Posted February 09, 2012
What the hell, jefe? A full claim is a full claim, dammit. Anyways, I'm posting this:
* * *
The idea stems from two things I said at the end of #1397; it just took me a while to realise you can merge them together.
That is the idea. Nmillar is Orry's errand boy, the executive branch of the Shattered Hand mafia. Orry gives him instructions, nmillar carries them out.
* * *
What proof I have to support this theory is extremely fragmented, but it interlocks very nicely:
1. Nmillar claims to to have known Orry was scum from the very start (Oct 27). The breadcrumb, however, was only planted in post #354 (Nov 10). As I've been saying, this makes little sense. If you're town, and have confirmed information about scum, pretty much the only course of action is to share it immediately. Not hide it in a breadcrumb that is almost impossible to find (because it comes 14 days later than anyone could expect), and even when found is not easy to decode (see #1150-#1161). Why? Because as town, you win with town, even if you're dead. You can (and should) afford to risk your life with this information (especially if it's safe to assume there are protective roles around). Also, what if nmillar (presuming he is telling the truth) was nightkilled N1 and flipped "Town Vanilla", which he claims to be? Would anyone have bothered looking for a crumb? Of course not. And this extremely valuable information would be lost forever. If what I'm saying is true, however, it makes perfect sense: nmillar knows Orry is scum not because of some (rather unorthodox) whim of the mod, but because they're on the same team, and the crumb is intended as a fallback measure, and is deliberately designed to not be easy to spot.
2. (Assumption) Orry as the role cop shared his results with his scumbuddy nmillar at the start of each day. A traditional mafia role cop always has a delay of one full day before he can present his results to the rest of the crew; this is a possible way to overcome that, presumably due to the complexity of the setup in which every day counts.
3. I have compiled a list of what nmillar claimed to know/breadcrumbed and when. It looks like this:
Post #354, Nov 10, Day One (which started in #1, Oct 27): ORRYYRRO IS SCUM [confirmed later]
Post #1027, Jan 7, Day Three (which started in #814, Dec 6): TB IS RB [confirmed later]
Post #1136, Jan 16, Day Three: Damnation is vanilla town [unconfirmed]
Posts #1282 & #1290, Feb 1, Day Four (which started in #1242, Jan 30): SirPF is a scummy-sounding power role [unconfirmed]
You'll notice the timing of the TB crumb is even weirder than of the first one, almost a full month too late. Also, there's an information gap on day two, at the start of which nmillar claims to have received the file on Damnation (as per #1286). What I am driving at here is this: nmillar is obviously not giving us the information when it's fresh, but quite how long has he had it before he decided to share it? The schedule provided in #1286 may very well be a fabrication.
4. Nmillar chooses to give out the information in a very strange order, starting with Damnation. He first says Damn is town in #1109, Jan 13, and it takes a lot of persuasion (and 3 days RL time) to make him cough up the "vanilla town" info in #1136, Jan 16. And it takes some more persuasion before he finally gives us Orry (#1146/#1150, Jan 17). Why so late? Tentative answer: Orry's last post is dated Jan 9 (#1058). He's not coming back, might as well throw him under the bus?
5. A selection of nmillar quotes on Damnation:
Question B: If nmillar's working in the Criminal Records Bureau, why are the records given to him? Surely he has access to the system himself?
6. Why is nmillar refusing to say how are the files selected?
7. Why is nmillar refusing to answer Zchinque's question?
8. Why is nmillar now convinced SirPF is town? (compare #1423 with #1290)
* * *
The plot I'm describing here is complex, sure, but it could be pulled off if you were clever about it. The main thing here is this: nmillar's play is informative and pro-town on the surface, but the deeper you go, the more it starts looking like an illusion. So be careful with your trust, that's the lesson.
(Here's hoping I haven't messed up the markup.)
* * *
The idea stems from two things I said at the end of #1397; it just took me a while to realise you can merge them together.
bazilisek: Orry was apparently the brains of the outfit and a role cop, which means the kills were probably not his work. This means we're looking for a strong dumb type here as the other Shattered Hand.
Whoever is giving nmillar the files clearly has access to the police database, and we know it's not NFY. Now what was it we have found in Orryyrro's basement? ViolatorX: "The computer is on Alcadas police database, It looks like Orryrro was tapping in to try to obtain info on the people of the city."
And which nation is stereotypically portrayed as the "strong dumb type"? Russians, of course. That is the idea. Nmillar is Orry's errand boy, the executive branch of the Shattered Hand mafia. Orry gives him instructions, nmillar carries them out.
