblocks nmillar, but is blocked.

Night 2
Jefe targets Orry, but is blocked by Baz.
Bazilisek protects Jefe.
NFY investigates Jefe.
Baron 1-shot vigs Vitek.

Night 3
Remaining Shattered Hand kills Robbeasy.
Jefe compulsive-vigsTwilightBard.
Baz protects himself, but is blocked.
NFY investigates Primal.
Baron commutes.

Why?

The only way you could be 100% sure is if you were a sane (alignment) cop. You're nothing of the sort so how can you be 100% sure?

The forum says 11 minutes... please don't merge!

I find Baz's argument sort of convincing... nmillar is being weird and I don't think he's being totally straight with us regardless of his alignment.

Ah, but we can play a bit of a game with that. There are lots of power roles and Baz isn't going to say who he's going to protect is he? While you're an attractive target, there's a good chance the mafia will think you're protected and go for someone else so as not to waste the kill. Baz may not really have been protecting you in which case you're not useless.

I was actually referring to this.

SirPrimalForm is known to have ordered such materials to create such equipment.

ahh, mind games! I LOVE it!

So that puts much of the power in Baz's hands, then. Although if I'm explicitly given a target, chances are that the mafia will assume that I'm NOT going to be protected.

So yeah... Baz, that means you'll need to be pretty damn good at psychologically outwitting the mafia, because we can't share information without them hearing.

Coming back to this -- it's not a moot point, it's the weakest piece of the whole structure, I know that. It sort of hinges on Damnation being in it, too. Then you could explain it -- nmillar would be giving out the information with a delay of one day, if that makes sense.

I think I have figured it out. As long as both Jefe and Baz are town, and I'm pretty certain they are, this course of action should lead to a town win:

nmillar hammers SPF
game ends or 6 players go to night

Jefe kills R_B
Baz blocks me
NFY cops Damnation or myself
R_B protects Jefe
Damnation and myself do nothing.

If the game isn't over:

If 4 players come out alive -> Me and jefe are both alive and must be town. The other players will be two of Damnation, NFY, Baz. We lynch the first one on that list, and if game still isn't over Jefe nightkills the next one the following night.

If 5 players come out alive, lynch me. If game still isn't over, Jefe kills Damnation, Baz doc-blocks NFY. If the sun rises once more, lynch NFY.

Look it over to make sure I haven't missed anything, but I do think this should work.

Can players do their night actions even if they get NKed?

And I think I've missed something...what's RB's role exactly? I think it was supposedly a one-shot vigilante. How can he protect anyone?

He has claimed jack of all trades with a 1-shot protection and a 1-shot tracking left.
And in games I've modded, and the ones I've played where it came up, a players nightaction succeeds even if they are killed.

ahh, that changes things then. I assumed that an NK would result in night actions being nullified.

Ah. Indeed. Well. That threw a spanner in the works of my argument.

@Baz, I think I follow you... For your theory to work, assuming that with Orry dead nmillar receives no more files, you're saying that nmillar would have to have information on Orry AND Damnation from Day 1, and be giving it out with a day's delay?

@Zchinque: that's a pretty comprehensive plan... My gut reaction is to agree with it, but I'll need some time to figure out the angles (and try to retrace the logic...)

Reposting because he seems to have missed it:

Why?

The only way you could be 100% sure is if you were a sane (alignment) cop. You're nothing of the sort so how can you be 100% sure?