* * *
What proof I have to support this theory is extremely fragmented, but it interlocks very nicely:
1. Nmillar claims to to have known Orry was scum from the very start (Oct 27). The breadcrumb, however, was only planted in post #354 (Nov 10). As I've been saying, this makes little sense. If you're town, and have confirmed information about scum, pretty much the only course of action is to share it immediately. Not hide it in a breadcrumb that is almost impossible to find (because it comes 14 days later than anyone could expect), and even when found is not easy to decode (see #1150-#1161). Why? Because as town, you win with town, even if you're dead. You can (and should) afford to risk your life with this information (especially if it's safe to assume there are protective roles around). Also, what if nmillar (presuming he is telling the truth) was nightkilled N1 and flipped "Town Vanilla", which he claims to be? Would anyone have bothered looking for a crumb? Of course not. And this extremely valuable information would be lost forever. If what I'm saying is true, however, it makes perfect sense: nmillar knows Orry is scum not because of some (rather unorthodox) whim of the mod, but because they're on the same team, and the crumb is intended as a fallback measure, and is deliberately designed to not be easy to spot.
2. (Assumption) Orry as the role cop shared his results with his scumbuddy nmillar at the start of each day. A traditional mafia role cop always has a delay of one full day before he can present his results to the rest of the crew; this is a possible way to overcome that, presumably due to the complexity of the setup in which every day counts.
3. I have compiled a list of what nmillar claimed to know/breadcrumbed and when. It looks like this:
Post #354, Nov 10, Day One (which started in #1, Oct 27): ORRYYRRO IS SCUM [confirmed later]
Post #1027, Jan 7, Day Three (which started in #814, Dec 6): TB IS RB [confirmed later]
Post #1136, Jan 16, Day Three: Damnation is vanilla town [unconfirmed]
Posts #1282 & #1290, Feb 1, Day Four (which started in #1242, Jan 30): SirPF is a scummy-sounding power role [unconfirmed]
You'll notice the timing of the TB crumb is even weirder than of the first one, almost a full month too late. Also, there's an information gap on day two, at the start of which nmillar claims to have received the file on Damnation (as per #1286). What I am driving at here is this: nmillar is obviously not giving us the information when it's fresh, but quite how long has he had it before he decided to share it? The schedule provided in #1286 may very well be a fabrication.
4. Nmillar chooses to give out the information in a very strange order, starting with Damnation. He first says Damn is town in #1109, Jan 13, and it takes a lot of persuasion (and 3 days RL time) to make him cough up the "vanilla town" info in #1136, Jan 16. And it takes some more persuasion before he finally gives us Orry (#1146/#1150, Jan 17). Why so late? Tentative answer: Orry's last post is dated Jan 9 (#1058). He's not coming back, might as well throw him under the bus?
5. A selection of nmillar quotes on Damnation:
nmillar: Damnation - Gabriel Bortez. Runs a cafe. His only criminal activity was possession of cannabis 5 years ago.
nmillar: I'm still fairly certain that Damnation is town, but I agree, TwilightBard turning out to be scum does throw up an element of doubt.
nmillar: [SirPrimalform: So do you have other reasons for considering Damnation town?]
No, I'm basing it entirely on the information I was given.
I'm asking: where did the conclusion Damnation is vanilla come from, when nmillar isn't even quite sure if he's town or not, and why was it dropped so quickly? And let me echo SirPrimalform's #1139: No, I'm basing it entirely on the information I was given.
SirPrimalform: It does make me wonder though how you [nmillar] know his alignment, name and some flavour. If you were a flavour or role cop then the only reason you'd know alignment would be because you're mafia and therefore know who isn't.
5. Let's talk flavour now. Nmillar claims this in #1391: nmillar: Originally from Russia, I moved to Eastern Idyllia to escape the gang warfare of my homeland. I joined the Idyllia Criminal Records Bureau to help put members of the remaining criminal organisations on the island behind bars.
After the assassination of Dimitar Cade, I was assigned to work on the case.
I am Sergei Borslov, Vanilla Townie.
Question A: Isn't it odd to give a job like that to a foreigner who doesn't speak the language very well (cf #1420)? After the assassination of Dimitar Cade, I was assigned to work on the case.
I am Sergei Borslov, Vanilla Townie.
Question B: If nmillar's working in the Criminal Records Bureau, why are the records given to him? Surely he has access to the system himself?
6. Why is nmillar refusing to say how are the files selected?
7. Why is nmillar refusing to answer Zchinque's question?
8. Why is nmillar now convinced SirPF is town? (compare #1423 with #1290)
* * *
The plot I'm describing here is complex, sure, but it could be pulled off if you were clever about it. The main thing here is this: nmillar's play is informative and pro-town on the surface, but the deeper you go, the more it starts looking like an illusion. So be careful with your trust, that's the lesson.
(Here's hoping I haven't messed up the markup.)